Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large fluctuations in the market. It is necessary to control risks and participate cautiously, while paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the domestic asphalt planned production is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons or 22.4% month-on-month, and a decrease of 764,000 tons or 33.3% year-on-year [1] - Demand side: After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week-on-week, returning to the level at the end of January. Last week, the national shipment volume increased by 14.66% week-on-week to 126,000 tons, still at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week-on-week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong region remained stable, and the basis was repaired to a moderately low level [1] - Raw materials: China's imported crude oil from Venezuela is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Coupled with the current attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2606 fell 1.53% to 4,512 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 4,440 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4,630 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 211 to 274,080 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 4,420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to -92 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week-on-week compared to the week of March 20, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the asphalt price turned from weak to strong. At the beginning of March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices, the asphalt market was just slowly recovering from the Spring Festival holiday, with weak downstream demand. The increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, and the asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Shandong reduced production and supply, leading to inventory reduction and a strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up [5][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In early March, the asphalt market was in the off - season, and the increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, with the asphalt crack spread dropping to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in different regions reduced production, supply contracted, and inventory decreased, supporting the strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. 3.2 Supply Overview - From January to April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 7.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25 million tons (-15%). In April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 980,000 tons (-44%). The planned asphalt production of local refineries in April is about 740,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons (-19%) and a year - on - year decrease of 310,000 tons (-30%) [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) [16][18]. 3.3 Demand Overview - In March 2026, domestic asphalt demand was weak, with obvious north - south differentiation. The overall demand did not reach the seasonal expectation, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. As of March 20, the operating rate of road modified asphalt was 10%, about 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36%, about 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The refinery's shipment volume was at a low level, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons (-9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons (-35%) on March 20 [28]. 3.4 Inventory and Valuation - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt inventory showed a structural differentiation of a first - decreasing and then - increasing refinery inventory and a continuously high social inventory. The overall supply - demand pattern was tight. The asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level, and the basis fluctuated sharply but showed an overall upward trend [32][33][34]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up. - Strategy recommendations: 1. For single - side trading, hold long positions in BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks. 2. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. 3. For options, take a wait - and - see approach [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large price fluctuations. The supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation. The market should control risks and participate cautiously [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil [4][21] - In April, the planned asphalt production in China is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) month - on - month and 764,000 tons (33.3%) year - on - year [4] - Next week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate is expected to decrease slightly. With the Strait of Hormuz still not navigable, the expectation of refinery production cuts increases [4] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [4][32] - In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in January - December 2025 but still showing a year - on - year negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) in January - February 2026 was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% in January - December 2025 [32] 3.3 Market Conditions - The asphalt price in Shandong remained stable, and the basis was still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 202 yuan/ton [4][17] - The asphalt/原油 ratio rose to 6.12 [14] - As of the week of March 27, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.66% week - on - week to 126,000 tons, still at a low level [4][27] - As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, oil prices will still be constrained by a weak but gradually tightening supply - demand balance. OPEC+ may manage production prudently. Geopolitical tensions will maintain a risk premium on oil prices, but price increases are often short - lived. Brent oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely around $70 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the second half [3][194][234]. - For fuel oil, the continuous increase in production by OPEC+ brings double negative effects to high - sulfur fuel oil, but geopolitical disturbances offset the negative effects. High - sulfur fuel oil shows short - term supply reduction and medium - long - term supply increase, with continuous demand reduction. Future fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,400 - 3,200 yuan per ton [4][196][237]. - For asphalt, although the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are intensifying, the crude oil production of these two countries is growing steadily. The supply of asphalt may be adjusted due to the reduction of small - capacity refineries, and the demand is expected to maintain a low growth rate. Future asphalt prices may continue to decline, but are expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,100 - 3,400 yuan per ton in the near term [5][197][237]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Industrial Chain Analysis 3.1.1 Crude Oil Industry Chain and Price Influencing Factors - Crude oil can be classified by composition, specific gravity, and sulfur content. The industrial chain is divided into upstream (exploration, extraction, and processing), mid - stream (primary and secondary processing), and downstream (refining into various products for different uses) [13][14][15]. - Price influencing factors include demand, supply, geopolitics, and market speculation [20][22]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil Industry Chain and Price Influencing Factors - Fuel oil is a heavy - oil product in the middle of the industrial chain, composed of upstream refineries, mid - stream service providers, and downstream end - users. It can be classified in multiple ways and is mainly used in transportation, refining, and power generation [23][24]. - Price influencing factors include international crude oil price fluctuations, the global shipping market, the supply - demand situation in the Singapore market, environmental protection requirements, and exchange rates [29][30]. 