1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **By - Use Classification**: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The overall supply pressure is increasing [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased, raising the supply pressure. Next week, the supply pressure may further increase [8]. - **Demand**: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory are all decreasing continuously [11]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. - **Likely positives**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [13]. - **Likely negatives**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related indicators, including price changes, inventory changes, production volume changes, etc. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.21%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: Shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - Displays the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2020 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: Displays the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: Displays the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: Displays the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical data from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: Displays the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, construction asphalt开工率, and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96][98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: Displays the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and refineries reduced production, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt have low or decreased operating rates, while the waterproofing membrane operating rate has increased [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - The refinery's recent production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt operating rate is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt operating rate is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt operating rate is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane operating rate is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. - **Leverage and Inventory**: On June 26, the spot price in Shandong is 3805 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 242 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the factory inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [11]. - **Market Conditions**: The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The bullish factor is that the relative high price of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14][15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Conditions - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which can help investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads are shown, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown, which is important for analyzing the refining profit margins [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which can help in relative - value analysis [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Conditions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which can help in understanding the spot - market price movements [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trends of asphalt profit are presented, which can help in understanding the profitability of asphalt production [37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread are shown, which is important for analyzing the profit - distribution between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side sales situation [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material inventory [46]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production levels [49]. - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material situation [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production structure [56]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical weekly operating rates of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production activity [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimation are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side production interruptions [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) are presented, which can help in understanding the inventory situation in the futures market [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) are presented, which can help in understanding the overall inventory situation [68]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio are presented, which can help in understanding the factory's inventory management [71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread from South Korea are presented, which can help in understanding the international - trade situation of asphalt [74]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side related - product production [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption are presented, which can help in understanding the overall demand situation [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The historical trends of highway - construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special - purpose bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented, which can help in understanding the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [86]. - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales are presented, which can help in understanding the downstream mechanical - equipment demand for asphalt - related projects [90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of heavy - traffic asphalt [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of different types of asphalt [98]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption in different downstream industries [99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to June 2025 are presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which can help in comprehensively understanding the supply - demand situation [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 34.9952%, a month - on - month increase of 5.752 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises increased by 19.67% month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 0.82% month - on - month. Refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2624%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 501.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 391.7057 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.13%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2507 fluctuating in the range of 3475 - 3529 [10]. - Bullish factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [14]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [15]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [16]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The increase in refinery production has led to an increase in supply pressure. The planned production in May 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment volume increased this week, while the maintenance volume decreased [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average, with different downstream开工率s showing mixed trends [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit loss decreased, and the profit difference with delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the price [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2507 in the 3475 - 3529 range [10]. - Bullish and bearish factors: Bullish due to crude oil cost support; bearish due to weak demand and economic recession expectations [14][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On May 19, the spot price in Shandong was 3615 yuan/ton, and the 07 - contract basis was 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [12]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.381 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%; factory inventory was 0.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.93%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 110,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month. Social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is stable [12]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 07 - contract futures price closed above MA20, which is bullish [12]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [12]. 3.3 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract futures price increased by 0.09%, and the 06 - contract decreased by 0.23% [19]. - Inventory data: Social inventory decreased by 1.00%, factory inventory increased by 3.93%, and port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Production and shipment data: The sample enterprise output increased by 19.67%, and the shipment volume increased by 7.23% [19]. - Profit data: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 12.05%, and the weekly delayed coking profit decreased by 44.14% [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: Provided the historical trends of asphalt base differences in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Spread analysis**: - Main - contract spread: Showed the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Presented the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Displayed the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: Showed the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Showed the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - Asphalt profit: Presented the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread: Showed the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - Shipment volume: Displayed the historical weekly shipment volume trends from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Presented the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - Production: Showed the historical weekly and monthly production trends from 2019 to 2025 [51][52]. - Marrucán crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil production: Displayed the historical trends of Marrucán crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [55][57]. - Local refinery asphalt production: Presented the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - Operating rate: Showed the historical weekly operating rate trends from 2023 to 2025 [61][62]. - Maintenance loss estimate: Presented the historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2025 [64][65]. - **Inventory analysis**: - Exchange warehouse receipts: Displayed the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67][68][69]. - Social and factory inventory: Showed the historical trends of social and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [72][73]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: Presented the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [75][76]. - **Import - export analysis**: - Asphalt import and export trends: Showed the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import spread: Presented the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [81][82][83]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - Petroleum coke production: Showed the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: Presented the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and infrastructure investment: Showed the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Downstream mechanical demand: Presented the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97]. - Downstream operating conditions: Showed the historical trends of different types of asphalt operating rates and downstream product operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provided the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand data [110][111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - In April 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 39.4115%, a month - on - month increase of 2.477 percentage points. The refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is all below the historical average, although they have increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 594.51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 619.09 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation - The refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and fails to meet expectations. Inventory is continuously decreasing. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3397 - 3463 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [7]. - **Basis**: On April 29, the Shandong spot price was 3560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Factory inventory was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged at 140,000 tons. Social inventory is continuously increasing, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory remains stable. Bullish [10]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20. Neutral [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with long positions turning to short. Bearish [10]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview, including the prices, price changes, and price change rates of different asphalt contracts, inventory, production, and other indicators [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [65]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the difference between asphalt import and export from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of downstream mechanical demand such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales [87][91][93]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][99][102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from April 2024 to April 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [107].