沥青日报：震荡运行 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.7个百分点至29.0%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥青 开工环比下降1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区供应减 少，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少31.02%至21.3万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存 存货比环比转而小幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。欧美成品油裂解价差走高，原油价格小 幅反弹。本周山东胜星等炼厂计划转产渣油，沥青开工率将维持低位。寒潮来临，北方气温持续下 降，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限。近期山东地区沥青基差维持 在中性水平，现货价格基本稳定，市场平淡，沥青期价偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2601合约下跌0.13%至3045元/吨，5日均线上方，最低价在3025元/吨，最高价 3066元/吨，持仓量减少10781至181181手。 基差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery has reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The inventory remains stable, and the cost support from crude oil strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of national sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% [8]. - **Basis**: On November 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port - diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The document provides the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The document shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are provided [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The document shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 are shown [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventories of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [49][50] - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are provided [53][55] - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical output trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56][57] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are shown [59][60] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The historical estimated trends of maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided [61][62] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented [64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown [68][69] - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided [71][72] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [74][75] - The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown [77][78][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are provided [80][81] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [83][84] - **Downstream Demand** - The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown [86][87][88] - The historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are provided [90][91][92] - The historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [95][96] - The historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [98][99] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation** - The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided [100][101][103] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, port - diluted asphalt inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries increasing production recently, which is expected to further increase supply pressure next week. The planned total production of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is all below the historical average, although there are slight increases in some areas [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47% [7]. - The inventory of asphalt is decreasing. The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; and the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33% [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3143 - 3189 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the cost is supported by high - level crude oil. The overall fundamentals are considered slightly positive [7]. - **Likely factors**: High - level crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - **Negative factors**: High - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 09 contracts, have declined to varying degrees compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 contract price is 3166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value [15]. - The basis of the 01 contract is - 26 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The inventory shows a downward trend, including social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [20][21]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [23][24]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for relative value analysis [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [39][40][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply situation [42][43]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, helping to understand the inventory situation of raw materials [44][45]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the overall supply capacity [47][48]. - **Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the production capacity of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly asphalt production capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the inventory situation in the futures market [61][62][64]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025, helping to understand the overall inventory situation [65][66]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report presents the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of enterprises [68][69]. - **Import and export situation**: - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [71][72][75]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the impact of infrastructure construction on asphalt demand [83][84][85]. - The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [87][88][91]. - **Asphalt construction rate**: - The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for asphalt in different application scenarios [92][93][96]. - **Downstream construction situation**: - The report presents the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [97][98][100]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand, which is useful for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - **Cost**: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - **Maintenance Loss**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.0326%，环比减少1.14个百分点，全国样 本企业出货22.13万吨，环比减少29.38%,样本企业产量为61.8万吨，环比减少2.98%,样本企业 装置检修量预估为62.5万吨，环比增加1.96%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减 少供给压力。 3 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.5%，环比减少0.06个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, while the demand - side recovery is weak. High - price goods have insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The profit of asphalt processing losses has decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. The current demand is below the historical average, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. It is predicted that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7][9][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise shipments were 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [7] - **Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [7] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. The social, in - factory, and port inventories are all continuously decreasing [7] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production to relieve supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, production changes, and profit changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.76% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [19][20] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [22][23] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [25][26][27] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [34][35] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [41][42] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [43][44] - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt [46][47] - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of local refineries [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production capacity utilization situation of asphalt [56][57] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the exchange [61][62][63] - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the asphalt market [65][66] - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation of factories [68][69] - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the import and export situation of asphalt [71][72] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of petroleum coke [77][78] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the overall demand situation of asphalt [80][81] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in highway construction [83][84] - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the impact of policies on asphalt demand [85] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in downstream machinery [87][88][90] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt for different uses [95][96] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the capacity utilization situation of downstream industries [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [103][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure. Next week, supply pressure may further decrease [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis shows that on September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and device maintenance volume changed accordingly, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all in a state of being lower than the historical average, with some showing a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. In - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the asphalt market on September 12, including current values, previous values, price changes, and price change percentages of different contracts, heavy - traffic asphalt market mainstream prices, registered warehouse receipts, basis, downstream demand opening rates, asphalt coking profit differences, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss amounts, weekly opening rates, and weekly inventories [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these commodities [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical price trend of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between the two production processes [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side - Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Supply - Side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt at ports [44][45]. - **Supply - Side - Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall production situation of asphalt [47][48]. - **Supply - Side - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Supply - Side - Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Supply - Side - Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly opening rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [57][58]. - **Supply - Side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of enterprise maintenance on production [59][60]. - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Inventory - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [66][67]. - **Inventory - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72][73]. - **Demand - Side - Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand situation in related fields [78][79]. - **Demand - Side - Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand for asphalt [81][82]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [88][89][91]. - **Demand - Side - Asphalt Opening Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Opening Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt and modified asphalt opening rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [96][97]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Opening Situation**: The historical trends of the opening rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The asphalt market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. The short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral, and attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The "Short BU, Long SC" strategy should be continued [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% week - on - week increase. The resumption of production at Hebei Xinhai and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries, led to this increase. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production was - 491.7 yuan/ton, a 122.3 yuan/ton week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% week - on - week decrease. Shipments decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU followed the weak trend of crude oil, and the spot price remained stable. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3637 yuan/ton, a 9 yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3633 - 3647 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions**: Relevant data shows the trends of trading positions and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: The report presents the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of basis and monthly spreads in different regions [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 3.6% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase [22][26]. - **Supply**: - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From September 5 - 11, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 59.9 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease and a 41.9% year - on - year increase. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.8 tons, a 1.9% decrease from September 8, and the social inventory of asphalt was 165.3 tons, a 1.4% decrease from September 8 [30]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [33]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the overall market [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: With an increase in short - term maintenance volume and a decrease in rainy weather in the future, it was expected that asphalt would improve marginally. However, demand was still restricted by the capital side. It was anticipated that asphalt would have difficulty in having an independent market and would mainly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the overall trend of asphalt was volatile, following the trend of the cost - side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The decline in refinery operation rate led to a drop in refinery inventories. However, the social inventory, which had been having difficulty in destocking, still showed no sign of a sustainable decline. As the peak season deepened, it would limit the upward space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, the refinery operation rate decreased, but it is expected to rise next week. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season. The upward space depends on whether demand can drive down the social inventory. However, due to the restriction of the capital side on demand, it is expected that there will be little room for a significant upward movement, and it will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly View - Analyzed last week's and this week's views on asphalt market trends, taking into account factors such as maintenance volume, rainy weather, capital - side restrictions, refinery supply and demand, and inventory changes [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview 3.2.1 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - Presented data on asphalt futures price trends, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU2509 - BU2512), and basis in the East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Showed data on asphalt plant operation rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Displayed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators, with data from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in the East China and South China regions, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on Shandong's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on East China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on South China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - Listed refineries under maintenance, including details such as production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacity, maintenance start and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2561 tons and a maintenance loss of 682,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33].