1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [149]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures market continues to oscillate. Although the global inventory is gradually rising, the low inventory in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, supports oil prices and domestic chemicals [2]. - The chemical products market remains in an oscillating state. There is a divergence in the inventory of liquid chemicals, with the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports rising to the highest in the same period in five years, while the ethylene glycol inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years. Low - inventory and high - basis varieties are expected to perform better [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with an oscillating mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% uniform tariff from the US but hopes for lower rates in key industries. Trump threatens to impose new tariffs on Japan, and the US will announce trade agreements with multiple countries after July 4 [7]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a peak of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. Electric vehicles are expected to replace 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand by the end of the decade, and the petrochemical industry will become the main source of oil - demand growth from 2026 [7]. - An oil tanker "Villamoura" carrying 1 million barrels of oil exploded near Libya. Since the beginning of this year, four other ships have had similar explosions [7]. - China's manufacturing activity improved for the second consecutive month in June but remained in a contraction state. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing index rose from 50.3 to 50.5 [7]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On June 30, international crude oil futures continued to oscillate and declined slightly due to the record - high US production reported by EIA. The market is closely watching OPEC+'s production decision on July 6, with a high call for continued production increase in August. As global supply increases and the US changes its low - inventory pattern, oil prices may enter a downward trend [6][8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3,561 yuan/ton. With geopolitical cooling, OPEC+ may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the supply of heavy oil will increase. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and its absolute price and monthly spread are expected to decline [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,002 yuan/ton. Geopolitical cooling, increased supply of heavy oil, and reduced demand for power generation are negative factors. The overall supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,600 yuan/ton. It follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as reduced shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation and follow crude - oil fluctuations [11]. 3.2.5 LPG - On June 30, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton. The market is still cautious about geopolitical risks, but the supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change in the short term. The PG market is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12]. 3.2.6 PX - On June 30, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 874(6) dollars/ton. In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC+ production increase and concerns about global demand. Some domestic PX plants will be shut down for maintenance, and the market should focus on the implementation of device - change expectations [14]. 3.2.7 PTA - On June 30, the PTA spot price was 5,050(25) yuan/ton. This week, the crude - oil market may decline, and the support for PTA is weak. Although the supply of PTA is tight and the basis of July's supply is strong, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, so the PTA market is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - On June 30, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7,780(-170) yuan/ton. Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, the styrene price has corrected. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The market should be vigilant about the impact of short - squeezing events and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [15]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - On June 30, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level. The inventory in East China ports has dropped to the lowest in the same period in five years. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors should not short too aggressively [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - On June 30, the raw materials provided support, and the short - fiber futures remained stable. The short - fiber price follows the raw materials, and its own supply - demand situation is oscillating. The processing fee is expected to bottom out and rise [17]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - On June 30, the futures of polyester raw materials rose slightly, and the price of polyester bottle chips was mostly stable. The absolute price of bottle chips follows the raw materials, and the compression space of the processing fee is limited [18][20]. 3.2.12 Methanol - On June 30, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,780(-20) yuan/ton. With the easing of the Israel - Iran situation, the support for the methanol price has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the negative feedback from the downstream has emerged. The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.2.13 Urea - On June 30, 2025, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1,760(+0) and 1,790(-10) yuan/ton respectively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. The urea market is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in export quotas [22][23]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - On June 30, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7,300(0) yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in oil prices and the increase in supply, and the low downstream demand, the LLDPE 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - On June 30, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7,160(-20) yuan/ton. The cost is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window is limited. The PP market is expected to oscillate in the short term [26][27]. 3.2.16 PVC - The benchmark price of calcium - carbide - method PVC in East China was 4,860(+0) yuan/ton. Although the market risk preference has improved, the PVC supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the market should short on rallies [28]. 3.2.17 Caustic Soda - The 50% caustic - soda price in Shandong was 2,560(-40) yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as the decrease in electricity prices, the increase in production, and the weakening of demand, the caustic - soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost increases on production reduction [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the spreads (such as M1 - M2, 1 - 5 months, etc.) and basis of various energy and chemical products, as well as the changes in these data [31]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists different chemical products for basis and spread monitoring, specific content is not fully presented in the provided text.