Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].