宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅下跌的走势，期价最高上涨至 2430 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2392 元/吨，收盘时小幅下跌 1.16%至 2395 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 123 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格走低，叠加甲醇供需结构偏弱，预 计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 26 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围减弱 能化震荡整理 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15885 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.28%至 15885 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔至 995 元/吨。胶市多空分歧，宏观预期改善博弈产业因子利空，预计后市国 内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z000161 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素压制 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15820 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.25%至 15820 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔至 1035 元/吨。受需求因子偏强支撑，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约 或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，弱势下行， 小幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2420 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2385 元/吨，收盘时小幅收低 1.40%至 2396 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 103 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格大幅回落拖累，叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持偏弱格局运行。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 13 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围消化 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡整理， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15800 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.13%至 15800 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 1010 元/吨。受益于国内汽车产销量数据好于预期，重卡销量数据同 比增长。在需求因素驱动下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持 震荡偏强的走势。 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2497 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2477 元/吨，收盘时略微收低 0.28%至 2479 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大 至 104 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格冲高回落影响，叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡偏弱的走势。 予的期货从业资格证 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly in the refining, olefins, and polyester sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity in certain areas, with a significant portion of refining capacity being outdated. The report anticipates that accelerating the retirement of these old facilities could lead to a recovery in refining profitability [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new capacity additions and optimizing existing capacity to mitigate excessive competition, aligning with the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out inefficient production [5][11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell 3.24% to $65.16 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $68.79 and $65.79, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 9% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 542, down 47 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [31]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the refining sector is experiencing a significant oversupply, with nearly half of the capacity being outdated. The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential investment [4][5]. - The Singapore refining margin increased to $15.31 per barrel, indicating some improvement in refining profitability despite the overall low profit levels [4]. Polyester Sector - The PTA market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 1.45% to 4790.2 RMB per ton. The report suggests that if new supply is strictly controlled, the profitability of leading polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials could improve [11][15]. - The report highlights that the polyester industry is entering a phase of orderly growth, with expectations for a gradual improvement in profitability as new capacity additions slow down [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to their favorable competitive positions and potential for profitability improvement [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend as the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel has cooled down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [4]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures are expected to remain weak and volatile under the pressure of bearish sentiment, also because of the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [8]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.56 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant increase of 7.23% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant increase of 293,600 tons compared with 1.7043 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 596 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 72,600 tons compared with the same period last year. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week of June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a decrease of 59,900 tons compared with 427,300 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 49 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and volatile trend, with an increase in market bullish power. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 13,770 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | 80 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,655 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,391 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 264 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 484.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 508.6 yuan/barrel | - 10.0 yuan/barrel | - 23.9 yuan/barrel | +10.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol: There are charts related to methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34]. - Crude Oil: There are charts related to crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a slight decline. With the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a significant decline. Due to the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East subsided, and the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, declining weakly, and a significant decline. With the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and the subsiding of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. Under the suppression of bearish sentiment, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures will maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [9]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decline of 7.56 percentage points [9]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [10]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year slight increase of about 1% [10]. Methanol - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 293,600 tons [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [11]. - As of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures margin was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 596 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 72,600 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week ending June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59,900 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 49. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 300,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [13]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [14]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a trend of stabilizing in a volatile manner, and the bullish force in the market has increased. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [15] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 13,665 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | 185 yuan/ton | +335 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,665 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan/ton | 2,379 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 286 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 531.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 518.6 yuan/barrel | - 55.9 yuan/barrel | +12.8 yuan/barrel | +55.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts including crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The price center of the contract during the session slightly shifted up to 13,870 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.29% at 13,870 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 845 yuan/ton. With Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas in full tapping, and the Sino - Thai consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports, along with the improved macro - expectations after the leaders of China and the US communicated, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,466 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,397 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.37% at 2,455 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. Due to the potential breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the Israeli attack on Iran, and the subsequent military retaliation from Iran, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, which may lead to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and disrupt overseas supply. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and upward - biased pattern [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, adding positions, oscillating weakly downward at a high level, and closing slightly lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 531.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 508.3 yuan/barrel, closing with a slight decrease of 0.81% at 524.9 yuan/barrel. After the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the crude oil supply may face a shortage risk. After the short - term positive factors are digested, differences between bulls and bears in the oil market have emerged. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%, and the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [8]. - As of June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.60 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.9827 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 840 tons, and a significant increase of 241,500 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The acetic acid operating rate was 98.81%, a week - on - week increase of 10.99%. The MTBE operating rate was 49.33%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 211 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 278 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 336,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 177,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. As of the week of June 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 379,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 29,600 tons [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 442, a week - on - week decrease of 19 and a year - on - year decrease of 50. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.428 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 228,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 432 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.644 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 27.237 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.683 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 403,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 237,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown an oscillating and stable trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 10, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average. As of June 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 182,440 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 26,921 contracts and a significant increase of 46,905 contracts or 34.41% compared with the May average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 13,870 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,625 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,455 yuan/ton | - 9 yuan/ton | + 170 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 508.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 524.9 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.5 yuan/barrel | + 7.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. The methanol futures contract 2509 may show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad are likely to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.80% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 86,900 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, and the general trade inventory was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 0.25%. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The China Warehousing Index was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, about 83,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 5% from April and an increase of about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 435,500, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [8][9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, a slight increase of 0.38% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.81% month - on - month, and a significant increase of 10.55% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9859 million tons, a slight increase of 19,200 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 71,900 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 290,900 tons from the same period last year. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.40%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.03%, a slight decrease of 3.82% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was 87.82%, a slight increase of 3.90% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was 45.09%, a significant increase of 5.30% week - on - week. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.97%, a slight increase of 1.06 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 4.24 percentage points month - on - month. As of June 6, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 133 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 118 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant decrease of 205 yuan/ton month - on - month. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 458,400 tons, a significant increase of 64,000 tons week - on - week, a slight increase of 43,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1,800 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 370,600 tons, a slight increase of 15,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 66,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 22,500 tons from the same period last year [10][11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 461, a slight decrease of 4 rigs week - on - week and a decrease of 35 rigs from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.408 million barrels, a slight increase of 7,000 barrels per day week - on - week and an increase of 308,000 barrels per day year - on - year. - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 436 million barrels, a significant decrease of 4.304 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19.863 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.086 million barrels, a slight increase of 576,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 401.8 million barrels, a slight increase of 509,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.4%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 2.00 percentage points year - on - year. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 167,957 contracts, a slight increase of 2,263 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts or 5.75% from the May average. As of June 3, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 155,519 contracts, a significant increase of 7,688 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts or 14.74% from the May average [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,750 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,725 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | -75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | 2,277 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +63 yuan/ton | -13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 474.3 yuan/barrel | +8.2 yuan/barrel | -23.6 yuan/barrel | -8.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [17][30][43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears after the previous bullish factors have been digested. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The methanol market has also entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic methanol futures price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons (0.73%). The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons (7.23%), a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [11][13]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak volatile trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts, and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts (9.39%) compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts, and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts (37.68%) compared with the April average [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 15,090 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +60 yuan/ton | +145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,532 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | +212 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 18.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | +18.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [17][19][21]. - Methanol: The report mentions charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc [41][43][45]