1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt strategies of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on PX and short on EB. Due to the maintenance of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the reduced load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, supply decreases, leading to a significant jump in PXN [7]. - PTA: Implement a positive spread strategy. In terms of supply - demand, PTA's supply decreases while demand increases, continuing the de - stocking pattern [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, and exit the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct positive spread operations on basis and calendar spread. Due to the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene unit, the maintenance of its 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol unit is advanced, expected to last for one month. Supply is expected to decrease by 150,000 tons per month, and the de - stocking intensity from May to June will increase. On the demand side, after the tariff reduction, the operating rate of MEG's downstream polyester factories will increase again due to the recovery of terminal orders, with the expected high of the operating rate raised to 95% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Changes**: On May 13, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main contract closing prices were 6708, 4750, 4349, 6496, and 3541 respectively, with daily changes of 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09's values on May 13 were 148, 148, 40, 26, and - 609 respectively, with daily changes of 66, 22, 17, 4, and - 195 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: For PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07's processing margin on the futures market, and PTA09 - LU09, their values on May 13 were 390, 401, - 1664, 840, and 1314 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 7, - 22, 6, and 35 [1]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 13, PX, PTA, MEG, and PF's basis were 312, 195, 125, and - 96 respectively; PX - naphtha spread was 271. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC's warehouse receipts were 81164, 11755, 2727, 1810, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 7590, 100, 140, 916, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 13, Asian PX prices soared. Platts evaluated the daily average of Asian PX to increase by 60.67 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton CFR Unv1/China. The market sentiment was boosted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. An East - China 1.6 - million - ton PX unit reduced its load to 60% operation, expected to last 7 - 10 days, and another large PX factory in East China reduced its load due to catalyst replacement in the previous process [3]. - **PTA Market**: On May 13, PTA futures fluctuated upward. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, mainly among traders, with more bids from polyester factories, and the spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers offered June's goods [5]. - **MEG Market**: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG unit restarted. Two MEG units with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons/year temporarily shut down, and a 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol enterprise's one line started maintenance on May 12 [5]. - **Polyester Market**: The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58% as of 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament showed high - low differentiation, with an estimated average of over 50% as of 3:30 pm. On May 12, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament had a late - day surge, with an estimated average of over 510% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX**: Short - term sideways market, engage in calendar spread positive arbitrage; go long on PX and short on SC, go long on PX and short on EB. Cost - end factors like eased international trade relations and rebounding crude oil support PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and increased operating rates drive up the valuation of the aromatic hydrocarbon - polyester chain [7]. - **PTA**: Eased international trade relations push up valuation through cost factors. Reduce positions in the strategy of going long on PTA and short on SC, hold the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. With the possible loosening of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and high polyester operating rates, the market trend is short - term strong [8]. - **MEG**: Sideways market, implement the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply continues to increase. Although demand expectation improves and de - stocking efforts increase in the second quarter, maintain basis positive arbitrage operations [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price Data**: On May 8, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC closed at 6404, 4546, 4222, 6290, and 3406 respectively, with daily changes of 1.8%, 1.8%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and 0.2%. The monthly spreads, varietal spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On May 8, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 97724, 10389, 2587, 894, and 4644000 respectively, with daily changes of - 1254, 200, unchanged, - 417, and unchanged [3]. **Market Overview** - **PX**: On May 8, PX price rose, with the valuation at 778 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars from the previous day. The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at 543 dollars/ton CFR [5]. - **PTA**: Some PTA plants in mainland China had planned shutdowns and restarts. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 70.3% and was expected to rise above 73% on Friday. A 150 - million - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, was scheduled for maintenance in early June [5]. - **MEG**: As of May 8, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.99% (a 0.56% increase from the previous period), and a 12 - million - ton/year MEG plant in South Korea and a 10 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - made MEG plant in Shaanxi restarted [5][6]. - **Polyester**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, with the overall theoretical operating rate at around 72% by Thursday. Since May 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China was revised up to 8739 million tons, and the polyester operating rate increased recently. The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fiber on May 8 were weak [6]. - **Weaving**: After the May Day holiday, the restart of production was better in texturing than in weaving. Due to weak terminal orders, the operating rate was under pressure. In foreign trade, some US orders resumed shipment, and there were new orders from North Africa, Russia, and Europe. In domestic sales, the new order intake declined after the holiday [7]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each commodity has its own market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trend, and corresponding trading suggestions are given based on these factors [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Trading Strategies**: PX for month - spread positive arbitrage and processing fee expansion; for PTA, with improved demand expectations, go long on PTA and short on MEG; for MEG, the same strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [4][7]. - **Market Conditions**: PX price increased on May 8; PTA load decreased this week but is expected to rebound, and a PTA device in Taiwan is planned for maintenance in early June; MEG supply continued to increase, with coal - based and oil - based devices having new changes, and some overseas devices restarted [7][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as closing prices, month - spreads, and basis differences of PX, PTA, and MEG changed daily [8]. 