高盛闭门会-美国关键矿产战略和政策解读，关键瓶颈在电 力铝极度短缺 20260227 摘要 美国关键矿产政策转向国际合作，通过部长级会议等形式，强调"全面 市场方法"和"全供应链视角"，旨在与盟友及伙伴协同，保障美国工 业基础与国防体系安全供给。 VOLT 项目旨在通过公私合作建立关键矿产储备，企业预付款采购，贸 易机构管理，参考美国地质调查局清单筛选矿种。与国家国防储备和战 略石油储备相比，VOLT 更偏向私营部门主导的商业参与模式。 边境调节价格机制旨在阻止低价进口，将成本转嫁给下游买家，由美国 贸易代表办公室牵头谈判。关键在于避免需求萎缩，推动主要制造业经 济体实施相似机制，并确保监管框架不允许低标准产品绕道进入市场。 国防授权法案的 DEFY 条款限制从特定外国实体采购稀土永磁材料，国 防承包商需在 2027 年前满足要求。稀土元素与永磁材料仍是本届政府 的重点领域。 美国铝行业面临挑战，原铝产量仅能满足需求的 16.16%。即使密苏里 冶炼厂重启，仍将面临缺口。钢铁领域贸易政策可作为主要解决方案， 铝领域贸易政策只能作为部分解决方案，核心约束在能源。 Q&A 自 2025 年 6 月以来，在 232 ...

2026年2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。其中， 2025年中国粗钢产量96081.2万吨，同比下降4.4%；钢材产量144612.1万吨，同比增长3.1%。 | 表3 2025年规模以上工业主要产品产量及其增长速度[3] | | --- | | 产品名称 | 单位 | 沖量 | 比上年增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | રુો | 万吨 | 2215.8 | -0.1 | | 布 | 亿米 | 306.7 | 0.2 | | 化学纤维 | 万吨 | 8701.1 | 1 0 | | 成品糖 | 万吨 | 1621.0 | 9.0 | | 卷烟 | 亿支 | 24703 9 | 0.2 | | 彩色电视机 | 万台 | 20273.9 | -2.6 | | 家用申永箱 | 万台 | 10924.4 | 1.6 | | 品书感与中心四处 | Fe | 26697 5 | 07 | | 相钢 | 万吨 | 96081 2 | -4.4 | | 钢材(24) | 万吨 | 144612.1 | 3.1 | | 工程信息部品 | 7 ...

Company Developments - Century Aluminum has officially closed its idle smelter in Hawesville, Kentucky, with an annual capacity of 250,000 tons, selling it for $200 million to data center developer TeraWulf, which plans to convert it into a digital infrastructure park focused on high-performance computing and artificial intelligence facilities [1] - Century Aluminum has announced a partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium to construct a new primary aluminum plant in Oklahoma, USA, with an annual capacity of 750,000 tons and a total investment exceeding $5 billion, aiming to benefit from U.S. tariff policies, although there are short-term concerns regarding capital expenditures and aluminum price volatility [2] Financial Performance - According to the Q3 2025 financial report released on November 7, 2025, Century Aluminum's revenue increased by 17.3% year-over-year to $632.2 million, although adjusted earnings per share fell short of expectations; the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 to be between $170 million and $180 million, primarily supported by premiums on the London Metal Exchange [3] - As of February 2026, all participating rating agencies have given a buy recommendation for Century Aluminum [3]

业绩下滑源于氧化铝价格走低及挪威克朗汇率走强，但部分被原铝与氧化铝销量增长及原材料成本下降 所抵消。Hydro产生自由现金流46亿挪威克朗，全年调整后资本回报率（RoaCE）达10.2%。 2月13日（周五），挪威铝业生产商Norsk Hydro公布的季度核心利润超出市场预期，称强劲的原铝收益 和金属价格上涨抵消下游市场疲软的影响。 经调整的息税折旧及摊销前利润在10-12月期间升至55.9亿挪威克朗（约合5.8523亿美元），较上年同期 的77亿克朗有所下降。 根据分析师预测，市场平均预期其核心利润为52.3亿克朗。 由于欧盟准备对铝进口征收碳排放费用，Hydro面临着前景变化的局面。这一举措可能会有利于排放量 较低的金属产品，尽管全球铝供应量的增加以及生产成本的下降表明市场将更加平衡。 获取可再生能源仍是Hydro实现低碳铝战略及保持竞争力的关键。第四季度，Hydro与Hafslund签署两份 长期电力采购协议，覆盖2031至2040年期间NO3价格区域5.25太瓦时的电力供应，该区域涵盖Hydro Sunndal和Hydro H?yanger电解铝厂。依托可再生能源，Hydro在挪威的铝生产碳足迹可比全 ...

经济观察网世纪铝业(CENX.OQ)在2026年2月12日股价显著下跌，收盘报50.37美元，单日跌幅达 5.74%。当日开盘价为53.63美元，最高价触及54.00美元，最低价下探49.85美元，振幅为7.77%。成交额 约为2912万美元，换手率0.60%，量比为0.72。从市场环境看，当日铝板块整体下跌2.07%，美股三大指 数也集体收跌。 股价异动原因 合作项目引发短期担忧：2月11日，世纪铝业与阿联酋环球铝业(EGA)正式宣布合作，计划投资超50亿 美元在美国俄克拉荷马州建设年产75万吨的原铝工厂。尽管长期可能受益于美国关税政策，但市场短期 担忧巨额资本开支(世纪铝业持股40%)会加剧财务压力，合作公告后股价一度下跌8.4%。获利了结情 绪：合作消息公布前，股价近5个交易日累计上涨12.52%(2月6日至2月11日)，部分投资者选择在高位兑 现收益，加剧抛压。 行业板块情况 铝价波动风险：尽管美国中西部铝溢价受关税政策支撑处于高位，但伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝价近期波 动加剧(2月12日报3117美元/吨)。蒙特利尔银行等机构指出，铝价周期性回调可能影响企业短期利润。 大盘拖累：当日美股科技股及周期 ...

