化工日报 | 2025-11-11 华东主港大幅累库，本周到港计划仍多 核心观点 市场分析 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比+6.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有限。 策略 单边：谨慎逢高做空套保。高供应下四季度累库压力较大，后期投产计划较多，中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈 现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 跨期：EG2601-EG2605反套 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期现货方面：昨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non-standard HD injection molding prices are stable, while other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around -700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are fluctuating. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of overcapacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have slightly decreased. Coal sentiment is positive, and costs are stable. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regional spot and futures showed different degrees of decline, with the most significant decline in the port price of 15 [1]. - **Analysis**: The high import volume in November and the difficulty in resolving the 01 contract contradiction lead to limited inventory reduction and weak price increases [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of various regional spot and futures showed a downward trend, with the主力期货 price dropping by 9 on November 6 compared with the previous day [6]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, and the market is affected by factors such as import profits, production, and new device pressure [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene showed a downward trend, and the prices of various regional spot and futures also decreased. The主力期货 price dropped by 20 on November 6 compared with the previous day [6]. - **Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by factors such as valuation, supply, and demand [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained stable, while the prices of various PVC products showed a downward trend, with the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropping by 20 [6]. - **Analysis**: The basis remains stable, downstream开工率 is weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of some devices, the de - stocking pace slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and upcoming new production, long - term inventory build - up is expected. However, the processing fee has been at a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually recovers, opportunities to expand processing fees under potential additional maintenance should be monitored [1]. - Regarding MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced its load, while coal - based production has maintained its operation. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart situations. With stable arrivals and weak shipments, port inventories have slightly increased. Although new devices have been put into operation earlier than expected and valuations have been significantly compressed, considering the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the current inventory level is still not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based production costs [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate has increased due to some devices increasing their loads. Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and finished - product inventories have decreased. However, the profit margin is weak. In the future, the rate of increasing the start - up rate of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventories. The start - up rate of staple fiber will remain high due to good spot profit margins, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the case of natural rubber, the national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has also been stable. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, polyester load has remained basically stable, inventory has slightly accumulated, the basis has weakened, and spot processing fees have slightly recovered. Domestically, the start - up rate of PX has decreased, overseas devices have operated smoothly, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the price difference between US and Asian aromatics has widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again, and Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device underwent maintenance [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based EG production has slightly reduced its load, coal - based production has maintained its operation, overseas there are both maintenance and restart situations. Arrivals have remained stable while shipments have been weak, and port inventories have slightly increased at the beginning of next week. Downstream inventory levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the profit - to - price ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Situation**: Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, finished - product inventories have decreased, but the profit margin is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: There have been daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. [1]. - **Market Situation**: The national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has been stable due to rainfall [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [149]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures market continues to oscillate. Although the global inventory is gradually rising, the low inventory in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, supports oil prices and domestic chemicals [2]. - The chemical products market remains in an oscillating state. There is a divergence in the inventory of liquid chemicals, with the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports rising to the highest in the same period in five years, while the ethylene glycol inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years. Low - inventory and high - basis varieties are expected to perform better [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with an oscillating mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% uniform tariff from the US but hopes for lower rates in key industries. Trump threatens to impose new tariffs on Japan, and the US will announce trade agreements with multiple countries after July 4 [7]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a peak of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. Electric vehicles are expected to replace 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand by the end of the decade, and the petrochemical industry will become the main source of oil - demand growth from 2026 [7]. - An oil tanker "Villamoura" carrying 1 million barrels of oil exploded near Libya. Since the beginning of this year, four other ships have had similar explosions [7]. - China's manufacturing activity improved for the second consecutive month in June but remained in a contraction state. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing index rose from 50.3 to 50.5 [7]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On June 30, international crude oil futures continued to oscillate and declined slightly due to the record - high US production reported by EIA. The market is closely watching OPEC+'s production decision on July 6, with a high call for continued production increase in August. As global supply increases and the US changes its low - inventory pattern, oil prices may enter a downward trend [6][8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3,561 yuan/ton. With geopolitical cooling, OPEC+ may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the supply of heavy oil will increase. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and its absolute price and monthly spread are expected to decline [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,002 yuan/ton. Geopolitical cooling, increased supply of heavy oil, and reduced demand for power generation are negative factors. The overall supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,600 yuan/ton. It follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as reduced shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation and follow crude - oil fluctuations [11]. 3.2.5 LPG - On June 30, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton. The market is still cautious about geopolitical risks, but the supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change in the short term. The PG market is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12]. 3.2.6 PX - On June 30, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 874(6) dollars/ton. In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC+ production increase and concerns about global demand. Some domestic PX plants will be shut down for maintenance, and the market should focus on the implementation of device - change expectations [14]. 3.2.7 PTA - On June 30, the PTA spot price was 5,050(25) yuan/ton. This week, the crude - oil market may decline, and the support for PTA is weak. Although the supply of PTA is tight and the basis of July's supply is strong, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, so the PTA market is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - On June 30, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7,780(-170) yuan/ton. Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, the styrene price has corrected. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The market should be vigilant about the impact of short - squeezing events and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [15]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - On June 30, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level. The inventory in East China ports has dropped to the lowest in the same period in five years. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors should not short too aggressively [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - On June 30, the raw materials provided support, and the short - fiber futures remained stable. The short - fiber price follows the raw materials, and its own supply - demand situation is oscillating. The processing fee is expected to bottom out and rise [17]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - On June 30, the futures of polyester raw materials rose slightly, and the price of polyester bottle chips was mostly stable. The absolute price of bottle chips follows the raw materials, and the compression space of the processing fee is limited [18][20]. 3.2.12 Methanol - On June 30, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,780(-20) yuan/ton. With the easing of the Israel - Iran situation, the support for the methanol price has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the negative feedback from the downstream has emerged. The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.2.13 Urea - On June 30, 2025, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1,760(+0) and 1,790(-10) yuan/ton respectively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. The urea market is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in export quotas [22][23]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - On June 30, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7,300(0) yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in oil prices and the increase in supply, and the low downstream demand, the LLDPE 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - On June 30, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7,160(-20) yuan/ton. The cost is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window is limited. The PP market is expected to oscillate in the short term [26][27]. 3.2.16 PVC - The benchmark price of calcium - carbide - method PVC in East China was 4,860(+0) yuan/ton. Although the market risk preference has improved, the PVC supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the market should short on rallies [28]. 3.2.17 Caustic Soda - The 50% caustic - soda price in Shandong was 2,560(-40) yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as the decrease in electricity prices, the increase in production, and the weakening of demand, the caustic - soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost increases on production reduction [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the spreads (such as M1 - M2, 1 - 5 months, etc.) and basis of various energy and chemical products, as well as the changes in these data [31]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists different chemical products for basis and spread monitoring, specific content is not fully presented in the provided text.

Summary of Chemical Industry Inventory Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the chemical industry, specifically on inventory levels of various chemical products [1]. Key Points - Major products with increased inventory week-on-week include: - PA66 - Viscose [1] - Major products with decreased inventory week-on-week include: - Nylon - Epoxy Propane [1] - Inventory levels for specific products: - Aggregated MDI remains stable at 60,000 tons [1] - TDI decreased by 5.1% to 14,000 tons [1] - Epoxy Propane decreased by 10.5% to 29,100 tons [1] - Adipic Acid decreased by 1.0% to 19,900 tons [1] - Polyester Filament POY manufacturers increased inventory by 2.3% to 17.1 days [1] - Nylon manufacturers saw a decrease in inventory [1] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the fluctuations in inventory levels, indicating potential supply and demand dynamics within the chemical industry [1].