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WTI与布伦特双双回落逾10%,国内原油跌破500元关口,全球供应过剩预期升至164万桶
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 23:46
进入8月份以来,国际原油市场经历了剧烈波动。美国WTI原油期货与布伦特原油期货价格较7月底高点累计最大跌幅均超过10%。国内原油期货主力合约同 样跌破500元/桶重要关口。市场多头力量明显萎缩,空头氛围日益浓厚。这一轮价格下跌背后,反映出原油市场基本面正在发生深刻变化。 供应端压力持续加大 "欧佩克+"自今年4月起已连续4个月宣布增产。累计增产超过120万桶/日。8月3日,该组织决定在9月进一步增产54.7万桶/日。这一举措提前1年完成了220万 桶/日的供应恢复计划。这一系列增产举措表明,"欧佩克+"的战略重心已从"价格维稳"转向"市场份额"。全球原油供应预期明显上升,油价承受显著压力。 各大能源机构纷纷上调了未来全球原油供给增长预期。美国能源信息署认为,今年全球原油供给增量将达到228万桶/日。而上月预期增量仅为181万桶/日。 同时,该机构对全球石油需求增量的调整幅度不大。这使得今年全球原油供给过剩量预期被上调至164万桶/日。国际能源署月报同样上调了全球原油供给增 长预测。以及今明两年原油市场供给过剩预期。 需求增长动力不足 需求方面呈现出复杂的局面。美国驾驶季汽油需求高峰不及预期。连续4周低于900 ...
基本面利空逐渐占据上风 原油价格中长期或承压
Group 1 - International crude oil prices have shown a downward trend since August, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures dropping over 10% from their highs at the end of July [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures have also fallen below the important threshold of 500 yuan per barrel, with a drop of 10.43% from the July 31 high [2][4] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations of oversupply and a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Group 2 - The market has seen a significant reduction in long positions, with WTI non-commercial net long positions decreasing by 14,194 contracts and Brent net long positions down by 19,559 contracts [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the ongoing increase in oil production by OPEC+ has exceeded market expectations, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [2][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 2.28 million barrels per day, while the demand growth forecast remains relatively unchanged, leading to an expected oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day [4][6] Group 3 - Seasonal demand for oil is expected to weaken as the summer consumption peak approaches its end, with overall demand growth projected to be less than 1 million barrels per day for the year [6][7] - The market is likely to seek a temporary balance between long-term supply pressures and short-term demand support, but the overall trend for oil prices is expected to be downward [6][7] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may still influence oil prices in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains bearish due to ongoing OPEC+ production increases and slow global economic growth [7][8]
“火药桶”上的油阀:以伊冲突再起,霍尔木兹海峡重回风暴眼
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-16 08:55
过去5天布伦特原油期货的走势 在伊朗议会国家安全委员会成员伊斯梅尔·库萨里14日通过国家电视台释放信号后,市场的恐慌情绪达到了新的顶点。库萨里宣称,德黑兰正在评估封锁霍 尔木兹海峡的可行性。 加密预测平台Polymarket的押注数据显示,投资者对"伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡"可能性的判断,从以色列空袭前的24%一度飙升至40%。 霍尔木兹海峡,这条每日输送约2000万桶石油及相关产品、占据全球海运石油贸易量近五分之一的战略水道,再次因地缘政治的动荡成为全球瞩目的焦点。 冲突升级,油价狂飙——霍尔木兹海峡的阴影再现 德黑兰与耶路撒冷上空再次被爆炸声笼罩,新一轮的军事打击将中东再次推向冲突的深渊。这场冲突的直接引爆点,是以色列于6月13日凌晨对伊朗发动的 大规模空袭。 一时间,"中东火药桶"被彻底点燃,全球能源供应链的神经瞬间绷紧,布伦特原油期货与美国WTI原油期货上周双双录得超过10%的惊人涨幅。周一亚洲早 盘,涨势延续,国内原油期货大涨近6%,价格创近两个月新高。 对全球原油市场来说,伊朗方面关于可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡的表态,无疑是火上浇油。 华尔街巨头们迅速作出反应:摩根大通将其模型中霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的"最坏情 ...
