来源：第一财经 1月3日，特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取军事打击并抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，此举标志着地缘政治紧张 局势出现戏剧性升级，这个探明储量最大的产油国出口随即陷入停滞。 自1989年美国入侵巴拿马、推翻军事领导人诺列加以来，这是华盛顿首次对拉美地区采取如此直接的军 事干预行动。与此同时，产油国联盟OPEC+将于周日召开会议，商讨原油产量相关事宜，地缘政治因 素给市场担忧的供需失衡问题带来不确定性。 短期油价影响或有限 刚过去的2025年，国际石油市场迎来了五年来最大的年度跌幅。作为全球原油价格基准的布伦特原油全 年下跌约19%，美国原油价格跌幅则接近20%。此前OPEC+在实施多年减产措施后扩大产量，再加上美 国原油去年末的日产量创下超过1380万桶的历史新高，多重因素共同对市场形成压力。 对于新年伊始委内瑞拉的政治危机，机构普遍认为短期内不太可能对能源市场造成巨大冲击。 哈里斯金融集团管理合伙人考克斯（Jamie Cox）评论道，"市场的整体反应将较为平淡 。大型石油企 业及钻井公司的股价可能会迎来一波买盘支撑，因为市场会逐渐滋生对重建委内瑞拉石油产业所带来潜 在利好的投机情绪。" 加拿大皇家银行资本市 ...

"静态平衡表显示，原油供需失衡的格局将从2025年下半年延续至2026年，其价格中枢面临下移压 力。"在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第十期中，银河期货研究所高级研究员赵若晨对 2026年原油市场进行了深度分析。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原 油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿 减产已在2025年三季度提前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应 弹性约在100万桶/日。 非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的 1386万桶/日。尽管行业对2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意 的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需 求增速已下降至1%左右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求 ...

非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的1386万桶/日。尽管行业对 2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将 继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需求增速已下降至1%左 右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求因新能源替代而进入下降通道。未来，原油的需求增长将主要依靠化工原料(石脑油、NGL)来 支撑。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿减产已在2025年三季度提 前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应弹性约在100万桶/日。 具体到主要消费国，赵若晨认为，美国油品需求整体平稳；中国则呈现"原料加工需求尚可，下游需求偏弱"的特征，汽油、柴 油需求因新能源替代和经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current imbalance between supply and demand in the crude oil market is irreversible. High inventories and capital outflows continue to suppress market sentiment. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases, it is difficult to change the medium - term oversupply trend. Geopolitical events can only trigger technical rebounds but cannot reverse the downward direction determined by fundamentals. The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future [2][4]. Summary by Related Content Supply Situation - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, but had already increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day before that, fully compensating for previous production cuts. Some member countries have an implementation rate of less than 80% for production increases, and there is still pressure to release remaining production capacity. The IEA has raised its forecast of global crude oil supply surplus for 6 consecutive months, expecting a daily supply surplus of nearly 4 million barrels in 2026 [2]. - Non - OPEC+ oil - producing countries are the core contributors to supply growth. The US crude oil production remains at a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day. Brazil, Norway and other countries have also seen record - high production. Russia can still maintain its export capacity through shadow fleets and non - US dollar settlements [2]. Demand Situation - Slow global economic recovery restricts energy consumption. The IEA expects the global crude oil demand growth rate to be only 0.8 - 1.2 million barrels per day in the next few years, significantly lower than the historical average. Demand in the European and American economies is particularly weak, and the Asian market cannot offset the overall decline in global demand [3]. - Weak demand growth has led to a rise in global oil inventories to a nearly 4 - year high. The price of WTI crude oil futures' forward contracts is higher than that of near - term contracts, and the global offshore oil storage capacity has continued to rise, with an increase of 92 million barrels in October and nearly 200 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea [3]. Market Outlook - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Key variables to focus on include OPEC+ policy adjustments, the safety of Russian export facilities, changes in global refinery profits, and the pace of economic recovery. In the short term, be vigilant against rebound opportunities caused by the escalation of geopolitical risks, but in the medium and long term, the weak pattern of the crude oil market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have led to a decrease in risk aversion, while the MYZ situation has escalated, impacting market dynamics and leading to significant fluctuations in gold and oil prices [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced a rebound after a pullback, forming a double top resistance around 4058, followed by a successful test of support [3]. - The trading strategy involved buying near 3947 and selling around 3995, with opportunities for both long and short positions due to high volatility [3]. - The focus for gold is on breaking the 4058/59 resistance level for potential further gains [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The easing of supply concerns due to a temporary peace in the Middle East has contributed to a bearish outlook for oil, with ongoing worries about demand amid U.S. government shutdown fears [5]. - The strategy has been to maintain a bearish stance, with successful predictions of price movements down to the 59/58 range after breaking 60 [5]. - The recommendation is to continue with a short position on oil during rebounds, particularly around 60.7, with a target of 59/58 [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report - Supply-Demand Imbalance May Become More Pronounced [1] - Author: Xiao Yu - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Monthly View - Last Month's View: In August, attention was on the trend of diesel cracking. If diesel cracking continued to weaken, it would put pressure on oil prices. There were also significant disturbances such as Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ would further reduce production in the fourth quarter [9] - This Month's Price Trend: Oil prices declined at the beginning of August due to optimistic expectations for the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Two positive EIA weekly reports and slow progress in the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month, but oil prices were pressured again as OPEC+ might increase production [9] - Fundamental Factors: Crude oil supply is expected to increase continuously. The US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period, and diesel cracking remains strong [9] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled. If there is no substantial progress, it may lead to sanctions risks [9] - Fed's September Meeting: It is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts [9] - Monthly View: Crude oil is still under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with the seasonal weakness in demand and the US autumn maintenance, the supply-demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short-term interference factors include the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanctions, and the decision of the Fed's September meeting [9] Group 3: Monthly Highlights - Global Near-Term Spread: The global near-term spread showed a downward trend in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][12] - Crack Spread: The crack spread still has support. The US spot crack spread showed a volatile trend, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly [14][15] - OPEC+ Production: From the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ has generally met the production increase targets, with Kazakhstan still overproducing significantly. From the IEA monthly report, some countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have overproduced. OPEC+ is expected to continue to increase production to regain market share [19][20] - US Refinery Operations: As of August 29, the US refinery operating rate declined for the second consecutive week. With the end of the driving peak season, refineries will enter the autumn maintenance period, which will directly suppress crude oil demand [22] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled, and the fundamental differences between the two sides on territorial and security issues are difficult to resolve. The lack of progress may add risk premiums to the market [23] - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, but the subsequent rate cut path depends on economic data and the Fed's independence. Generally, preventive rate cuts have a negative impact on crude oil, but if core inflation drops significantly, rate cuts can be positive [26] - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas in the next 7 days [28] Group 4: Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Trends: The report presents the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC's basket price, WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude oil [31] - WTI and Brent Futures Positions: The report shows the net long positions of futures and options for WTI and Brent, as well as the positions of different market participants such as swap dealers, managed funds, and producers [33][36] - Crude Oil Futures Structure: The report displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, including the prices of different contract months [39] - Crude Oil Calendar Spreads: The report shows the trends of calendar spreads for different crude oils, such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [42] - Cross-Market Futures and Spot Spreads: The report presents the cross-market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [45][48] - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of crude oil to different regions, with price increases for Asian destinations and price decreases for Mediterranean destinations [55] - Refined Product Prices and Crack Spreads: The report shows the prices and crack spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil in different regions, including the US, Europe, and Asia [60][62] Group 5: Supply-Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: The report presents the supply of global, non-OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, including production, capacity, and remaining capacity [81][83][86] - Global Rig Count: The report shows the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of oil and gas rigs in different regions of the US [95] - US Refinery Shutdowns: The report presents the shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [99][101] - Global Crude Oil Demand: The report shows the demand for global, OECD, and non-OECD crude oil, as well as the demand in different countries and regions [103][106][109] - Crude Oil Inventory: The report presents the inventory of crude oil in the US, OECD, and different countries and regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve [112][115][117] - EIA Balance Sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the global crude oil supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025 to 2026 [132]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing supply-demand imbalances in the global oil market [1] - The report forecasts an average surplus supply of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [1] - OECD member countries are projected to account for one-third of the global inventory increase, with an estimated rise of about 270 million barrels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the dual pressure of inventory buildup and declining oil demand in OECD countries will push the fair value of Brent crude oil down from the current level of approximately $75 [1] - Although oil prices may fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, significant inventory pressure is expected to exacerbate in 2026, leading to a drop below current market expectations [1] - If China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from an average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 compared to the baseline forecast [1] Group 3 - As of the report's release, international oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend, with Brent crude futures at $67 per barrel and WTI at $63 per barrel, both significantly lower than their peaks earlier in the year [2] - Market analysis suggests that slowing global economic growth is leading to weak demand, compounded by increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, heightening concerns over oversupply in the market [2]

