投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-26 俄乌和谈进展主导油价，聚烯烃期价创 近年新低 国际原油期货在周二夜盘大幅下滑，彭博报道称乌克兰已同意修订后 的和平协议条款，尽管仍有若干细节问题待敲定。Brent一度下跌2.4%， 随后收复部分失地。美乌官员已在日内瓦展开谈判，美俄代表赴阿布扎比 举行会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯原油海运量在截至11月23日的四周内连续第 五周下滑，10月中旬被制裁以来俄罗斯原油日发货量下滑了53万桶。原油 强现实弱预期的局面延续，关键变量就在于俄乌和谈进展。投资者暂时以 震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 原油趋弱，油化工成本下移，其中PP和PE双双创出多年低点。聚烯烃 2025年产能增速均超10%，且检修力度不足，聚烯烃产量持续位于五年同 期最高，刚刚过去的10月两个品种月度产量仍创出了历史纪录新高。PP和 PE超过50%的生产都来自炼厂端，炼油和芳烃的利润尚可，炼厂停车检修 聚烯烃的概率就低。当前PE虽然价格连连下跌，但进口窗口多处于开启及 待开启状态，凸显了PE全球格局的弱势。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：原料供应扰动叠 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are range - bound, and geopolitical risks remain a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil due to US shale oil cost support, OPEC+ actively adjusting production growth rates to ease crude oil inventory accumulation pressure, and the end of the US government shutdown leading to a low risk of macro - economic recession. [1][4][74] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long near $55 for WTI crude oil and the opportunity to go long on option volatility brought by geopolitical situation changes. [4][74] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The oil price was range - bound this week with increased amplitude. It dropped significantly due to the bearish OPEC report during the week but then recovered some losses. As of November 13, WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $58.60 per barrel, Brent at $63.11 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures active contract at 449.5 yuan per barrel. [9] - The monthly spread continued to decline with signs of gradual stabilization. [10] - The CFTC持仓 report was postponed. As of the week ending November 4, Brent fund net long positions were 152,761 lots, a decrease of 21,126 lots from the previous period, while diesel net long positions increased by 6,957 lots. [14] 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ production growth slowed down in October. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's production growth rate declined, and some countries like Iran and Kazakhstan had production declines. OPEC+ decided to moderately increase production by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2 and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. [20] - US crude oil daily production increased slightly. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil daily production was 1,386,200 barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous period. The OPEC report revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day. [28] 3. Crude Oil Demand - In the US, gasoline and diesel demand rebounded, while jet fuel demand declined from its high due to the previous US government shutdown. As of the week ending November 7, gasoline demand was 9,028,000 barrels per day, an increase of 154,000 barrels per day from the previous period; diesel demand was 4,018,000 barrels per day, an increase of 308,000 barrels per day from the previous period; jet fuel demand was 1,636,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 45,000 barrels per day from the previous period. Diesel crack spread declined after rising, while gasoline crack spread was at a five - year high. US refinery estimated profit slightly declined, still at a moderately high level, and refinery utilization rate increased. [32][41][46] - In China, crude oil processing volume continued to grow. From June to October, China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons, an increase of 743,000 tons from the previous month and 3.892 million tons from the same period last year. [51] 4. Crude Oil Inventory - In the US, crude oil inventory increased significantly but remained at a low level in the past five years. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels from the previous period; SPR inventory was 410.393 million barrels, an increase of 798,000 barrels from the previous period. Gasoline and diesel continued to draw down inventory, while jet fuel inventory increased slightly. [57][63] - For OECD, the surplus pressure gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply was 108.18 million barrels per day, demand was 103.75 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 4.43 million barrels per day. OECD continued to accumulate inventory, with the inventory at the end of October at 2.903 billion barrels, an increase of 250 million barrels from the previous period. [70] 5. Summary and Outlook - The short - term oil price is range - bound, and geopolitical risks are a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity near $55 for WTI crude oil and the long - position opportunity for option volatility due to geopolitical changes. [74]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures, released on October 23, 2025, by Baocheng Futures [4][6][8] - The overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish, with prices expected to oscillate and trend higher [5] Group 2: Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, stabilizing, and rebounding, with a slight increase. The price closed up 0.86% at 15,245 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 55 yuan/ton. Stronger demand driven by better - than - expected vehicle production and sales in the domestic market is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, oscillating, and rebounding slightly. The price closed up 1.19% at 2,292 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 37 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - driven logic is prominent, supporting the rebound of domestic methanol futures prices, and the contract 2601 may maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6] - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing open interest, rising steadily, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 4.05% at 459.7 yuan/barrel. After the correction of the previously weak macro - factors and the prominent geopolitical risks in South America, crude oil futures have regained premium support [7] Group 3: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons (4.07%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70% to 69,600 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51% to 367,900 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9] - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, remaining in the high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [10] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10] Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 118,600 tons [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 324,600 tons. