研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | | | 名称 | 2026/02/24 | 2026/02/13 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | 研究员： | | BU2603（主力） | 3334 | 3264 | 70 | 2.14% | | 吴晓蓉 | | BU2604 | 3348 | 3280 | 68 | 2.07% | | 期货从业证号： | | BU2605 | 3364 | 3284 | 80 | 2.44% | | F03108405 | | SC2603 | 493.3 | 460.7 | 32.6 | 7.08% | | 投资咨询从业证号： | | Brent首行 | 71.65 | 67.33 | 4.3 | 6.42% | | Z0021537 | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 14.6 | 14.3 | 0.3 | 1.76% | | ： | 021-65789108 | 主力合约成交/万手 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to have a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side may see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and raw material supply is expected to tighten after the Spring Festival, which may support the spot market. The demand side is seasonally weak, and asphalt is expected to follow the trend of oil prices [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the trading volume and price changes of BU2604 and BU2606 contracts are presented. BU2604 closed at 3343 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%, and the trading volume was 17.51 million lots. BU2606 closed at 3348 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%, and the trading volume was 3.54 million lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in the Northeast and Shandong regions increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The supply and demand in the asphalt spot market are both weak, and prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side may see a decline in the operating load rate, and raw material supply may tighten after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak due to low temperatures and project shutdowns [6]. 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3290 - 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Most projects have stopped, and the rigid demand is low. However, the inventory is limited, and the supply side has no pressure, so the price remains stable [7]. - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3250 - 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although the increase in crude oil prices supports the cost, the weak terminal demand restricts the market, and the price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [7]. 3. Data Overview - Includes various data charts such as asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit in Shandong, spot price in South China, basis in Shandong, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][13][18]

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to have a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply and potential price increases after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and asphalt is expected to mainly follow the movement of oil prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2604, the opening price was 3347 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3373 yuan/ton, the highest was 3374 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3324 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.51%, and the trading volume was 132,000 lots. For BU2606, the opening price was 3365 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3370 yuan/ton, the highest was 3372 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3329 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.48%, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in various domestic regions were generally stable. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the asphalt spot market were both weak, and prices tended to be stable. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and most projects in the south have gradually stopped work [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3180 - 3240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures maintained a range-bound trend, providing no obvious guidance to spot prices. Most transactions remained weak [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3290 - 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most projects have stopped work, and asphalt demand is low. However, the inventory of asphalt in refineries and social warehouses is limited, and there is no pressure on the supply side [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit in Shandong, spot price in South China, basis in Shandong, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][13][18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - **Some Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - **Weekly Data**: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Prices in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - **In - Plant Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the positive factors of asphalt raw materials are gradually digested, the supply and demand return to an equilibrium level, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of oil prices [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2603, the opening price was 3,142 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,124 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.03%, and the trading volume was 1.189 million lots. For BU2604, the opening price was 3,166 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,152 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,138 yuan/ton, the change was 0, and the trading volume was 0.113 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions decreased, while those in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Due to cooling and rainy and snowy weather, the rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline [6] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, Shengxing Petrochemical planned to switch to asphalt production on the 16th, but Qilu Petrochemical switched to residue production on the 15th, and the operating load rate of asphalt plants next week is expected to remain basically the same. On the demand side, cold air will strengthen in the next ten days, with obvious rain and snow in the Huanghuai to the Yangtze River region. Road construction projects in East and Central China may gradually enter the final or suspension stage. Winter storage contracts in the north will continue to arrive, and overall demand is expected to fluctuate little. With the seasonal decline in terminal demand and the lack of new positive factors, the sentiment in the asphalt market may remain cautious, and speculative demand is expected to increase limitedly [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,000 - 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, providing no guidance for the asphalt spot market. The obvious temperature drop in Shandong and surrounding areas in recent days led to a decrease in terminal rigid demand, weakening spot transactions, and some brand traders lowered their quotes, driving down the market price [8] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Brent crude oil futures closed lower after intraday fluctuations, and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, failing to provide strong support for the asphalt spot market. The rain and snow in East China affected terminal demand, with limited downstream purchases, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weak, so the mainstream spot transaction price remained stable [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][19][22]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - After the bullish factors of asphalt raw materials are gradually digested, the supply - demand returns to an equilibrium level, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to oil price performance [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2603, the opening price was 3,149 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,142 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,126 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.29%, and the trading volume was 124,800 lots. For BU2604, the opening price was 3,166 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,151 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,166 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,138 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.32%, and the trading volume was 12,300 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in North China rose slightly, while those in Shandong and East China declined. The prices in other regions remained basically stable. Snow and rain limited the release of rigid demand [6]. - Supply: Shengxing Petrochemical planned to switch to asphalt production on the 16th, but Qilu Petrochemical switched to residue production on the 15th. