1月3日，美国军方逮捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，这标志着美方行动由经济制裁转向直接推动政 权更迭，紧张局势达到前所未有的程度。元旦假期后的首个交易日，WTI与Brent原油期货价格并未因 地缘政治风险升级而上涨，反而下跌近1%，内盘SC主力合约跌幅更是接近3.4%。与之形成对比的是， 沥青期货呈现大幅跳空高开、高位震荡走势，主力合约一度涨超3200元/吨，涨幅最高达6.3%，随后虽 有所回落，收盘仍保持近4%的涨幅。 今日国内期货BU与SC走出"此起彼伏"的背离行情。我们此前提示，美国与委内瑞拉冲突对原油的地缘 溢价提振有限，难以扭转油价中枢下行趋势。从历史上看，地缘冲突对油价的持续影响力取决于是否造 成大规模、长期的实质性供应中断。根据EIA数据，2025年委内瑞拉石油产量约在97–104万桶/日之间， 仅占全球供应的0.94%–0.96%，即便供应中断也难以推动油价长期上扬。加之当前原油市场处于供应过 剩的累库阶段，从EIA、IEA、OPEC三大机构对平衡表的预估来看，2026年第一季度全球原油市场仍面 临较大累库压力。因此，美委局势难以在基本面上为油价提供持续支撑。反而值得注意的是，美国此次 行动目 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 套利追踪： 1） 价差：12月19日，SC 夜盘1-3月差-0.8元/桶，换算成-0.11美元/桶；Brent 1-3月差为0.67美元/桶；WTI 1-3 月差为0.27美元/桶。SC夜盘-Brent主力合约为1.22美元/桶；SC夜盘-WTI主力合约为4.91美元/桶。 2）套利：①估值：12月19日凌晨2：30，Brent 2602盘面价为59.99美元/桶，SC 2603盘面价为431.9元/桶，测 算SC 2603盘面理论价为451.0元/桶，当天盘面估值偏离程度-4.23%。从7天移动平均估值值中，以【-5%，0】 为正常区间来看，估值区于常态下沿。②利润：测算SC2603盘面到岸利润-18.76元/桶，折合-2.67美元/桶。③ 价差：SC2603-Brent2602盘面差为1.03美元/桶，理论差3.69美元/桶，盘面价差低于理论价差。（注：上周 Brent首行为2602；SC首行为2602；其中M代表时下12月） 3）总结： 月差来看，在美国推进俄乌和平的努力窗口下，本周周三SC原油率先刷新年内低点之后，布 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏空氛围主导 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，冲高回落， 震荡偏弱的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 14990 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.76%至 14985 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 50 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 原油：本周二国内原油期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of polyester filament in the off-season [3]. Core Insights - The demand for polyester filament has remained strong, with downstream textile operating rates reaching a high of 69.45% in early November and maintaining around 90% for polyester filament production [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament and downstream fabrics are relatively low, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [7][8]. - Profitability for polyester filament has improved significantly since September, with expectations for further profit increases in Q4 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Sector - Polyester filament has entered a demand peak since September, with downstream textile operating rates consistently high, peaking at 69.45% [4][5]. - As of December 5, the operating rate for polyester filament was 90.15%, indicating strong production levels [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at 16.3/21.2/24.3 days, remaining low compared to the annual average [7][8]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $63.75 per barrel, reflecting a 0.87% rise from the previous week [18]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 549, indicating a slight uptick in drilling activity [29]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore decreased to $19.06 per barrel, down by $0.57 from the previous week [54]. - Domestic refining margins are expected to improve as oil prices stabilize [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [12]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [12]. - For upstream exploration and production, companies like CNOOC and offshore oil service firms are highlighted for their potential performance improvements [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are range - bound, and geopolitical risks remain a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil due to US shale oil cost support, OPEC+ actively adjusting production growth rates to ease crude oil inventory accumulation pressure, and the end of the US government shutdown leading to a low risk of macro - economic recession. [1][4][74] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long near $55 for WTI crude oil and the opportunity to go long on option volatility brought by geopolitical situation changes. [4][74] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The oil price was range - bound this week with increased amplitude. It dropped significantly due to the bearish OPEC report during the week but then recovered some losses. As of November 13, WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $58.60 per barrel, Brent at $63.11 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures active contract at 449.5 yuan per barrel. [9] - The monthly spread continued to decline with signs of gradual stabilization. [10] - The CFTC持仓 report was postponed. As of the week ending November 4, Brent fund net long positions were 152,761 lots, a decrease of 21,126 lots from the previous period, while diesel net long positions increased by 6,957 lots. [14] 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ production growth slowed down in October. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's production growth rate declined, and some countries like Iran and Kazakhstan had production declines. OPEC+ decided to moderately increase production by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2 and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. [20] - US crude oil daily production increased slightly. