投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油 弱势格局难改 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，国内外原油期货价格虽然企稳反弹，但是上行阻力依然存在。全球原油市场的核心逻辑已从前 期地缘驱动转向基本面主导，供应宽松与需求疲软的格局逐渐清晰，油价中期存在下行压力。 供应过剩已成共识 OPEC+虽然在 11 月初宣布 2026 年一季度暂停增产，但在此之前已完成累计 220 万桶/日的增产，完全 回补此前减产规模。且部分成员国增产执行率不足 80%，剩余产能释放压力仍存。换言之，当前 OPEC+ 的策略调整未能扭转供应过剩趋势。受此影响，国际能源署（IEA）连续 6 个月上调全球原油供给过剩预 期。预计 2026 年全球日供应量将超出需求近 400 万桶，过剩规模创纪录已成定局。另外，非 OPEC+产油 国成为供应增量的核心贡献者。美国原油产量稳居 1386.2 万桶/日的历史峰值，页岩油技术效率提升与资 本开支灵活性助推产量持续超预期。此外，巴西、挪威等国产量亦屡创新高。俄罗斯虽遭受制裁及无人机 袭击，炼厂加工量或从 525 万桶/日回落至 500 万桶/日左右，但仍通过影子船队、非美元结算等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have led to a decrease in risk aversion, while the MYZ situation has escalated, impacting market dynamics and leading to significant fluctuations in gold and oil prices [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced a rebound after a pullback, forming a double top resistance around 4058, followed by a successful test of support [3]. - The trading strategy involved buying near 3947 and selling around 3995, with opportunities for both long and short positions due to high volatility [3]. - The focus for gold is on breaking the 4058/59 resistance level for potential further gains [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The easing of supply concerns due to a temporary peace in the Middle East has contributed to a bearish outlook for oil, with ongoing worries about demand amid U.S. government shutdown fears [5]. - The strategy has been to maintain a bearish stance, with successful predictions of price movements down to the 59/58 range after breaking 60 [5]. - The recommendation is to continue with a short position on oil during rebounds, particularly around 60.7, with a target of 59/58 [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report - Supply-Demand Imbalance May Become More Pronounced [1] - Author: Xiao Yu - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Monthly View - Last Month's View: In August, attention was on the trend of diesel cracking. If diesel cracking continued to weaken, it would put pressure on oil prices. There were also significant disturbances such as Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ would further reduce production in the fourth quarter [9] - This Month's Price Trend: Oil prices declined at the beginning of August due to optimistic expectations for the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Two positive EIA weekly reports and slow progress in the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month, but oil prices were pressured again as OPEC+ might increase production [9] - Fundamental Factors: Crude oil supply is expected to increase continuously. The US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period, and diesel cracking remains strong [9] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled. If there is no substantial progress, it may lead to sanctions risks [9] - Fed's September Meeting: It is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts [9] - Monthly View: Crude oil is still under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with the seasonal weakness in demand and the US autumn maintenance, the supply-demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short-term interference factors include the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanctions, and the decision of the Fed's September meeting [9] Group 3: Monthly Highlights - Global Near-Term Spread: The global near-term spread showed a downward trend in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][12] - Crack Spread: The crack spread still has support. The US spot crack spread showed a volatile trend, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly [14][15] - OPEC+ Production: From the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ has generally met the production increase targets, with Kazakhstan still overproducing significantly. From the IEA monthly report, some countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have overproduced. OPEC+ is expected to continue to increase production to regain market share [19][20] - US Refinery Operations: As of August 29, the US refinery operating rate declined for the second consecutive week. With the end of the driving peak season, refineries will enter the autumn maintenance period, which will directly suppress crude oil demand [22] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled, and the fundamental differences between the two sides on territorial and security issues are difficult to resolve. The lack of progress may add risk premiums to the market [23] - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, but the subsequent rate cut path depends on economic data and the Fed's independence. Generally, preventive rate cuts have a negative impact on crude oil, but if core inflation drops significantly, rate cuts can be positive [26] - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas in the next 7 days [28] Group 4: Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Trends: The report presents the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC's basket price, WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude oil [31] - WTI and Brent Futures Positions: The report shows the net long positions of futures and options for WTI and Brent, as well as the positions of different market participants such as swap dealers, managed funds, and producers [33][36] - Crude Oil Futures Structure: The report displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, including the prices of different contract months [39] - Crude Oil Calendar Spreads: The report shows the trends of calendar spreads for different crude oils, such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [42] - Cross-Market Futures and Spot Spreads: The report presents the cross-market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [45][48] - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of crude oil to different regions, with price increases for Asian destinations