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原油月报:供需失衡或愈加显著-20250905
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 12:11
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report - Supply-Demand Imbalance May Become More Pronounced [1] - Author: Xiao Yu - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Monthly View - Last Month's View: In August, attention was on the trend of diesel cracking. If diesel cracking continued to weaken, it would put pressure on oil prices. There were also significant disturbances such as Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ would further reduce production in the fourth quarter [9] - This Month's Price Trend: Oil prices declined at the beginning of August due to optimistic expectations for the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Two positive EIA weekly reports and slow progress in the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month, but oil prices were pressured again as OPEC+ might increase production [9] - Fundamental Factors: Crude oil supply is expected to increase continuously. The US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period, and diesel cracking remains strong [9] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled. If there is no substantial progress, it may lead to sanctions risks [9] - Fed's September Meeting: It is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts [9] - Monthly View: Crude oil is still under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with the seasonal weakness in demand and the US autumn maintenance, the supply-demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short-term interference factors include the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanctions, and the decision of the Fed's September meeting [9] Group 3: Monthly Highlights - Global Near-Term Spread: The global near-term spread showed a downward trend in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][12] - Crack Spread: The crack spread still has support. The US spot crack spread showed a volatile trend, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly [14][15] - OPEC+ Production: From the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ has generally met the production increase targets, with Kazakhstan still overproducing significantly. From the IEA monthly report, some countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have overproduced. OPEC+ is expected to continue to increase production to regain market share [19][20] - US Refinery Operations: As of August 29, the US refinery operating rate declined for the second consecutive week. With the end of the driving peak season, refineries will enter the autumn maintenance period, which will directly suppress crude oil demand [22] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled, and the fundamental differences between the two sides on territorial and security issues are difficult to resolve. The lack of progress may add risk premiums to the market [23] - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, but the subsequent rate cut path depends on economic data and the Fed's independence. Generally, preventive rate cuts have a negative impact on crude oil, but if core inflation drops significantly, rate cuts can be positive [26] - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas in the next 7 days [28] Group 4: Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Trends: The report presents the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC's basket price, WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude oil [31] - WTI and Brent Futures Positions: The report shows the net long positions of futures and options for WTI and Brent, as well as the positions of different market participants such as swap dealers, managed funds, and producers [33][36] - Crude Oil Futures Structure: The report displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, including the prices of different contract months [39] - Crude Oil Calendar Spreads: The report shows the trends of calendar spreads for different crude oils, such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [42] - Cross-Market Futures and Spot Spreads: The report presents the cross-market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [45][48] - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of crude oil to different regions, with price increases for Asian destinations and price decreases for Mediterranean destinations [55] - Refined Product Prices and Crack Spreads: The report shows the prices and crack spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil in different regions, including the US, Europe, and Asia [60][62] Group 5: Supply-Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: The report presents the supply of global, non-OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, including production, capacity, and remaining capacity [81][83][86] - Global Rig Count: The report shows the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of oil and gas rigs in different regions of the US [95] - US Refinery Shutdowns: The report presents the shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [99][101] - Global Crude Oil Demand: The report shows the demand for global, OECD, and non-OECD crude oil, as well as the demand in different countries and regions [103][106][109] - Crude Oil Inventory: The report presents the inventory of crude oil in the US, OECD, and different countries and regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve [112][115][117] - EIA Balance Sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the global crude oil supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025 to 2026 [132]