Brent原油期货

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橡胶甲醇原油:强弱分化明显,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oversold rebound, and a slight increase on Thursday. The price is expected to temporarily stabilize and fluctuate due to the potential impact of Typhoon "Maidumi" on natural rubber planting areas during the National Day holiday [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and a significant decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weak downward movement, and a slight decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [9]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July 2025 and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.8727 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 59,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 32,400 tons [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. As of September 30, 2025, the futures disk profit of methanol to olefin was - 132 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2681 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 61,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 333,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 474,900 tons. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 429,000 barrels/day [14]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.7 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,480 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts and a slight increase of 162 contracts from the August average, an increase of 0.08% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 15,415 yuan/ton | +385 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 38 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.1 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | 471.0 yuan/barrel | - 8.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.9 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][37][41] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47]
石油化工行业周报:自然递减率呈现一定分化,油气供应未来或将更加集中-20251008
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-08 13:12
行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 10 月 08 日 自然递减率呈现一定分化,油气供 应未来或将更加集中 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/9/29—2025/10/5) 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 1. 本周观点及推荐 1.1 本周思考:自然递减率呈现一定分化,油气供应未来 或将更加集中 国际能源署(IEA)分析显示,全球常规油气田产量正以显著的速度自然递减。IEA 对全球约 15000 个油气田 ...
2025年十一假期期货市场品种解读:2025年十一假期外盘走势一览
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-10-08 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]
石油化工行业周报:《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案》发布,行业景气修复可期-20250928
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-28 13:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a recovery in industry prosperity [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" aims for an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and enhancing technological innovation [4][5]. - The report highlights five key initiatives to achieve these goals, including strengthening technological innovation, expanding effective investment, and enhancing market demand [6][10]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a trend of widening supply and demand, with expectations of oil prices maintaining a medium to high level despite potential downward adjustments [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a recovery in oil prices, although the current product price differentials remain low [4][45]. - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.13 per barrel, a 5.17% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [4][18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 415 million barrels, down 610,000 barrels from the previous week, and are 4% lower than the five-year average [20][22]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs increased to 549, up 7 rigs week-on-week, but down 38 rigs year-on-year [28]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products fell to $13.54 per barrel, down $4.51 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product price differentials have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual improvement as the economy recovers [4][45]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have stabilized, with the average price in East China at 4528.6 CNY per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [14][15]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and development sector, which are expected to maintain high profitability due to sustained capital expenditures [14].
偏多情绪回暖,能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 9 月 24 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓,震荡企稳, 略微收涨的走势,盘中期价重心略微上移至 15620 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.32%至 15620 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度扩张至 75 元/吨。随着美联储降息预期落地兑现,阶段性利好出尽。胶市转入偏 弱供需结构主导的行情,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡 偏弱的走势。 甲醇:本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓,震荡偏强, 略微收涨的走势,期价最高上涨至 2367 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2337 元/吨,收盘时略微收涨 0.47%至 2351 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 28 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书,期货 投资咨询资格证书,本人承诺 以勤 ...
国庆节前加油守住“7元线”,机构预计下轮调价还要继续降
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 07:30
Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted this time, maintaining a low price level across most regions [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced nineteen rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "six increases, seven decreases, and six suspensions," with overall price declines of 405 yuan/ton for gasoline and 390 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Current gasoline and diesel prices are slightly lower by about 0.1 yuan per liter compared to the same period in 2024, but have seen a larger decline compared to the end of 2023 [1] Group 2 - The international oil market is facing oversupply risks due to OPEC+'s strong production increase amid concerns over macroeconomic conditions and fossil fuel demand [2] - Brent crude oil futures prices have decreased by 4.04% to $73.93 per barrel from early 2024 to September 20, and by 11.33% to $65.6 per barrel since the beginning of this year [2] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical factors, demand resilience, and increased supply, which is influencing the recent downward trend in oil prices [2] Group 3 - The next price adjustment window will open on October 13, with expectations of a downward trend in refined oil prices based on current international oil price levels [3] - OPEC+ is set to initiate a new round of production increases starting in October, contributing to concerns over supply surplus amid a lack of significant escalation in geopolitical tensions [3] - Overall, the probability of a price decrease in the next round of refined oil adjustments is considered high due to the prevailing market conditions [3]
利多预期兑现能化震荡偏弱:橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a significant decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, downward volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 81.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%, and a slight increase of 2.21% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1,919,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 tons, and a significant increase of 126,700 tons compared with 1,792,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 79.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.81%, with no week - on - week change. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [11]. - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 138 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1,267,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 376,200 tons, and a significant increase of 365,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China reached 808,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,200 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 459,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 342,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,900 tons, and a significant decrease of 88,400 tons compared with 431,000 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,219 contracts or 32.95% compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of September 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a slight increase of 3,457 contracts or 1.71% compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly week - on - week [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,570 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | + 210 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,346 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.3 yuan/barrel | + 0.5 yuan/barrel | 491.8 yuan/barrel | - 7.5 yuan/barrel | - 25.5 yuan/barrel | + 8.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][21] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][36] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏空情绪减弱,能化收敛跌幅
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 11:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved up to 15,945 yuan/ton, and it slightly rose 0.28% to 15,945 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount narrowed to 985 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market, the improvement of macro - expectations competes with the negative industrial factors. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,381 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,356 yuan/ton, and it slightly fell 0.42% to 2,373 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 148 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 483.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.4 yuan/barrel, and it slightly fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/barrel at the close. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil returns to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving the week - on - week recovery of capacity utilization, and enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight increase of 4.82% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. As of August 22, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the average of 183,170 contracts in July. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 176,893 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the average of 220,076 contracts in July. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13] 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change Compared with the Previous Day | Rise/Fall Compared with the Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | 15,945 yuan/ton | - 1,045 yuan/ton | + 185 yuan/ton | - 185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,265 yuan/ton | 2,373 yuan/ton | - 108 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.6 yuan/barrel | 481.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.1 yuan/barrel | + 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 2.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围减弱,能化震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 12:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price center slightly moved up to the 15,885 yuan/ton level during the session, and closed slightly up 0.28% to 15,885 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 995 yuan/ton. With the game between the improvement of macro - expectations and the negative factors of the industry, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,430 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,392 yuan/ton, and closed down 1.16% to 2,395 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 500.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 494.0 yuan/barrel, and closed slightly up 0.53% to 496.1 yuan/barrel. With the digestion of previous negative factors and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales expanded by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels/day [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,885 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 935 yuan/ton | +120 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,395 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | 496.1 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire start - up rate trend, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, semi - steel tire start - up rate trend, and rubber 9 - 1 month spread [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, methanol inland social inventory, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏空因素压制,能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 11:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend due to strong demand factors [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to continue in a weaker pattern under the influence of a sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend as the demand growth rate has declined and the OPEC+ is increasing production, which may lead to a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The production and sales growth rates increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant increase of 79,000 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant increase of 102,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 295,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant decrease of 3.98 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.051 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,820 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 1,070 yuan/ton | + 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan/ton | + 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | - 26.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net - position changes, etc.) [14][26][39]