3.1.3 Asphalt Industry Chain and Price Influencing Factors - Asphalt is a product of crude oil processing. The industrial chain includes upstream raw material suppliers, mid - stream production enterprises, and downstream application fields such as roads and construction [33]. - Price influencing factors include the macro - economy, crude oil prices, road construction, and seasonal factors [34][38]. 3.2 Second Part: Introduction to Crude Oil - Related Futures and Option Contracts 3.2.1 Crude Oil Futures and Option Contracts and Delivery Systems - Crude oil futures contract: trading unit is 1,000 barrels per lot, with specific trading rules and delivery requirements [39]. - Crude oil option contract: contract type includes call and put options, with detailed trading rules and exercise price settings [42]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil Futures Contract and Delivery System - The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, with specific trading rules and delivery requirements for RMG 380 marine fuel oil [53]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Futures Contract and Delivery System - The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, with specific trading rules and delivery requirements for 70 - grade A road petroleum asphalt [57]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Historical Market Review - From 2020 - 2025, crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt prices fluctuated significantly. Crude oil prices were affected by the global economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production cuts; fuel oil and asphalt prices mainly followed crude oil price fluctuations [67]. 3.3.2 2025 Market Review - Crude oil prices showed a "rush up and fall back, wide - range shock" pattern. Fuel oil prices trended downward in a shock, and asphalt prices fluctuated widely [79][83][84]. 3.3.3 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the cumulative trading volume of crude oil futures was 38,882,241 lots, with a monthly average of 3,240,186 lots; the cumulative trading volume of fuel oil futures was 192,087,708 lots, with a monthly average of 16,007,309 lots; the cumulative trading volume of asphalt futures was 83,617,090 lots, with a monthly average of 6,968,090 lots [89][90][95]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Analysis of the Crude Oil Industry Supply Pattern 3.4.1 Crude Oil Supply Analysis - OPEC+ production: The previous production cuts started in October 2022. In 2025, OPEC+ began to exit the production - cut cycle and planned to increase production gradually [96][100]. - US production: US crude oil supply in 2025 was relatively abundant, with high production levels and limited growth momentum [101][103]. 3.4.2 Fuel Oil Supply Analysis - In 2025, domestic fuel oil supply was at a low level in recent years. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, and regional supply was differentiated. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads were affected by multiple factors [106][113]. 3.4.3 Asphalt Supply Analysis - Since 2020, China's asphalt production has declined. In 2025, domestic asphalt supply showed a structurally surplus pattern. The开工 rate was affected by seasonality, and imports and exports had certain trends [116][118][125]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Analysis of the Crude Oil Industry Consumption Pattern 3.5.1 Macroeconomic Analysis - Trump's energy new policy 2.0 may restructure the demand for oil and shipping. The PMIs of the US and Europe are below the boom - bust line, and the global economy faces risks such as geopolitics, inflation, and monetary policy [126][133]. 3.5.2 US Crude Oil Demand Analysis - In 2025, US crude oil demand growth was mainly driven by NGLs/LPG. In 2026, US crude oil demand is expected to increase by about 110,000 barrels per day year - on - year [140][142]. 3.5.3 China Crude Oil Demand Analysis - In 2025, China's crude oil demand growth was led by naphtha. In 2026, China's crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be the same as in 2025 [148][149]. 3.5.4 Fuel Oil Demand Analysis - In 2025, shipping market freight indices were relatively stable. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil was affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Middle - East power generation demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory was at a relatively high level [152][154][161]. 3.5.5 Asphalt Demand Analysis - Domestic asphalt demand is mainly in the road and waterproofing directions. In 2025, the apparent consumption of petroleum asphalt increased. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, asphalt demand may maintain a low growth rate [169][176][177]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Summary and Analysis of the Crude Oil Industry Supply - Demand Situation 3.6.1 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - In 2026, global oil supply is expected to slightly exceed demand. The demand of OPEC+ member countries in 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downward compared with the previous month's assessment [188]. 3.6.2 Asphalt Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - Trump's expected promotion of the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may suppress asphalt cracking spreads. The supply side may change structurally, and demand is expected to maintain a low growth rate. Asphalt prices may continue to decline [193]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Analysis and Outlook of Arbitrage Opportunities - In 2026, oil prices will be affected by supply - demand balance and geopolitics. Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,400 - 3,200 yuan per ton, and asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan per ton [194][196][197]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Corporate Futures Hedging Cases - Downstream enterprises can lock in crude oil procurement costs through futures trading; fuel oil trading enterprises can avoid basis risk through basis contracts; asphalt enterprises can hedge inventory risks through futures [200][202][206]. 3.9 Ninth Part: Industry Enterprise Research and 2026 Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices may fall to about $30 per barrel by 2027. Market participants' views on fuel oil and asphalt in December 2025 show different trends [210][213]. 