交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分 点，全国样本企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少 3.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供 应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为15.8681%，环比减 少0.33个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为29%，环比增加2.00个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为27.5%，环比减少1.50个百分点，低于历史平均 1、基本面: 偏多。 沥青期货早报 2025年8月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a stable supply and recovering demand, with price outlook supported by inventory trends and potential consumption recovery in the coming months [1] Supply Side - Recent asphalt production levels in China have slightly decreased but remain stable compared to previous periods, with a total production of 549,000 tons by mid-June, down from the peak in mid-May but still within a comfortable supply range [1] - Independent refineries produced 290,000 tons in mid-June, which, although lower than the May peak, is still relatively high compared to previous years, confirming a trend of increased production [1] Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, with sales volume reaching 434,000 tons in mid-June, showing a year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rate for downstream road asphalt remains above 25%, having previously risen to 31%, with expectations for further support in consumption due to seasonal temperature increases and construction activity resuming in northern regions [1] Inventory - Recent trends indicate a shift in domestic asphalt inventory, with factory inventory at 494,000 tons as of June 13, continuing a downward trend since mid-March [1] - Social inventory remains stable around 520,000 tons, with no significant accumulation expected, suggesting a potential inventory reduction in the medium term that could support asphalt prices [1] Profitability - Asphalt production profits in Shandong have seen some recovery in late April to May, maintaining stability in June, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a loose supply environment [1] - The transition between the second and third quarters may see a release in consumption that could boost production margins [1] Basis and Cost - The basis for asphalt, represented by Shandong spot prices, continues to show an upward trend, with short-term corrections not altering the overall upward trajectory [1] - Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors, have increased market volatility, with concerns about supply contraction and potential impacts from the Israel-Palestine conflict affecting oil prices [1] Outlook - Asphalt prices are currently stable, with less volatility than crude oil, primarily influenced by oil price movements [1] - The second half of the second quarter will be critical for observing demand recovery, with long-term price opportunities anticipated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.9952%，环比增加5.752个百分点，全国样本企业出货 24.48万吨，环比增加7.23%,样本企业产量为58.4万吨，环比增加19.67%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为72.1万吨，环比减少0.82%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比增加0.19个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为11.2624 ...