铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-6-27 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | | | 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析（铝） | 多 方 因 素 | 空 方 因 素 | | --- | --- | | 电 解 铝 产 量 总 体 波 动 不 大 | 需 求 表 现 有 走 弱 预 期 | | 美 指 数 走 弱 元 | 货 升 水 落 现 回 | | 交 易 所 库 存 持 续 走 低 | | 地缘政治风险缓和 当地时间6月23日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。特朗普发文时间为美国东部时间23 日18时，特朗普称，双方停火将于大约6小时后开始，也就是美国东部时间24日零时。 一名伊朗高级官员证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提 出的与以色列停火方案。当地时间6月24日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在内阁会议结束时，要求部长们不要对最近进展，即"特朗普宣布以伊同意全面 停火"发表评 ...

SHMET 网讯：根据S&P Global Commodity Insights下属Platts于6月26日的评估，第三季度进口至日本的 原铝报价为较伦敦金属交易所（LME）现货价升水108美元/吨，日本主要港口到岸价，较第二季度的 182美元/吨下跌40.66%。 第三季度铝升水报价的评估是基于5月30日至6月26日期间报告的9笔交易。所有交易均以108美元/吨的 升水价格成交，最低总交易量为每月14,000吨，适用于7月至9月装运的P1020/P1020A海运铝锭。 谈判期间听到的报价区间为日本到岸价130-145美元/吨，比第二季度最终敲定的182美元/吨低20-29%。 据市场参与者称，买家对第三季度铝升水的预期为105-115美元/吨。 市场参与者表示，建筑行业以及汽车行业的需求一直疲软。美国自4月2日起对汽车加征25%的关税，影 响了汽车行业的需求。一些市场参与者表示，他们预计未来几个月的需求将因关税而进一步下降。 与此同时，美国自6月4日起将铝关税从25%上调至50%，导致对美出口兴趣下降，欧洲和亚洲整体供应 过剩。市场反馈显示，考虑到50%的关税，运往美国的货物的重置成本约为比LME现货溢价每 ...

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry in China is experiencing reasonable growth, with fixed asset investment increasing by over 10% [1][5] - In May, the industrial added value of the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 7.0% from January to May [1][4] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals reached 6.827 million tons in May, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [4] Industry Performance - The added value of the non-ferrous metal mining sector grew by 5.1% in May, while the smelting and rolling processing sector saw an 8.1% increase [1] - From January to May, the mining sector's growth was 6.3%, slightly narrowing from the previous month, while the smelting and rolling sector's growth was 7.1%, expanding by 0.2 percentage points [1] Production Data - The production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in May was 3.828 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% increase [4] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 33.404 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] Investment Trends - Nationally, fixed asset investment in the industrial sector grew by 11.6%, while investment in the non-ferrous metal industry surged by 19.9%, exceeding the national average by 8.3 percentage points [5][6] - Investment in the non-ferrous metal mining sector increased by 44.0%, and the smelting and rolling processing sector saw a 14.3% rise [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's performance is improving, with significant share buybacks from its controlling shareholder and positive financial results reported for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 was 12.4 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 85.38% [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 19.26%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points compared to the previous year, outperforming industry benchmarks for three consecutive years [6][5]. - The debt-to-asset ratio was 48.10%, marking the lowest level in the past decade [6]. Share Buyback Activity - As of May 28, the controlling shareholder, China Aluminum Group, and its concerted parties have cumulatively bought back 192 million shares, amounting to approximately 1.007 billion yuan [2][3]. - This buyback represents 1.12% of the company's total issued share capital, achieving the lower limit of their planned buyback amount [2][3]. Market Conditions - The domestic aluminum market continues to grow, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest aluminum producer and consumer for 23 consecutive years [5]. - In 2024, domestic alumina prices ranged from 3,156 yuan/ton to 5,780 yuan/ton, with an average price of 4,084 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [5]. - International alumina prices also saw significant increases, with an average price of 502 USD/ton, up 46% year-on-year [5]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on structural adjustments and enhancing its industrial development advantages [7]. - China Aluminum is advancing its exploration and development of bauxite resources, with a new resource addition of 73.55 million tons in the year [7]. - The company is implementing multiple projects in clean energy and aluminum production, with a notable 45.5% of its electrolytic aluminum production utilizing clean energy [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of Guinea's mining policy changes on the alumina market, particularly the withdrawal of mining licenses, which raises concerns about reduced supply and increased production costs for alumina [1][2][4] - Guinea's government has declared several mining rights, including bauxite, iron ore, and gold, as strategic reserve areas, which means these resources will not be available for regular commercial mining in the short term [2][3] - In April 2025, China's alumina imports reached a record high of 20.68 million tons, with Guinea being the largest supplier, accounting for 16.73 million tons, reflecting a 25.67% month-on-month increase and a 45.44% year-on-year increase [3][4] Group 2 - The recent disruptions in Guinea's mining sector are expected to support alumina prices in the short term due to supply concerns, although the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential overcapacity in the alumina industry [6][8] - Analysts suggest that if the situation in Guinea does not stabilize, the ongoing supply disruptions could lead to further price increases for alumina, with each $1 increase in bauxite prices potentially raising alumina costs by 30 CNY per ton [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production capacities and the impact of Guinea's mining policies on alumina and aluminum prices, as any prolonged supply issues could significantly affect the industry [7][8]