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - President Trump announced a meeting with President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, with further details to be provided later [1] - The meeting is anticipated to influence geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to oil prices and supply chains [11] Group 2: US-India Trade Relations - India has suspended plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from the US following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, marking a significant response to the tariffs [2] - The overall tariff rate on Indian goods exported to the US has reached 50% due to the additional tariffs imposed by Trump [3] - India's Ministry of External Affairs criticized the US tariffs as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," indicating potential retaliatory actions to protect national interests [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have experienced a seven-day decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $63.44 per barrel, marking the longest consecutive drop since December 2023 [8] - Factors contributing to the oil price decline include OPEC+ announcing an increase in production and geopolitical tensions easing due to the upcoming US-Russia meeting [10] - Analysts suggest that the structural imbalance between supply expansion and weak demand is leading to continued pressure on oil prices, with OPEC+ actions likely to keep average prices low in the long term [12] Group 4: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the upcoming employment data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will implement significant interest rate cuts [5] - A weak jobs report could lead to increased concerns about inflation among decision-makers [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak performance in crude oil futures, with the main contract reported at 453.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.90% [1] Group 2 - Market rumors suggest that the U.S. government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions (SRE), equivalent to 1.36 billion gallons of blending obligations, which will be redistributed to refiners in the coming years [2] - A European official stated that the U.S. has "not yet been convinced" to accept the G7's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, with the EU suggesting a reference level of $50 per barrel [2] - India's crude oil imports in April decreased by 1.0% year-on-year to 21.2 million tons, while gasoline exports increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons [2] Group 3 - Huawen Futures reports that Kazakhstan's crude oil production in May significantly exceeded the OPEC+ quota, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. There are expectations for greater production increases in June and potential plans for further increases in July, which may lead to substantial supply pressure on the market [3] - Baocan Futures warns of the risk of a U.S. fiscal crisis in June, which could trigger a new financial crisis and negatively impact commodity prices, including crude oil. Long-term projections indicate a gradual slowdown in crude oil demand growth, maintaining the trend of supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on oil prices [3]