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美日长端国债承压助推黄金反弹
Group 1 - Recent significant pullback in credit risk assets such as long-term US and Japanese government bonds, leading to a rise in decentralized safe-haven asset gold [1][2] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, exacerbating the situation for dollar assets and contributing to a surge in gold prices, which exceeded $3300 per ounce by May 21 [1][5] - The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching 99.6, highlighting the challenges faced by fiat currencies in the current economic climate [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over the sustainability of US and Japanese debt have led to persistently high yields on government bonds, with US 20-year and 30-year bond yields surpassing 5% as of May 21 [2][3] - Japan's long-term bond yields have also risen significantly, with 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year yields increasing by 39.7 basis points, 72 basis points, and 101.2 basis points respectively since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] Group 3 - The recent downturn in US and Japanese bond markets is linked to weak auction results, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012, and the US 20-year bond auction also showing weak demand [4] - Strong demand for gold is evident, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $11 billion in April, driven largely by significant inflows from Asia [4][5] Group 4 - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there has been a notable increase in gold holdings, with COMEX gold inventory rising by 30,648.47 troy ounces and SPDR gold ETF holdings increasing by 36,869.5 troy ounces [5] - China's gold imports reached a new high of 127.5 metric tons in April, reflecting a 73% month-on-month increase, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail demand [5]