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月22日） 1. 据Mysteel，河钢集团5月硅锰最新价5850元/吨，首轮询盘5700元/吨，4月硅锰定价5950元/吨，2024 年5月定价8000元/吨。 2. 印尼棕榈油协会（GAPKI）：将毛棕榈油（CPO）出口专项税从7.5%提高到10%，将削弱印尼棕榈油 产品在全球市场上的竞争力。 6. 全球铜矿巨头Antofagasta启动与中国和日本冶炼厂的年中谈判。消息人士透露，由于铜精矿供应紧 张，冶炼厂或要求2025年下半年采用"0美元"加工费（TC/RCs）。 7. 据几内亚媒体报道，在2025年5月20日周二晚间通过国家电视台宣读的法令中，过渡当局决定将涉及 铝土矿、铁矿、金矿、钻石和石墨的多个矿业权证划定为战略储备区。 8. 加拿大Ivanhoe Mines周二表示，由于地震活动，公司已暂停刚果（金）Kakula铜矿地下开采作业。在 经历了一周的震动后，于周日暂停了地下作业。 9. 据Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计6月停产检修1个厂，检修时长4个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产 量约1500吨。 10. 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，20 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月21日） 1. 据Mysteel，5月河钢75B硅铁招标定价5800元/吨，4月定价5950元/吨，较上轮下降150元/吨，询盘价 5700元/吨。 2. 截至5月19日，中国47港进口铁矿石库存总量14627.63万吨，较上周一下降258.25万吨。 3. 卫星数据显示，2024年5月12日-5月18日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1376.3 万吨，环比上升69.6万吨。 5. 饲料行业信息网：通关的大豆数量增多，运输至工厂的大豆继续增加，不少工厂将能彻底缓解大豆短 缺问题，供应将继续增加。 6. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）上调巴西5月大豆出口预期至1452万吨，此前预期为1427万吨。 7. 海关总署数据显示，2025年1-4月，中国累计进口铝土矿6777万吨，同比增加34.3%。分国别看，自几 内亚累计进口铝土矿5312万吨，占进口总量的78.38%，同比增加42.2%。 8. 国际铝业协会（IAI）：2025年4月份全球原铝产量为603.3万吨，去年同期为590.1万吨。 9. 据船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚5月1-20日棕榈油 ...

期货热点追踪 伦铝注册仓单暴涨，期铝价格下跌，中国原铝产量上升，市场将何去何从？ 相关链接 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月19日） 1. 伦敦金属交易所（LME）拟设定仓位限制以遏制巨额持仓。 2. 阿联酋环球铝业：推进在美国建设首个全新原铝生产厂的计划。 3. 高盛：持续谨慎看待油价前景 伊朗供应增加可能性带来压力。 4. 伊朗外长：无论是否达成协议 伊朗的铀浓缩活动都将继续。 5. 伊朗总统向西方国家预示中断石油供应的后果——西方国家将陷入瘫痪。 6. 土耳其在黑海发现价值300亿美元的天然气。 7. 阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司首席执行官：阿联酋和美国计划到2035年在能源领域投资4400亿美元。 8. 据贸易消息人士引述初步装载计划草案：安哥拉将在七月装载33船原油（六月份为34船）。 ...

阿联酋环球铝业：推进在美国建设首个全新原铝生产厂的计划。 ...