3.10 Tenth Part: Technical Analysis and Outlook of Futures Prices 3.10.1 Price Seasonal Analysis - Crude oil prices perform better in April, June, and September and are more likely to decline in May and November. Fuel oil prices are affected by summer power generation and shipping demand, and asphalt prices are stronger in summer and weaker in winter [214][217][220]. 3.10.2 Technical Analysis - Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. Fuel oil prices may range from 2,400 - 3,200 yuan per ton, and asphalt prices are expected to maintain a relatively weak shock pattern between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan per ton [223][225][232]. 3.11 Eleventh Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The market outlook for 2026 is similar to the analysis in the seventh part, with predictions for oil, fuel oil, and asphalt prices [234][237]. 3.12 Twelfth Part: Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - The document provides the current prices and annual price changes of stocks related to the crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt industries as of February 26, 2026 [239][240][243].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is high in the short - term, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the inventory shows a pattern of continuous accumulation in social and factory inventories and continuous depletion in port inventories. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and it is expected that the asphalt futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [8][9][10] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is currently lower than the historical average [9] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9] - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [9][10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of different contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 38 to 3378, a decline of 1.11%; the 03 contract increased by 43 to 3632, an increase of 1.20% [16] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For example, the basis of the 06 contract was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20, a decrease of 12.27% [16] - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Social inventory was 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; factory inventory was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The operating rates of different types of asphalt and related products showed different changes [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price differences between different contracts [25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the profitability of asphalt refining [31] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among them [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report provides the historical trends of the prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the analysis of asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, and provides relevant historical trend charts from 2019 to 2026 [41][44] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt output, operating rate, estimated maintenance loss volume, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [47][50][53] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the analysis of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [69][73][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which helps to understand the import and export situation of asphalt [79][82][84] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, downstream operating conditions, etc.), and provides relevant historical trend charts [85][87][90] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On February 24, 2026, compared with February 13, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) rose from 3264 to 3334, an increase of 70 or 2.14%; BU2604 rose from 3280 to 3348, an increase of 68 or 2.07%; BU2605 rose from 3284 to 3364, an increase of 80 or 2.44%; SC2603 rose from 460.7 to 493.3, an increase of 32.6 or 7.08%; Brent first - line rose from 67.33 to 71.65, an increase of 4.3 or 6.42%. The main contract position increased from 14.3 to 14.6 (in ten thousand lots), an increase of 0.3 or 1.76%, and the trading volume decreased from 16.9 to 15.4 (in ten thousand lots), a decrease of 1.5 or 8.59%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased from 69070 to 77620 tons, an increase of 8550 or 12.38% [2] - **Basis and Spread**: BU04 - 05 decreased from - 4.00 to - 16.00, a decrease of 12.00 or - 500.00%; BU04 - 03 increased from - 16.00 to - 14.00, an increase of 2.00 or 12.50%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased from 60.00 to 82.00, an increase of 22.00 or 36.67%; the East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20.00 to - 68.00, a decrease of 48.00 or - 240.00%; the South China - main contract basis decreased from 30.00 to - 38.00, a decrease of 68.00 or - 226.67% [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price rose from 3210 to 3300, an increase of 90.00 or 2.80%; the East China market price rose from 3260 to 3280, an increase of 20.00 or 0.61%; the South China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline decreased from 7319 to 7225, a decrease of 94.00 or - 1.28%; Shandong diesel decreased from 5619 to 5561, a decrease of 58.00 or - 1.03%; Shandong petroleum coke increased from 2750 to 2800, an increase of 50.00 or 1.82%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate middle price increased from 6.9398 to 6.9414, an increase of 0.00 or 0.02% [2] - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased from - 26.90 to - 199.13, a decrease of 172.23 or - 640.17%; the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from - 49.69 to - 307.39, a decrease of 257.70 or - 518.63%; the BU - SC cracking decreased from - 460.46 to - 638.26, a decrease of 177.80 or - 38.61%; the gasoline spot - Brent decreased from 861.57 to 552.67, a decrease of 308.90 or - 35.85%; the diesel spot - Brent decreased from 47.14 to - 229.90, a decrease of 277.04 or - 587.68% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: On February 24, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3365 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton increase or 1.18% compared with the previous day. During the Spring Festival, demand and road transportation were restricted, but crude oil prices rose significantly. Supported by costs, northern traders mainly raised their quotes, driving up the average domestic asphalt market price. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose by 85 to 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton. Although the international situation was volatile and crude oil prices were strong, the overall transaction was average due to insufficient recovery of rigid demand. In addition, some refineries in Shandong resumed production, and there was still a contract to be executed at the end of the month, so the short - term asphalt price was weak. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3280 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the cost and futures market were strong during the Spring Festival, the demand in the region had not recovered, and the overall market transaction was average. The inventory of the main refineries was controllable, and the shipping price might still rise. