本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 进入淡季，供需双减 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 重交沥青：各地区主流市场价 重交沥青：山东：主流市场价 沥青：进入淡季，供需双减 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 本周沥青供给呈增长态势，国内生产与进口协同发力。国内方面，主力炼厂复产、提产稳步推进，产能利用率有所提升，检修损失小幅下降，有效支撑 | | 供给 | 利多 | | | 产量增加。分区域来看，多个重点产区炼厂稳定生产，进一步充实市场货源。进口端货源到港量增多，补充了国内供应缺口。整体供应格局宽松，能较 | | | | | | 好匹配当下市场需求。下期受部分炼厂转产及计划检修影响，供应或出现小幅收缩。 | | | | | | 本周沥青需求呈南北分化格局 ...

研究所 需求淡季主导 1 行情回顾 2 沥青基本面 3 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 价格弱势承压 2025/11/16 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1.1 沥青期货主力合约走势 研究所 本周（11月10至14日白天收盘）沥青期货主力合约BU2601震荡运行，区间跌幅为0.36%，区间振 幅为2.57%。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2 山东部分炼厂70#A出厂价 研究所 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.3 山东重交沥青基差 研究所 山东重交沥青基差 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 2.2 BU主力合约收盘价与SC*6.6主力价差 研究所 t 分 2 沥青基本面 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1 沥青生产综合利润 研究所 为454.05元/吨。 当前山东地炼沥青生 产理论利润-373. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The overall demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure is still high, but refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [10]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and the cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply data**: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the sample enterprise production decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased [8]. - **Demand data**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average level, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost data**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the weekly delayed coking profit increased. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and the cost support weakened [9]. - **Market data**: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The main position is net long, but the long position decreased. The spot price in Shandong on August 8 was 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 282 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10][11]. - **Inventory data**: The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory was 0.679 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a stable supply and recovering demand, with price outlook supported by inventory trends and potential consumption recovery in the coming months [1] Supply Side - Recent asphalt production levels in China have slightly decreased but remain stable compared to previous periods, with a total production of 549,000 tons by mid-June, down from the peak in mid-May but still within a comfortable supply range [1] - Independent refineries produced 290,000 tons in mid-June, which, although lower than the May peak, is still relatively high compared to previous years, confirming a trend of increased production [1] Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, with sales volume reaching 434,000 tons in mid-June, showing a year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rate for downstream road asphalt remains above 25%, having previously risen to 31%, with expectations for further support in consumption due to seasonal temperature increases and construction activity resuming in northern regions [1] Inventory - Recent trends indicate a shift in domestic asphalt inventory, with factory inventory at 494,000 tons as of June 13, continuing a downward trend since mid-March [1] - Social inventory remains stable around 520,000 tons, with no significant accumulation expected, suggesting a potential inventory reduction in the medium term that could support asphalt prices [1] Profitability - Asphalt production profits in Shandong have seen some recovery in late April to May, maintaining stability in June, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a loose supply environment [1] - The transition between the second and third quarters may see a release in consumption that could boost production margins [1] Basis and Cost - The basis for asphalt, represented by Shandong spot prices, continues to show an upward trend, with short-term corrections not altering the overall upward trajectory [1] - Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors, have increased market volatility, with concerns about supply contraction and potential impacts from the Israel-Palestine conflict affecting oil prices [1] Outlook - Asphalt prices are currently stable, with less volatility than crude oil, primarily influenced by oil price movements [1] - The second half of the second quarter will be critical for observing demand recovery, with long-term price opportunities anticipated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have increased production recently. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish due to the off - season. The inventory is continuously being depleted, and the cost support from crude oil is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating between 3514 - 3568 [7][9]. - The main logical factors are that the supply pressure is high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side. The bullish factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost, which provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession [13][14][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.9952%, a month - on - month increase of 5.752 percentage points. The shipment volume of sample enterprises is 244,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.23%. The output of sample enterprises is 584,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 721,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 34.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 11.2624%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 27%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 501.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 391.7057 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.13%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short term [8]. - **Others**: On May 20th, the spot price in Shandong is 3625 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract is 115 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1,381,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%; the in - plant inventory is 872,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including various contract prices, price changes, basis, inventory, production, and other indicators [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis It shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production**: Shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [51][52]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Displays the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - **开工率**: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [64][65]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68][69]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Displays the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [72][73]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: Shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [75][76]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **General Downstream Demand**: Shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: Displays the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: Shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt construction rate, road - modified asphalt construction rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [105][106][108]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from May 2025 to May 2024, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [110][111].