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil daily production was 1,386,200 barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous period. The OPEC report revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day. [28] 3. Crude Oil Demand - In the US, gasoline and diesel demand rebounded, while jet fuel demand declined from its high due to the previous US government shutdown. As of the week ending November 7, gasoline demand was 9,028,000 barrels per day, an increase of 154,000 barrels per day from the previous period; diesel demand was 4,018,000 barrels per day, an increase of 308,000 barrels per day from the previous period; jet fuel demand was 1,636,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 45,000 barrels per day from the previous period. Diesel crack spread declined after rising, while gasoline crack spread was at a five - year high. US refinery estimated profit slightly declined, still at a moderately high level, and refinery utilization rate increased. [32][41][46] - In China, crude oil processing volume continued to grow. From June to October, China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons, an increase of 743,000 tons from the previous month and 3.892 million tons from the same period last year. [51] 4. Crude Oil Inventory - In the US, crude oil inventory increased significantly but remained at a low level in the past five years. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels from the previous period; SPR inventory was 410.393 million barrels, an increase of 798,000 barrels from the previous period. Gasoline and diesel continued to draw down inventory, while jet fuel inventory increased slightly. [57][63] - For OECD, the surplus pressure gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply was 108.18 million barrels per day, demand was 103.75 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 4.43 million barrels per day. OECD continued to accumulate inventory, with the inventory at the end of October at 2.903 billion barrels, an increase of 250 million barrels from the previous period. [70] 5. Summary and Outlook - The short - term oil price is range - bound, and geopolitical risks are a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity near $55 for WTI crude oil and the long - position opportunity for option volatility due to geopolitical changes. [74]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures, released on October 23, 2025, by Baocheng Futures [4][6][8] - The overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish, with prices expected to oscillate and trend higher [5] Group 2: Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, stabilizing, and rebounding, with a slight increase. The price closed up 0.86% at 15,245 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 55 yuan/ton. Stronger demand driven by better - than - expected vehicle production and sales in the domestic market is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, oscillating, and rebounding slightly. The price closed up 1.19% at 2,292 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 37 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - driven logic is prominent, supporting the rebound of domestic methanol futures prices, and the contract 2601 may maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6] - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing open interest, rising steadily, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 4.05% at 459.7 yuan/barrel. After the correction of the previously weak macro - factors and the prominent geopolitical risks in South America, crude oil futures have regained premium support [7] Group 3: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons (4.07%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70% to 69,600 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51% to 367,900 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9] - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, remaining in the high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [10] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10] Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 118,600 tons [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 324,600 tons. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 109,700 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 83. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [14] - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [14] - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) compared with the August average. As of October 14, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (49.01%) compared with the September average [15] Group 4: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +95 yuan/ton | - 845 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,310 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | 2,292 yuan/ton | +31 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.0 yuan/barrel | +8.0 yuan/barrel | 459.7 yuan/barrel | +12.0 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.0 yuan/barrel | [16] Group 5: Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21][25][27][31] - **Methanol**: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][36][39][41][43][46] - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [50][52][54][56][58][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].