1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of asphalt is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - side trading and "none" for arbitrage [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, asphalt supply showed an increasing trend with both domestic production and imports contributing. Next period, supply may contract slightly due to some refineries' production conversion and planned maintenance. Demand presented a north - south differentiation pattern with overall rigid demand support but uneven intensity. New snow and rain may suppress future demand. Inventory showed a pattern of "factory inventory destocking and social inventory accumulation", and the overall pressure is expected to rise slightly. Cost is mainly driven by the raw material end, and the support is expected to continue but may be affected by market supply - demand games [4] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)), asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025, and the basis of asphalt in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][17] 3.3 Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the output of asphalt in regions like North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27] - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][38][41] - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43] 3.4 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51] 3.5 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [61] 3.6 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [64] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself, with abundant refinery supply and insufficient downstream demand support, along with the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Asphalt Futures Main Contract Trend**: From November 10 to 14 (daytime closing), the main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, fluctuated, with an interval decline of 0.36% and an interval amplitude of 2.57% [8]. - **1.2 Shandong Partial Refineries 70A Ex - factory Price**: No specific price data was provided in the text. - **1.3 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Basis**: No specific basis data was provided in the text. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **2.1 Asphalt Production Comprehensive Profit**: The current theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong local refineries is - 373.85 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction), in Hebei local refineries is - 315.02 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit is 454.05 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **2.2 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and SC*6.6 Main Contract**: On November 14, the spread was - 18.16 yuan/ton, up 10.12 yuan/ton compared to November 7 [23]. - **2.3 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and WTI Closing Price**: On November 13, the spread was - 22.10 yuan/ton, down 20.81 yuan/ton compared to November 6 [26]. - **2.4 China Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year [29]. - **2.5 China Asphalt Weekly Output**: The weekly output was 53.2 tons, down 3.38% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year [32]. - **2.6 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year [35]. - **2.7 Shandong Asphalt Weekly Output**: The weekly output in Shandong was 18.3 tons, up 20.39% month - on - month and down 2.14% year - on - year [38]. - **2.8 Asphalt - related Demand Situation**: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year [42]. - **2.9 Asphalt Inventory Situation**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month [44]. - **2.10 Shandong Asphalt Inventory Situation**: The in - plant inventory of 54 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 25.6 tons, up 1.99% month - on - month and down 8.90% year - on - year; the social inventory of 70 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 29.8 tons, down 8.87% month - on - month and up 18.25% year - on - year [47]. - **2.11 and 2.12 Domestic Weather Forecast for the Next Three Days**: There will be snow or sleet in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Tibet, Northwest China, Shaanxi, and Sichuan in the next three days, and moderate to heavy rain in some areas of Yunnan and Guangxi [52]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: As of November 16, the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year; the operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year. The market supply is sufficient and the supply support for asphalt prices is limited [61]. - **Demand**: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year. The demand in the north has entered the off - season, and the demand in the south is relatively stable but with limited actual growth. The demand will continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation [61]. - **Cost**: OPEC and its allies' production increase suppresses oil prices, while the escalation of South American geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The international oil price fluctuates, and the cost guidance is insufficient [62]. - **Technical**: The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, continues to operate weakly and fluctuately. The price is below the key resistance level, and the moving average system shows a short - position arrangement, indicating weak bullish momentum [62]. - **Short - term View**: The asphalt futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market and the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The overall demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure is still high, but refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [10]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and the cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply data**: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the sample enterprise production decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased [8]. - **Demand data**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average level, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost data**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the weekly delayed coking profit increased. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and the cost support weakened [9]. - **Market data**: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The main position is net long, but the long position decreased. The spot price in Shandong on August 8 was 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 282 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10][11]. - **Inventory data**: The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory was 0.679 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a stable supply and recovering demand, with price outlook supported by inventory trends and potential consumption recovery in the coming months [1] Supply Side - Recent asphalt production levels in China have slightly decreased but remain stable compared to previous periods, with a total production of 549,000 tons by mid-June, down from the peak in mid-May but still within a comfortable supply range [1] - Independent refineries produced 290,000 tons in mid-June, which, although lower than the May peak, is still relatively high compared to previous years, confirming a trend of increased production [1] Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, with sales volume reaching 434,000 tons in mid-June, showing a year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rate for downstream road asphalt remains above 25%, having previously risen to 31%, with expectations for further support in consumption due to seasonal temperature increases and construction activity resuming in northern regions [1] Inventory - Recent trends indicate a shift in domestic asphalt inventory, with factory inventory at 494,000 tons as of June 13, continuing a downward trend since mid-March [1] - Social inventory remains stable around 520,000 tons, with no significant accumulation expected, suggesting a potential inventory reduction in the medium term that could support asphalt prices [1] Profitability - Asphalt production profits in Shandong have seen some recovery in late April to May, maintaining stability in June, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a loose supply environment [1] - The transition between the second and third quarters may see a release in consumption that could boost production margins [1] Basis and Cost - The basis for asphalt, represented by Shandong spot prices, continues to show an upward trend, with short-term corrections not altering the overall upward trajectory [1] - Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors, have increased market volatility, with concerns about supply contraction and potential impacts from the Israel-Palestine conflict affecting oil prices [1] Outlook - Asphalt prices are currently stable, with less volatility than crude oil, primarily influenced by oil price movements [1] - The second half of the second quarter will be critical for observing demand recovery, with long-term price opportunities anticipated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have increased production recently. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish due to the off - season. The inventory is continuously being depleted, and the cost support from crude oil is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating between 3514 - 3568 [7][9]. - The main logical factors are that the supply pressure is high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side. The bullish factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost, which provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession [13][14][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.9952%, a month - on - month increase of 5.752 percentage points. The shipment volume of sample enterprises is 244,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.23%. The output of sample enterprises is 584,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 721,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 34.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 11.2624%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 27%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 501.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 391.7057 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.13%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short term [8]. - **Others**: On May 20th, the spot price in Shandong is 3625 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract is 115 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1,381,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%; the in - plant inventory is 872,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including various contract prices, price changes, basis, inventory, production, and other indicators [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis It shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production**: Shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [51][52]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Displays the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - **开工率**: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [64][65]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68][69]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Displays the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [72][73]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: Shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [75][76]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **General Downstream Demand**: Shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: Displays the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: Shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt construction rate, road - modified asphalt construction rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [105][106][108]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from May 2025 to May 2024, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [110][111].