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对二甲苯:月差正套,加工费扩张,PTA:需求预期好转,多PTA空MEG,MEG:多PTA空MEG
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 06:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX**: Short - term sideways market, engage in calendar spread positive arbitrage; go long on PX and short on SC, go long on PX and short on EB. Cost - end factors like eased international trade relations and rebounding crude oil support PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and increased operating rates drive up the valuation of the aromatic hydrocarbon - polyester chain [7]. - **PTA**: Eased international trade relations push up valuation through cost factors. Reduce positions in the strategy of going long on PTA and short on SC, hold the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. With the possible loosening of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and high polyester operating rates, the market trend is short - term strong [8]. - **MEG**: Sideways market, implement the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply continues to increase. Although demand expectation improves and de - stocking efforts increase in the second quarter, maintain basis positive arbitrage operations [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price Data**: On May 8, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC closed at 6404, 4546, 4222, 6290, and 3406 respectively, with daily changes of 1.8%, 1.8%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and 0.2%. The monthly spreads, varietal spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On May 8, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 97724, 10389, 2587, 894, and 4644000 respectively, with daily changes of - 1254, 200, unchanged, - 417, and unchanged [3]. **Market Overview** - **PX**: On May 8, PX price rose, with the valuation at 778 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars from the previous day. The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at 543 dollars/ton CFR [5]. - **PTA**: Some PTA plants in mainland China had planned shutdowns and restarts. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 70.3% and was expected to rise above 73% on Friday. A 150 - million - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, was scheduled for maintenance in early June [5]. - **MEG**: As of May 8, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.99% (a 0.56% increase from the previous period), and a 12 - million - ton/year MEG plant in South Korea and a 10 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - made MEG plant in Shaanxi restarted [5][6]. - **Polyester**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, with the overall theoretical operating rate at around 72% by Thursday. Since May 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China was revised up to 8739 million tons, and the polyester operating rate increased recently. The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fiber on May 8 were weak [6]. - **Weaving**: After the May Day holiday, the restart of production was better in texturing than in weaving. Due to weak terminal orders, the operating rate was under pressure. In foreign trade, some US orders resumed shipment, and there were new orders from North Africa, Russia, and Europe. In domestic sales, the new order intake declined after the holiday [7]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1 [9].