近期信用类避险资产如长端美国国债和日本国债大幅回调，美元指数一度下跌至100以下，信用类避险 资产大幅回调推升了去中心化避险资产黄金的上涨。5月，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质进展，市场风险 偏好快速降低，伦敦金现货价格于5月15日跌至3191.05美元/盎司。5月16日，三大评级机构之一的穆迪 下调了美国的信用评级，从Aaa下调至Aa1，让处于美国所谓"对等关税"阴影笼罩下的美元资产再度雪 上加霜，黄金再度大幅上涨。截至5月21日，伦敦金现货价格再度突破3300美元/盎司。此外，中美贸易 谈判取得实质进展之后，美元一度上升到101.814（5月12日），此后再度下降，5月21日美元指数下破 100至99.6。黄金受青睐而美元走弱，凸显了信用货币时代的窘境。 强劲的黄金需求和活跃的交易量是近期推升黄金价格的主要力量。4月全球实物黄金ETF流入约110亿美 元（数据来自世界黄金协会），其中亚洲大幅流入73亿美元，为历史最高值；北美地区流入45亿美元， 而欧洲4月流出约8.07亿美元，其他地区ETF流入2.13吨（主要是澳大利亚和南非）。此外，4月全球黄 金市场日均交易额约4410亿美元，较3月增长48%；而LBMA场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the changing international order and its implications for gold investment, highlighting the need to follow major trends while being cautious of short-term fluctuations [1][16]. Group 1: International Order and Gold Investment - The previous international order was centered around the United States, which provided global security and public goods [3]. - The transition to a "credit currency" era has seen the dollar maintain its status as the global hard currency, despite the detachment from gold [3]. - Since 2018, the world has been entering a "once-in-a-century change," with the dollar's dominance being challenged [3][16]. Group 2: Economic Indicators in the U.S. - The structure of U.S. household income has shifted from a "spindle" shape (predominantly middle-income) to a "dumbbell" shape, indicating increasing income inequality [5]. - U.S. government debt has reached historically high levels, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - The share of the dollar in official reserves has been declining, indicating a potential shift in global currency dynamics [9]. Group 3: Future Economic Policies - The potential re-election of Trump in 2025 could lead to significant economic policy changes, including austerity measures and increased tariffs, particularly targeting countries with large trade deficits like China [11][12]. - Trump's administration may face substantial challenges in implementing these policies due to internal and external resistance [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Gold Valuation - Current market conditions show a divergence from historical trends, with simultaneous declines in the dollar, U.S. bonds, and equities, which is atypical [14][15]. - The traditional valuation framework for gold has been disrupted, necessitating a wait for a new order to emerge before establishing a new valuation system [16]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "following the major trend while countering short-term fluctuations" in their gold investment approach [17][18].