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton. The market demand was gradually weakening, and the inventory level was low, so the price remained stable. The actual market demand may continue to decrease, and the local mainstream price may remain stable in the short term [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of gasoline from Shandong local refineries, and the price of diesel from Shandong local refineries [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to have a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side may see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and raw material supply is expected to tighten after the Spring Festival, which may support the spot market. The demand side is seasonally weak, and asphalt is expected to follow the trend of oil prices [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the trading volume and price changes of BU2604 and BU2606 contracts are presented. BU2604 closed at 3343 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%, and the trading volume was 17.51 million lots. BU2606 closed at 3348 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%, and the trading volume was 3.54 million lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in the Northeast and Shandong regions increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The supply and demand in the asphalt spot market are both weak, and prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side may see a decline in the operating load rate, and raw material supply may tighten after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak due to low temperatures and project shutdowns [6]. 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3290 - 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Most projects have stopped, and the rigid demand is low. However, the inventory is limited, and the supply side has no pressure, so the price remains stable [7]. - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3250 - 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although the increase in crude oil prices supports the cost, the weak terminal demand restricts the market, and the price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [7]. 3. Data Overview - Includes various data charts such as asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit in Shandong, spot price in South China, basis in Shandong, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][13][18]

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to have a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply and potential price increases after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and asphalt is expected to mainly follow the movement of oil prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2604, the opening price was 3347 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3373 yuan/ton, the highest was 3374 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3324 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.51%, and the trading volume was 132,000 lots. For BU2606, the opening price was 3365 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3370 yuan/ton, the highest was 3372 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3329 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.48%, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in various domestic regions were generally stable. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the asphalt spot market were both weak, and prices tended to be stable. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and most projects in the south have gradually stopped work [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3180 - 3240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures maintained a range-bound trend, providing no obvious guidance to spot prices. Most transactions remained weak [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3290 - 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most projects have stopped work, and asphalt demand is low. However, the inventory of asphalt in refineries and social warehouses is limited, and there is no pressure on the supply side [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit in Shandong, spot price in South China, basis in Shandong, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][13][18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - **Some Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - **Weekly Data**: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Prices in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - **In - Plant Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the positive factors of asphalt raw materials are gradually digested, the supply and demand return to an equilibrium level, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of oil prices [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2603, the opening price was 3,142 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,124 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.03%, and the trading volume was 1.189 million lots. For BU2604, the opening price was 3,166 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,152 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,138 yuan/ton, the change was 0, and the trading volume was 0.113 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions decreased, while those in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Due to cooling and rainy and snowy weather, the rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline [6] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, Shengxing Petrochemical planned to switch to asphalt production on the 16th, but Qilu Petrochemical switched to residue production on the 15th, and the operating load rate of asphalt plants next week is expected to remain basically the same. On the demand side, cold air will strengthen in the next ten days, with obvious rain and snow in the Huanghuai to the Yangtze River region. Road construction projects in East and Central China may gradually enter the final or suspension stage. Winter storage contracts in the north will continue to arrive, and overall demand is expected to fluctuate little. With the seasonal decline in terminal demand and the lack of new positive factors, the sentiment in the asphalt market may remain cautious, and speculative demand is expected to increase limitedly [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,000 - 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, providing no guidance for the asphalt spot market. The obvious temperature drop in Shandong and surrounding areas in recent days led to a decrease in terminal rigid demand, weakening spot transactions, and some brand traders lowered their quotes, driving down the market price [8] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Brent crude oil futures closed lower after intraday fluctuations, and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, failing to provide strong support for the asphalt spot market. The rain and snow in East China affected terminal demand, with limited downstream purchases, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weak, so the mainstream spot transaction price remained stable [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][19][22]