地缘冲突扰动再起黄金石油标的携手大涨
Group 1: Oil Market Insights - On June 13, international crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude futures rising over 14% to a peak of $77.62 per barrel, the highest since January 21 of this year [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures also saw a spike, reaching a limit-up price of 535.2 yuan per barrel, marking a new high since April 7, before closing at 529.9 yuan per barrel, up 7.9% [2] - Analysts attribute the surge in oil prices to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a weaker dollar due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, and strong fundamentals in the oil market [2][4] Group 2: Gold Market Developments - International gold prices also rose sharply, with London spot gold exceeding $3440 per ounce, reaching a high of $3444.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3467 per ounce, both marking new highs since April 22 [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. economic data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][5] - Domestic gold futures also experienced significant gains, with the main contract closing at 794.36 yuan per gram, up 1.72%, and peaking at 801.14 yuan per gram, the first time surpassing 800 yuan per gram since May 9 [3] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility in oil prices is expected due to market speculation, gold may exhibit stronger long-term performance due to its monetary and safe-haven attributes [4][5] - The potential for gold prices to reach between $3000 and $3200 per ounce for long positions, with a possibility of surpassing $3500 per ounce if geopolitical conflicts persist, is highlighted [5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the shift in monetary policy are likely to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to $3800 per ounce in the future [5]
地缘冲突引爆原油市场,短期油价或将继续受到风险溢价支撑
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 09:05
Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].
国际油价暴涨!油气股开盘大涨→
新华网财经· 2025-06-13 03:16
WTI原油期货日内暴涨超7%,现报73.39美元;国内原油期货主力合约封涨停,报535.2元/桶。 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 于东来:今年胖东来八千多名员工税后月均收入9000元,未来员工每周 工作不超36小时,年假40天起! 最新爆料!哪吒汽车通知员工今起居家办公!董事长方运舟已前往桐乡 6月13日,油气股开盘大涨,截至发稿,通源石油20%涨停,贝肯能源、准油股份涨停,中曼石油、潜 能恒信、新锦动力、惠博普、仁智股份、中海油服等多股跟涨。 | THE | 名不 | HORD . | 机价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920088 | 科力股份 | +26.22% | 39.95 | | 300164 | 通掠石沼 | +19.91% | 5.01 | | 300191 | 潜能恒信 | +11.42% | 22.25 | | 300483 | 三十八十 | +10.91% | 10.37 | | 002828 | 贝肯能源 | +10.03% | 10.04 | | 002207 | 灌油股份 | +9.94% | 6.86 | | GOS ...
国际油价暴涨!油气股开盘大涨→
新华网财经· 2025-06-13 03:15
WTI原油期货日内暴涨超7%,现报73.39美元;国内原油期货主力合约封涨停,报535.2元/桶。 来源:第一财经 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 于东来:今年胖东来八千多名员工税后月均收入9000元,未来员工每周 工作不超36小时,年假40天起! 最新爆料!哪吒汽车通知员工今起居家办公!董事长方运舟已前往桐乡 6月13日,油气股开盘大涨,截至发稿,通源石油20%涨停,贝肯能源、准油股份涨停,中曼石油、潜 能恒信、新锦动力、惠博普、仁智股份、中海油服等多股跟涨。 | THE | 名不 | HORD . | 机价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920088 | 科力股份 | +26.22% | 39.95 | | 300164 | 通掠石沼 | +19.91% | 5.01 | | 300191 | 潜能恒信 | +11.42% | 22.25 | | 300483 | 三十八十 | +10.91% | 10.37 | | 002828 | 贝肯能源 | +10.03% | 10.04 | | 002207 | 灌油股份 | +9.94% | 6.86 ...