Group 1 - Recent significant pullback in credit risk assets such as long-term US and Japanese government bonds, leading to a rise in decentralized safe-haven asset gold [1][2] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, exacerbating the situation for dollar assets and contributing to a surge in gold prices, which exceeded $3300 per ounce by May 21 [1][5] - The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching 99.6, highlighting the challenges faced by fiat currencies in the current economic climate [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over the sustainability of US and Japanese debt have led to persistently high yields on government bonds, with US 20-year and 30-year bond yields surpassing 5% as of May 21 [2][3] - Japan's long-term bond yields have also risen significantly, with 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year yields increasing by 39.7 basis points, 72 basis points, and 101.2 basis points respectively since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] Group 3 - The recent downturn in US and Japanese bond markets is linked to weak auction results, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012, and the US 20-year bond auction also showing weak demand [4] - Strong demand for gold is evident, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $11 billion in April, driven largely by significant inflows from Asia [4][5] Group 4 - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there has been a notable increase in gold holdings, with COMEX gold inventory rising by 30,648.47 troy ounces and SPDR gold ETF holdings increasing by 36,869.5 troy ounces [5] - China's gold imports reached a new high of 127.5 metric tons in April, reflecting a 73% month-on-month increase, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the changing international order and its implications for gold investment, highlighting the need to follow major trends while being cautious of short-term fluctuations [1][16]. Group 1: International Order and Gold Investment - The previous international order was centered around the United States, which provided global security and public goods [3]. - The transition to a "credit currency" era has seen the dollar maintain its status as the global hard currency, despite the detachment from gold [3]. - Since 2018, the world has been entering a "once-in-a-century change," with the dollar's dominance being challenged [3][16]. Group 2: Economic Indicators in the U.S. - The structure of U.S. household income has shifted from a "spindle" shape (predominantly middle-income) to a "dumbbell" shape, indicating increasing income inequality [5]. - U.S. government debt has reached historically high levels, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - The share of the dollar in official reserves has been declining, indicating a potential shift in global currency dynamics [9]. Group 3: Future Economic Policies - The potential re-election of Trump in 2025 could lead to significant economic policy changes, including austerity measures and increased tariffs, particularly targeting countries with large trade deficits like China [11][12]. - Trump's administration may face substantial challenges in implementing these policies due to internal and external resistance [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Gold Valuation - Current market conditions show a divergence from historical trends, with simultaneous declines in the dollar, U.S. bonds, and equities, which is atypical [14][15]. - The traditional valuation framework for gold has been disrupted, necessitating a wait for a new order to emerge before establishing a new valuation system [16]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "following the major trend while countering short-term fluctuations" in their gold investment approach [17][18].