Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced significant volatility since August, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropping over 10% from their late July highs, indicating a shift in the market fundamentals [1] Supply Side Pressure - OPEC+ has announced production increases for four consecutive months since April, totaling over 1.2 million barrels per day, with a further increase of 547,000 barrels per day planned for September [3] - This shift in strategy from price stabilization to market share expansion has led to an upward revision in global crude oil supply expectations, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting a supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day for the year, up from a previous estimate of 1.81 million barrels per day [3] - The anticipated surplus in global crude oil supply has been adjusted to 1.64 million barrels per day, reflecting a broader trend of increasing supply expectations from major energy agencies [3] - The approval for Chevron to extract oil in Venezuela is expected to further boost global oil supply, despite a decline in U.S. oil production [3] - A potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation could reduce geopolitical risks, further weakening potential support for oil prices [3] Demand Growth Dynamics - U.S. gasoline demand during the driving season has fallen short of expectations, remaining below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks, which is below the five-year average [4] - China's gasoline consumption has also shown a declining trend, with a reported apparent consumption of 72.86 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.24% [4] - Global economic slowdown is significantly constraining oil demand, with disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data raising recession concerns and weakening oil demand expectations [4] - Seasonal factors are also impacting demand, as the summer peak consumption period is nearing its end, leading to expectations of a decrease in oil demand [4] - Despite U.S. crude oil inventories reaching their lowest levels in nearly five years and refinery utilization rates hitting 96.9%, these positive factors are expected to diminish as the summer driving season concludes [4]