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石化行业周报:原油的地缘计价仍是焦点-20250623
China Post Securities· 2025-06-23 08:49
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, including developments in Iran, U.S. military actions, and negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz [2] - This week, the petrochemical index performed relatively well, closing at 2248.68 points, with a decrease of 1.03% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector saw the best performance with a rise of 4.53% [3][2] - Crude oil prices have increased this week, with a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and an increase in refined oil inventories [5][10] - Polyester prices, particularly for polyester filament yarn, have risen, with inventory days decreasing and operating rates declining in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [12][18] - Polyolefin prices remained stable, with a decrease in inventory levels during the week [20][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have risen, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing and refined oil inventories increasing [5][10] - As of June 20, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $76.52 per barrel and €40.94 per MWh, respectively, marking increases of 4.1% and 9.0% compared to the previous week [8] Polyester - Polyester filament yarn prices have increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 7150, 8350, and 7430 yuan per ton, respectively, showing price differentials that have expanded [14][12] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, with operating rates at 90.6% and 60.7% for filament yarn and downstream weaving machines, respectively [18][12] Polyolefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 7700 and 8076 yuan per ton, with slight changes of 0% and -0.20% respectively [24] - Polyolefin inventory stood at 740,000 tons, down by 70,000 tons from the previous week [24]