黄金历史高位走反复，原油反弹承压继续空！ 最新数据显示全球最大的实物黄金持仓机构ETF近期持续增持黄金，强烈的看涨意愿在市场不断发酵，主要的因素还是近期美 国的经济数据支撑美联储进一步降息，提振了美联储来年一月份继续降息的预期，其二中东地缘政治冲突不断，避险情绪推动 黄金走高，其三白银钯金等强势的需求推动价格不断刷新历史新高，然后给到黄金一定带动，节前黄金先是冲高到4525一线刷 新历史高点之后走出一波可观的回落跌破4500之后维持窄幅整理，晚间走出一波加速最低触及4448附近然后如期企稳反抽，我 们晚间跟大家分享的4450附近多单也是成功兑现到了目标位，今天早盘开盘黄金突破4500一线之后加速拉伸再度冲击一波历史 记录触及4531一线然后承压回落，目前维持高位整理，操作上关注4500分水岭，回踩企稳接多，跌破4500可以顺势看延续调整 原油方面，一方面是需求的相对疲软数据，虽然降息预期有望提振原油需求，同时中东地区的地缘政治冲突保持，以及美对委 内瑞拉的制裁也给到了美原油供应端的炒作空间，原油近期也是走出了一波延续性的反弹走势，但是目前来看再度开始承压 了，我们节前跟大家分享的58.6附近空单目前继续持仓中 ...

今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第2个工作日，当前预计油价下调60元/吨，折合每升油价下调0.05-0.06 元，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加5元/吨，跌破下调红线，油价有下跌可能。 注意，油价下跌中 受伊拉克复产以及市场对俄乌和谈预期又有升温的影响，昨日国际油价继续走跌，国内油价预计跌幅也 稍稍扩大。距离本轮油价调整还有近两周时间，市场目前对原油供应过剩的担忧仍存，油价能继续下跌 吗？ 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：下跌0.76%，收于58.39美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌0.62%，收于 62.11美元/桶。今日国际油价继续震荡，截至发稿，美原油暂报58.41美元/桶，涨幅0.03%。 昨晚公布的美国10月JOLTs职位空缺数环比增至767万，升至五个月来的最高水平，市场预期715万。压 制原油需求前景，加剧了市场对原油需求疲软的担忧，进一步压低昨日油价。 据今早公布的数据显示，美国上周API原油库存录得减少477.9万桶，市场预期是增加175万桶。不过汽 油库存大增700万桶，馏分油库存增加103万桶。库存数据的分化直接导致今日油价震荡，市场正等待今 晚的EIA原油库存数据。 总的来说，国际油价暂时保持震荡中 ...

Group 1 - The current expected oil price adjustment is a decrease of 60 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter, with a potential for further decline [1] - International oil prices have shown a rebound, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 1.02% to $59.70 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.97% to $63.35 per barrel [4] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its January Arab Light crude oil price for Asian customers to a premium of 60 cents over the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021, indicating oversupply and weak demand [4] Group 2 - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 191,000, lower than the market expectation of 220,000, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index for September may influence oil price trends [4] - The next oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the collective decline in domestic crude oil-related products is primarily driven by concerns over demand outlook, geopolitical factors, and OPEC+ production increases [1][2][3] Group 2 - Demand outlook is pessimistic, particularly in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of crude oil, overshadowing the potential positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the reinstatement of UN sanctions on Iran and comments from U.S. President Trump, are contributing to market fears regarding oil supply stability [1][2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October, leading to a persistent oversupply in the market [1][2] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting from tight to loose, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations influencing commodity markets [2] - OPEC+ production in August reached 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day from the previous month, contributing to the oversupply situation [2] - Geopolitical risk premiums are rising due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may further impact oil prices [2] Group 4 - Future OPEC+ production policies remain uncertain; increased production could exacerbate supply pressures, while reduced production might alleviate oversupply [3] - Seasonal demand changes are expected as the summer peak electricity demand in Middle Eastern countries ends, leading to decreased crude oil power generation needs [3] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global economic recovery and subsequent oil demand will be crucial to monitor [3]

Group 1 - OPEC and OPEC+ have agreed to increase oil production starting in September, leading to a decline in international oil prices and negatively impacting the Hong Kong stock market, particularly oil stocks [1] - Analysts express concerns over oil demand due to weak economic data from the US, including a cooling job market and the fastest contraction in factory activity in nine months, which has raised worries about oil demand [1] - OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, further pressuring oil prices [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of major oil companies in Hong Kong shows declines, with Yanchang Petroleum International down 2.38% to 0.410, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation down 1.15% to 4.280, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 1.18% to 18.440 [2] - The total market capitalization of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is 518.93 billion, while China Petroleum has a market cap of 1.34 trillion [2] - The overall trend indicates a negative sentiment in the oil sector, reflected in the stock prices of major players [2]

Group 1 - OPEC and OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1] - Concerns over weak demand for oil have arisen due to a series of disappointing economic data from the United States, including a cooling job market and the fastest contraction in factory activity in nine months [1] - The decline in oil prices has negatively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, with major oil stocks experiencing collective drops [1] Group 2 - Yanchang Petroleum International saw a decrease of 2.38%, with a latest price of 0.410 and a market capitalization of 451 million [2] - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) dropped by 1.62%, with a latest price of 7.300 and a market capitalization of 1.34 trillion [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) fell by 1.18%, with a latest price of 18.440 and a market capitalization of 876.452 billion [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) decreased by 1.15%, with a latest price of 4.280 and a market capitalization of 518.93 billion [2] - CNOOC Services saw a decline of 0.72%, with a latest price of 6.890 and a market capitalization of 32.876 billion [2] - Kunlun Energy experienced a slight decrease of 0.27%, with a latest price of 7.520 and a market capitalization of 651.147 million [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].