交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.9952%，环比增加5.752个百分点，全国样本企业出货 24.48万吨，环比增加7.23%,样本企业产量为58.4万吨，环比增加19.67%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为72.1万吨，环比减少0.82%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比增加0.19个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为11.2624 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 34.9952%, a month - on - month increase of 5.752 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises increased by 19.67% month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 0.82% month - on - month. Refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2624%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 501.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 391.7057 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.13%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2507 fluctuating in the range of 3475 - 3529 [10]. - Bullish factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [14]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [15]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [16]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The increase in refinery production has led to an increase in supply pressure. The planned production in May 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment volume increased this week, while the maintenance volume decreased [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average, with different downstream开工率s showing mixed trends [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit loss decreased, and the profit difference with delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the price [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2507 in the 3475 - 3529 range [10]. - Bullish and bearish factors: Bullish due to crude oil cost support; bearish due to weak demand and economic recession expectations [14][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On May 19, the spot price in Shandong was 3615 yuan/ton, and the 07 - contract basis was 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [12]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.381 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%; factory inventory was 0.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.93%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 110,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month. Social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is stable [12]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 07 - contract futures price closed above MA20, which is bullish [12]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [12]. 3.3 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract futures price increased by 0.09%, and the 06 - contract decreased by 0.23% [19]. - Inventory data: Social inventory decreased by 1.00%, factory inventory increased by 3.93%, and port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Production and shipment data: The sample enterprise output increased by 19.67%, and the shipment volume increased by 7.23% [19]. - Profit data: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 12.05%, and the weekly delayed coking profit decreased by 44.14% [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: Provided the historical trends of asphalt base differences in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Spread analysis**: - Main - contract spread: Showed the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Presented the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Displayed the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: Showed the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Showed the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - Asphalt profit: Presented the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread: Showed the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - Shipment volume: Displayed the historical weekly shipment volume trends from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Presented the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - Production: Showed the historical weekly and monthly production trends from 2019 to 2025 [51][52]. - Marrucán crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil production: Displayed the historical trends of Marrucán crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [55][57]. - Local refinery asphalt production: Presented the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - Operating rate: Showed the historical weekly operating rate trends from 2023 to 2025 [61][62]. - Maintenance loss estimate: Presented the historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2025 [64][65]. - **Inventory analysis**: - Exchange warehouse receipts: Displayed the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67][68][69]. - Social and factory inventory: Showed the historical trends of social and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [72][73]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: Presented the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [75][76]. - **Import - export analysis**: - Asphalt import and export trends: Showed the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import spread: Presented the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [81][82][83]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - Petroleum coke production: Showed the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: Presented the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and infrastructure investment: Showed the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Downstream mechanical demand: Presented the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97]. - Downstream operating conditions: Showed the historical trends of different types of asphalt operating rates and downstream product operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provided the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand data [110][111]