Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the production of alumina increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.481 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 4.3% to 604,000 tons, primarily due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain [2][3] - The average realized price for third-party sales of alumina decreased by 46.4% year-on-year to $341 per ton, while the average price for primary aluminum increased by 24.7% year-on-year to $3,749 per ton [3][9] - The company's total revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.449 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year [9][11] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - In Q4 2025, bauxite production was 9.4 million tons, with third-party bauxite shipments at 2.4 million tons, showing a 41.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The total alumina production for 2025 was 9.640 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, while the total primary aluminum production for 2025 was 2.319 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year [6][8] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to Alcoa was $226 million, a decrease of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [11][27] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $546 million, reflecting a significant increase due to rising aluminum prices and the absence of certain one-time charges from the previous quarter [12][20] Future Outlook - For 2026, the alumina business is expected to produce between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons, with aluminum production projected to be between 240,000 and 260,000 tons [23][24] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, including a $30 million negative impact on adjusted EBITDA due to routine maintenance and price declines in bauxite procurement agreements [23][24]