Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a low - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short positions in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances provide premium support, and the strong demand for gasoline in the US and high refinery operating rates support the demand at the end of the peak season. However, SC crude oil is weaker than the external market due to RMB pricing and domestic warehouse receipt pressure. The closure of Mexican refineries may lead to a regional surplus of refined oil supply and indirectly suppress crude oil procurement. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy suppresses risk appetite. If geopolitical conflicts escalate or the US EIA inventory is depleted more than expected, it may drive the oil price to rebound periodically [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 27, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped significantly by 3.31% to 479.7 yuan/barrel, while the prices of WTI and Brent contracts rose slightly by 0.87% and 0.76% respectively, closing at 63.86 US dollars/barrel and 67.2 US dollars/barrel. The spread between SC and Brent and WTI weakened significantly. The spread between Brent and WTI narrowed slightly to 3.34 US dollars/barrel. The spread of the near - month contract of SC crude oil (SC continuous - continuous 3) weakened significantly from - 4.3 yuan/barrel to - 10.3 yuan/barrel [2] - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: On the supply side, Russian crude oil export disturbances intensified, and the Mexican refinery was forced to close. However, Iraq's export volume in July reached 104.7 million barrels, indicating that OPEC+ member states still have the willingness to increase production. On the demand side, the demand for gasoline and distillates in the US strengthened, but the closure of the Mexican refinery may indirectly suppress regional demand. The operating rate of Japanese refineries rebounded to 87.5%, supporting Asian crude oil procurement. On the inventory side, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels (- 0.57%), and the Cushing inventory decreased by 840,000 barrels (- 3.57%). The Japanese commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline and kerosene inventories increased. The domestic fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased significantly [3] - **Price Trend Judgment**: The crude oil market shows a low - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short positions in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances provide premium support, and the strong demand for gasoline in the US and high refinery operating rates support the demand at the end of the peak season. SC crude oil is weaker than the external market due to RMB pricing and domestic warehouse receipt pressure. The closure of Mexican refineries may lead to a regional surplus of refined oil supply and indirectly suppress crude oil procurement. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy suppresses risk appetite. If geopolitical conflicts escalate or the US EIA inventory is depleted more than expected, it may drive the oil price to rebound periodically [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 27, the price of the SC crude oil futures main contract dropped by 3.31%, while the prices of WTI and Brent futures contracts rose by 0.87% and 0.76% respectively. Among the spot prices, the prices of most crude oils decreased. The spreads between SC and Brent, SC and WTI, and SC continuous - continuous 3 all weakened significantly. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.57%, the Cushing inventory decreased by 3.57%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.19%. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 2.07%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.91% [6] - **Fuel Oil**: On August 27, the prices of most fuel oil futures and spot prices decreased. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.53%, and the US distillate inventories showed different degrees of change [7] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: The Mexican Dos Bocas refinery was forced to close due to heavy rain and power outages and planned to restart on Thursday. Russia extended the full gasoline export ban until September. The oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia may resume on August 28. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil export pipelines and US tariff policies affected Russian crude oil exports, and the weekly crude oil shipments from Russian ports dropped to a four - week low. An oil pipeline in Russia exploded. Iraq's oil export volume in July reached 104.7 million barrels [8][9] - **Demand**: The EIA distillate fuel production implied demand data in the US for the week ending August 22 was 5.6131 million barrels/day, and the EIA motor gasoline total production implied demand data was 9.9537 million barrels/day, both showing an increase compared with the previous values [10] - **Inventory**: The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts increased by 24,000 tons. The Japanese commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline and kerosene inventories increased. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 974,000 barrels [11] - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 closing, the Shanghai gold main contract rose by 0.33%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 0.02%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.01%. Indian government sources said that India hopes that the US will re - examine the decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on Russian oil purchases. The crude oil - related futures fell in the morning session [13] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread statistics between SC and WTI, the US crude oil weekly production, the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada and global regions, the US refinery weekly operating rate, the US refinery crude oil processing volume, the US weekly crude oil net imports, the Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, the Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rate, China's refined oil monthly production, the US commercial crude oil inventory, the US Cushing crude oil inventory, the US strategic crude oil inventory, the fuel oil futures price trend, the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, the international port IFO380 spot price, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread, the cross - regional high - low sulfur spread, and the fuel oil inventory [15][27][48]

展望后市，高健认为，若没有地缘风险的干扰，短期原油价格上方空间有限，制约上涨的压力甚至会逐 步增大。此外，还需关注金融市场短线资金的避险行为对原油市场情绪造成的冲击。 从月差结构来看，截至当地时间7月15日，布伦特原油期货1月合约与3月合约的价差从2.07美元/桶降至 1.57美元/桶。杨安表示，原油市场月差结构进一步走弱，反映出市场对原油供应紧张的担忧有所缓 解，也表明此前强势的原油市场开始出现松动。不过，目前市场仍处于多空博弈阶段，多头并未放弃前 期低位的关键支撑，只是市场势头已从多头占优转变为空头逐步形成压制局面，后续需关注关键点位的 争夺情况。 从基本面来看，山东齐盛期货原油研究员高健表示，当前原油市场正处于季节性需求峰值阶段，但未来 需求增量空间有限，到9月份甚至可能面临需求季节性回落的压力。此外，即便在需求旺盛的阶段，全 球石油库存也未出现明显的去库态势，商业库存甚至有所累积，这说明当前原油市场并未因消费旺季而 出现明显的供应紧缺。另外，"欧佩克+"8国的原油船货供应正逐步增加，增产工作正在逐步落实。即 便"欧佩克+"在10月之后暂停增产一段时间，供应端的长尾效应仍会推动原油基本面持续走弱。 近期 ...