Group 1 - Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminum announced a partnership to build a 750,000-ton per year aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, with a total investment exceeding $5 billion, aimed at benefiting from U.S. tariff policies [1] - Following the announcement, the stock price initially dropped by 8.4%, closing at $51.96 on February 10, down 4.42% for the day, but saw a cumulative increase of 9.32% over the past five trading days, with a year-to-date gain of 32.62% [1] - Analysts from Montreal Bank highlighted the need to monitor project financing progress and aluminum price volatility risks [1] Group 2 - In the past week, Century Aluminum's stock exhibited significant volatility, with a single-day increase of 11.80% to $52.40 on February 6, followed by a further rise of 3.74% to $54.36 on February 9, before a 4.42% pullback to $51.96 on February 10 [2] - The latest stock price on February 11 was $53.48, reflecting a daily increase of 2.93%, with a cumulative gain of 12.52% over the last five trading days and a price fluctuation range of 21.75% [2] - The stock price drop of nearly 14% was influenced by the largest shareholder Glencore's reduction in holdings, with recent volatility partly attributed to profit-taking [2] Group 3 - Institutional outlook on Century Aluminum is positive, with five firms issuing buy or hold ratings in February 2026, setting a target average price of $59.75 [3] - Earnings forecasts indicate that adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 is expected to reach between $170 million and $180 million, primarily supported by premiums from the London Metal Exchange and Midwest aluminum premiums in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX.US) announced a partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build a new plant, leading to a decline in stock price due to market concerns regarding the project's short-term implications and funding dynamics [1] Recent Events - On January 27, 2026, Century Aluminum and EGA announced plans to construct a primary aluminum plant in Oklahoma with an annual production capacity of 750,000 tons. The total investment is expected to exceed $5 billion, with EGA holding 60% and Century Aluminum holding 40%. The project is set to commence construction by the end of 2026 and be operational before 2030. This collaboration aims to reduce U.S. dependence on aluminum imports and benefit from domestic aluminum premiums due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Century Aluminum's stock price dropped by 8.4% on the same day. Analysts from Montreal Bank noted that market concerns about high capital expenditures and cyclical risks in the aluminum industry, particularly amid uncertainties in tariff policies, contributed to this decline. While the partnership is expected to benefit capacity expansion in the long term, short-term risks related to financing and construction progress need to be monitored [3] Funding Situation - On November 15, 2025, the largest shareholder, Glencore, sold 9 million shares at $30.65 each, raising approximately $276 million. This sale led to a nearly 14% drop in stock price, interpreted by the market as a sign of concern regarding Century Aluminum's profitability, increasing selling pressure. As of February 10, 2026, the stock price was $51.96, down 4.42% for the day, but had increased by 9.32% over the past five trading days, with a year-to-date gain of 32.62%. The announcement of the partnership may have prompted some investors to take profits at high stock levels, resulting in a short-term pullback [4] Future Development - The partnership project is expected to increase Century Aluminum's equity capacity by 300,000 tons, combined with the full production plan of the Mt. Holly plant in June 2026, potentially doubling total capacity. The 50% aluminum import tariff in the U.S. and tax credits from the IRA act are expected to continue supporting domestic aluminum premiums. Attention should be paid to aluminum price fluctuations, the EU's CBAM carbon tariffs, and the progress of project financing [5]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）发布2026年1月按产地划分的金属库存月度报告（单位：吨）： | +111744 | S | 5 | nna in | S | 5 | S | 2 | C | U, JUV | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国台湾 | 0 | 0 | 9, 950 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9, 950 | | 泰国 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 80 | | 阿联酋 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 英国 | 0 | 0 | 11, 675 | 0 | 606 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12, 281 | | 美国 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | | 乌克兰 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | | 委内瑞拉 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 赞比亚 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 13.54% and significant trading activity, indicating investor interest and confidence in the company's growth potential [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Activity - On February 10, Tianshan Aluminum's stock rose by 2.06%, reaching 18.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 236 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.32%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 85.03 billion CNY [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 12.68 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 27.63% of purchases and 21.85% of sales [1]. - Over the past 60 days, the stock price has increased by 31.03% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion CNY, up by 8.31% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 7.94 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.84 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Tianshan Aluminum had 37,800 shareholders, a decrease of 23.85% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 31.32% to 109,224 shares [2]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 131 million shares, an increase of 18.54 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

2月5日，中国铝业跌5.06%，截至发稿，报12.76元/股，成交16.94亿元，换手率0.99%，总市值2188.97 亿元。 资料显示，中国铝业股份有限公司位于北京市海淀区西直门北大街62号，成立日期2001年9月10日，上 市日期2007年4月30日，公司主营业务涉及铝土矿、煤炭等资源的勘探开采,氧化铝、原铝和铝合金产品 生产、销售、技术研发,国际贸易,物流产业,火力及新能源发电等。主营业务收入构成为：销售商品 97.41%，其他业务收入1.56%，提供服务1.03%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 九泰久信量化（009043）成立日期2020年5月20日，最新规模1371.2万。今年以来收益8.61%，同类排名 1173/5566；近一年收益31.95%，同类排名2268/4285；成立以来收益19.39%。 九泰久信量化（009043）基金经理为刘开运。 截至发稿，刘开运累计任职时间10年208天，现任基金资产总规模4.03亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 109.04%， 任职期间最差基金回报-28.21%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信 ...