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to remain basically flat next week [7]. - Demand: Cold air will strengthen in the next ten days, with obvious snow and rain in the Huanghuai and Jiangnan regions. Road construction projects in East and Central China may gradually enter the final or suspension stage. Winter - storage contracts in the north will continue to arrive. Overall demand is expected to have limited fluctuations, and speculative demand is expected to increase slightly [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A - grade asphalt was 3,010 - 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Cooling and snowfall in Shandong and surrounding areas restricted the release of rigid demand, leading to price cuts by some brand traders [8]. - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A - grade asphalt was 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand was weak, with traders and downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Social inventory prices were also stable [8]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report includes data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][15][18][23]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a predominantly positive trend, particularly in asphalt futures, which have increased by 2.92% to 2993.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] Supply - Domestic refineries are gradually resuming asphalt production, leading to a recovery in asphalt capacity utilization rates [1] - Social inventory levels are mixed, with factory inventories slightly increasing due to the resumption of production by some refineries [1] Demand - Market demand is showing a regional divergence: northern regions are primarily driven by winter storage needs, while southern regions are supported by essential demand, leading to active production cuts by refineries and smooth shipping, which helps reduce inventory levels [1] Inventory - As of the week ending December 15, the total inventory of asphalt across 54 sample factories in China reached 625,000 tons, reflecting a 1.1% increase from December 11 [1] - The inventory increase is particularly notable in the South China region, attributed to intermittent production by some major refineries and pressure on high-priced sales [1] Market Outlook - According to Guoxin Guozheng Futures, the slight decrease in asphalt capacity utilization and the continued slowdown in inventory reduction indicate a weak supply-demand balance, with subdued demand in northern regions and weak terminal demand in southern regions, suggesting that asphalt prices will experience fluctuations in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and inventories are at a low level. The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly, but the overall market is still weak [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week-on-week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. The supply in North China decreased, and its shipments decreased significantly. The national shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons week-on-week, at a moderately low level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States increased, and the crude oil price rebounded slightly. This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low. With the arrival of the cold wave, the temperature in the north continues to drop, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in projects in the south is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.13% to 3,045 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 10,781 to 181,181 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong increased to 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract increased to -15 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week-on-week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to -0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 14, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery has reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The inventory remains stable, and the cost support from crude oil strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of national sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% [8]. - **Basis**: On November 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port - diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The document provides the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The document shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are provided [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The document shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 are shown [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventories of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [49][50] - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are provided [53][55] - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical output trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56][57] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are shown [59][60] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The historical estimated trends of maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided [61][62] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented [64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown [68][69] - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided [71][72] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [74][75] - The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown [77][78][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are provided [80][81] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [83][84] - **Downstream Demand** - The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown [86][87][88] - The historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are provided [90][91][92] - The historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [95][96] - The historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [98][99] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation** - The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided [100][101][103] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, port - diluted asphalt inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries increasing production recently, which is expected to further increase supply pressure next week. The planned total production of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is all below the historical average, although there are slight increases in some areas [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47% [7]. - The inventory of asphalt is decreasing. The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; and the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33% [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3143 - 3189 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the cost is supported by high - level crude oil. The overall fundamentals are considered slightly positive [7]. - **Likely factors**: High - level crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - **Negative factors**: High - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 09 contracts, have declined to varying degrees compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 contract price is 3166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value [15]. - The basis of the 01 contract is - 26 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The inventory shows a downward trend, including social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [20][21]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [23][24]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for relative value analysis [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [39][40][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply situation [42][43]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, helping to understand the inventory situation of raw materials [44][45]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the overall supply capacity [47][48]. - **Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the production capacity of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly asphalt production capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the inventory situation in the futures market [61][62][64]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025, helping to understand the overall inventory situation [65][66]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report presents the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of enterprises [68][69]. - **Import and export situation**: - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [71][72][75]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the impact of infrastructure construction on asphalt demand [83][84][85]. - The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [87][88][91]. - **Asphalt construction rate**: - The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for asphalt in different application scenarios [92][93][96]. - **Downstream construction situation**: - The report presents the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [97][98][100]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand, which is useful for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].