交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降幅5 1% 同比 ， . ， . , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增幅17 1% 。 . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为36 3734% 环比减少0 06个百分点 全国样 ， ， . . | | | | | 本企业出货31 36万吨 . | 环比增加31 10% 样本企业产量为60 7万吨 环比减少0 16% 样本企业 ， . . ， . , , | | | | | 装置检修量预估为69 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure. Next week, supply pressure may further decrease [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis shows that on September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and device maintenance volume changed accordingly, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all in a state of being lower than the historical average, with some showing a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. In - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the asphalt market on September 12, including current values, previous values, price changes, and price change percentages of different contracts, heavy - traffic asphalt market mainstream prices, registered warehouse receipts, basis, downstream demand opening rates, asphalt coking profit differences, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss amounts, weekly opening rates, and weekly inventories [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these commodities [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical price trend of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between the two production processes [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side - Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Supply - Side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt at ports [44][45]. - **Supply - Side - Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall production situation of asphalt [47][48]. - **Supply - Side - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Supply - Side - Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Supply - Side - Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly opening rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [57][58]. - **Supply - Side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of enterprise maintenance on production [59][60]. - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Inventory - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [66][67]. - **Inventory - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72][73]. - **Demand - Side - Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand situation in related fields [78][79]. - **Demand - Side - Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand for asphalt [81][82]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [88][89][91]. - **Demand - Side - Asphalt Opening Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Opening Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt and modified asphalt opening rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [96][97]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Opening Situation**: The historical trends of the opening rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The asphalt market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. The short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral, and attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The "Short BU, Long SC" strategy should be continued [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% week - on - week increase. The resumption of production at Hebei Xinhai and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries, led to this increase. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production was - 491.7 yuan/ton, a 122.3 yuan/ton week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% week - on - week decrease. Shipments decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU followed the weak trend of crude oil, and the spot price remained stable. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3637 yuan/ton, a 9 yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3633 - 3647 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions**: Relevant data shows the trends of trading positions and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: The report presents the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of basis and monthly spreads in different regions [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 3.6% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase [22][26]. - **Supply**: - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From September 5 - 11, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 59.9 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease and a 41.9% year - on - year increase. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.8 tons, a 1.9% decrease from September 8, and the social inventory of asphalt was 165.3 tons, a 1.4% decrease from September 8 [30]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [33]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the overall market [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: With an increase in short - term maintenance volume and a decrease in rainy weather in the future, it was expected that asphalt would improve marginally. However, demand was still restricted by the capital side. It was anticipated that asphalt would have difficulty in having an independent market and would mainly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the overall trend of asphalt was volatile, following the trend of the cost - side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The decline in refinery operation rate led to a drop in refinery inventories. However, the social inventory, which had been having difficulty in destocking, still showed no sign of a sustainable decline. As the peak season deepened, it would limit the upward space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, the refinery operation rate decreased, but it is expected to rise next week. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season. The upward space depends on whether demand can drive down the social inventory. However, due to the restriction of the capital side on demand, it is expected that there will be little room for a significant upward movement, and it will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly View - Analyzed last week's and this week's views on asphalt market trends, taking into account factors such as maintenance volume, rainy weather, capital - side restrictions, refinery supply and demand, and inventory changes [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview 3.2.1 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - Presented data on asphalt futures price trends, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU2509 - BU2512), and basis in the East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Showed data on asphalt plant operation rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Displayed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators, with data from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in the East China and South China regions, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on Shandong's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on East China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on South China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - Listed refineries under maintenance, including details such as production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacity, maintenance start and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2561 tons and a maintenance loss of 682,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33].

Report Information - Report Type: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to experience weak supply and demand with few highlights. The unilateral price mainly follows the movement of oil prices, but the fluctuation range is expected to be smaller than that of oil prices [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2510, the opening price was 3,506 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,471 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,512 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,458 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.53%, and the trading volume was 168,000 lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3,485 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,443 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,486 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,433 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.54%, and the trading volume was 76,900 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Prices in the Northeast and Shandong markets declined, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. The significant decline in crude oil prices had a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [6] - **Supply**: Hebei Xinghai plans to increase asphalt production at the end of the month. However, due to the possible temporary shutdown of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and the possible switch of some local refineries in Shandong to produce residual oil, the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to decline [6] - **Demand**: There was no obvious boost in demand. Rigid demand was restricted by funds and weather, market sentiment was relatively pessimistic, and speculative demand was released cautiously [6] 2. Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,490 - 3,510 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. As the asphalt futures price declined, some futures - spot traders sold forward contracts, but traders still temporarily kept the spot price stable, waiting for further market news [7] - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,470 - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The international oil price closed lower, the asphalt futures followed suit, and the sentiment in the spot market weakened again. Today, individual refineries and some traders lowered their quotes, driving down the transaction price in the Shandong market [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, asphalt warehouse receipts, Shandong asphalt spot price, and Shandong asphalt basis, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **By - Use Classification**: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

Group 1 - The domestic asphalt average price has decreased slightly, with a current average of 3856.71 CNY/ton, down by 10 CNY/ton or 0.26% compared to the previous period [1] - As of July 21, the main futures contract for asphalt closed at 3657.00 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3675.00 CNY/ton and a low of 3647.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 141,580 lots [2] - The total shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers reached 414,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.0% [3] Group 2 - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China reached 34.3%, an increase of 0.4% week-on-week, with a total production of 572,000 tons, up by 1.1% [3] - Recent reports indicate a noticeable decline in shipment volumes, with inventory depletion showing signs of reversal, and a slight downward trend in basis [4] - The overall performance during the peak demand season has been average, not exceeding market expectations, with a focus on inventory depletion in the near term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The overall supply pressure is increasing [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased, raising the supply pressure. Next week, the supply pressure may further increase [8]. - **Demand**: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory are all decreasing continuously [11]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. - **Likely positives**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [13]. - **Likely negatives**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related indicators, including price changes, inventory changes, production volume changes, etc. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.21%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: Shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - Displays the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2020 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: Displays the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: Displays the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: Displays the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical data from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: Displays the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, construction asphalt开工率, and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96][98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: Displays the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].