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 109,700 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 83. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [14] - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [14] - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) compared with the August average. As of October 14, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (49.01%) compared with the September average [15] Group 4: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +95 yuan/ton | - 845 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,310 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | 2,292 yuan/ton | +31 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.0 yuan/barrel | +8.0 yuan/barrel | 459.7 yuan/barrel | +12.0 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.0 yuan/barrel | [16] Group 5: Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21][25][27][31] - **Methanol**: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][36][39][41][43][46] - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [50][52][54][56][58][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market experienced a significant downturn, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices hitting their lowest levels since spring, primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade friction has led to a sharp market reaction, breaking the previous "habitual immunity" to such risks, resulting in a rapid reassessment of demand expectations [2] - High tariffs are expected to increase costs in multinational manufacturing chains, prompting a recalibration of global economic growth assumptions and leading to reduced forward demand parameters from refiners and traders [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Reduction - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has significantly lowered geopolitical risk premiums that previously supported oil prices, leading traders to reduce long positions [4] - The cessation of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure has further alleviated concerns regarding the security of Russian oil supplies [4] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, maintaining a trend of rising output, with OPEC's crude oil production reaching 27.948 million barrels per day in August, an increase of over 1.23 million barrels per day since April [5] - The U.S. crude oil production remains at a near five-year high, contributing to a global supply surplus, with September's global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.88 million barrels per day [6] - Rising inventories are evident, with U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating a continued trend of oversupply in the fourth quarter [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oversold rebound, and a slight increase on Thursday. The price is expected to temporarily stabilize and fluctuate due to the potential impact of Typhoon "Maidumi" on natural rubber planting areas during the National Day holiday [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and a significant decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weak downward movement, and a slight decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [9]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July 2025 and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.8727 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 59,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 32,400 tons [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. As of September 30, 2025, the futures disk profit of methanol to olefin was - 132 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2681 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 61,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 333,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 474,900 tons. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 429,000 barrels/day [14]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.7 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,480 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts and a slight increase of 162 contracts from the August average, an increase of 0.08% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 15,415 yuan/ton | +385 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 38 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.1 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | 471.0 yuan/barrel | - 8.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.9 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][37][41] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The global natural decline rates of oil and gas fields show significant differentiation, leading to a more concentrated future supply of oil and gas [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the average annual decline rate for conventional oil is 5.6%, while for natural gas it is 6.8%. Without new investments, oil production is expected to decline by 8% annually over the next decade, and natural gas by 9% [5][12]. - The report highlights that nearly 90% of upstream investments are currently aimed at offsetting declines rather than meeting growth, indicating a need for substantial new investments to maintain current production levels [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.53 per barrel, down 7.99% week-on-week, while WTI futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 7.36% [24]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 549, although this is a decrease of 38 compared to the previous year [37]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, but a medium to high price range due to OPEC cuts and shale oil cost support [4]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore rose to $21.72 per barrel, an increase of $8.14 from the previous week [59]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery anticipated as economic conditions stabilize [4]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a recovery expectation for the polyester sector, with potential upward movement in profit margins as supply-demand dynamics improve [17]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development companies, particularly offshore service companies, which are expected to see performance improvements [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]