and price decreases for Mediterranean destinations [55] - Refined Product Prices and Crack Spreads: The report shows the prices and crack spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil in different regions, including the US, Europe, and Asia [60][62] Group 5: Supply-Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: The report presents the supply of global, non-OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, including production, capacity, and remaining capacity [81][83][86] - Global Rig Count: The report shows the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of oil and gas rigs in different regions of the US [95] - US Refinery Shutdowns: The report presents the shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [99][101] - Global Crude Oil Demand: The report shows the demand for global, OECD, and non-OECD crude oil, as well as the demand in different countries and regions [103][106][109] - Crude Oil Inventory: The report presents the inventory of crude oil in the US, OECD, and different countries and regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve [112][115][117] - EIA Balance Sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the global crude oil supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025 to 2026 [132]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing supply-demand imbalances in the global oil market [1] - The report forecasts an average surplus supply of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [1] - OECD member countries are projected to account for one-third of the global inventory increase, with an estimated rise of about 270 million barrels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the dual pressure of inventory buildup and declining oil demand in OECD countries will push the fair value of Brent crude oil down from the current level of approximately $75 [1] - Although oil prices may fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, significant inventory pressure is expected to exacerbate in 2026, leading to a drop below current market expectations [1] - If China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from an average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 compared to the baseline forecast [1] Group 3 - As of the report's release, international oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend, with Brent crude futures at $67 per barrel and WTI at $63 per barrel, both significantly lower than their peaks earlier in the year [2] - Market analysis suggests that slowing global economic growth is leading to weak demand, compounded by increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, heightening concerns over oversupply in the market [2]

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - President Trump announced a meeting with President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, with further details to be provided later [1] - The meeting is anticipated to influence geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to oil prices and supply chains [11] Group 2: US-India Trade Relations - India has suspended plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from the US following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, marking a significant response to the tariffs [2] - The overall tariff rate on Indian goods exported to the US has reached 50% due to the additional tariffs imposed by Trump [3] - India's Ministry of External Affairs criticized the US tariffs as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," indicating potential retaliatory actions to protect national interests [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have experienced a seven-day decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $63.44 per barrel, marking the longest consecutive drop since December 2023 [8] - Factors contributing to the oil price decline include OPEC+ announcing an increase in production and geopolitical tensions easing due to the upcoming US-Russia meeting [10] - Analysts suggest that the structural imbalance between supply expansion and weak demand is leading to continued pressure on oil prices, with OPEC+ actions likely to keep average prices low in the long term [12] Group 4: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the upcoming employment data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will implement significant interest rate cuts [5] - A weak jobs report could lead to increased concerns about inflation among decision-makers [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak performance in crude oil futures, with the main contract reported at 453.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.90% [1] Group 2 - Market rumors suggest that the U.S. government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions (SRE), equivalent to 1.36 billion gallons of blending obligations, which will be redistributed to refiners in the coming years [2] - A European official stated that the U.S. has "not yet been convinced" to accept the G7's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, with the EU suggesting a reference level of $50 per barrel [2] - India's crude oil imports in April decreased by 1.0% year-on-year to 21.2 million tons, while gasoline exports increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons [2] Group 3 - Huawen Futures reports that Kazakhstan's crude oil production in May significantly exceeded the OPEC+ quota, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. There are expectations for greater production increases in June and potential plans for further increases in July, which may lead to substantial supply pressure on the market [3] - Baocan Futures warns of the risk of a U.S. fiscal crisis in June, which could trigger a new financial crisis and negatively impact commodity prices, including crude oil. Long-term projections indicate a gradual slowdown in crude oil demand growth, maintaining the trend of supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on oil prices [3]