3.2 Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: In April, the prices of main raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black dropped significantly, and the tire raw material cost decreased. The domestic terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the sales of factories and agents slowed down [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of rubber changed daily [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The cost side of butadiene has support, and the demand for synthetic rubber has increased. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises has decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of synthetic rubber changed daily [20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Trading Strategy**: Crude oil rebounded, and inventory slightly accumulated [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This week, the domestic asphalt weekly output increased, and the factory and social inventories both increased slightly [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of asphalt changed daily [23]. 3.5 LLDPE - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The LLDPE market price partially declined, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Considering factors such as new production capacity and weak demand, the price trend still has pressure [35][36]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of LLDPE changed daily [35]. 3.6 PP - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price slightly declined, and the trading was average [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly, the futures had limited guidance on the spot market, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of PP changed daily [40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The caustic soda price rebounded due to short - term downstream replenishment, but considering the off - season demand in the second quarter, it is necessary to compress profits and reduce supply to balance supply and demand [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of caustic soda changed daily [43]. 3.8 Pulp - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This cycle, the pulp price continued to be weak, with pessimistic sentiment, abundant supply, and weak demand [49]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of pulp changed daily [48]. 3.9 Glass - **Trading Strategy**: The original sheet price was stable [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic float glass original sheet price rose and fell in different regions, and the trading atmosphere was not strong [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of glass changed daily [52]. 3.10 Methanol - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillating under pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market mainly declined, with high production supply and expected increase in import supply. The port inventory slightly accumulated, and in the medium term, it entered a weak pattern [58]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of methanol changed daily [56]. 3.11 Urea - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to run strongly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The urea enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the futures price was expected to oscillate with support due to the release of demand and increased speculation [62]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of urea changed daily [61]. 3.12 Styrene - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene dropped, and the price of styrene is expected to be weak. The supply of pure benzene increased, demand decreased, and the downstream terminal orders of styrene decreased [65]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of styrene changed daily [64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Trading Strategy**: The spot market changed little [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with device operations having minor changes, and downstream demand remaining cautious [67]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of soda ash changed daily [67]. 3.14 LPG - **Trading Strategy**: With intensified crude oil fluctuations, short - term wide - range oscillation [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The Saudi CP expectations for propane and butane increased on May 7, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased this week [69][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of LPG changed daily [69]. 3.15 PVC - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC fundamentals have high supply and uncertain demand. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure periodically [81]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and spot prices of PVC changed daily [80]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic fuel oil continued to rebound, and the low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the short term, with the high - low sulfur spread of the overseas market temporarily stabilizing [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot prices of fuel oil in overseas markets had narrow - range adjustments [85]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed daily [85]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trading Strategy**: Low - level oscillation, and lightly hold the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The freight rates of European and US - West routes had different trends, and the prices of current - period European - line freight had different quotes [88]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and freight rate indices of the container freight index (European line) changed daily [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term range - bound, recommend calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PX against SC and EB [6] - PTA: Calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PTA against SC. Consider shorting on rallies [7] - MEG: Weak unilateral trend, long PTA against MEG. Avoid chasing high in calendar spreads [7] 2. Core Views - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and supply disruptions support the rise in PX prices. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and the rebound of crude oil also boost the valuation of the aromatics - polyester chain [4][6] - PTA is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, continuing to draw down inventories. High processing fees delay some device maintenance, so the unilateral trend is hard to turn strongly upward [7] - The supply of MEG will continue to increase. Coal - based and oil - based production will see more restarts, and imports are high, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 7, 2025, PX closed at 6288, PTA at 4466, MEG at 4199, PF at 6200, and SC at 3399, with daily changes of 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.7%, 1.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1) was 36 on May 7, with a daily change of 40; PTA(6 - 9) was 74, with a daily change of - 12; MEG (9 - 1) was - 22, with a daily change of - 5; PF(7 - 8) was 16, with a daily change of - 14; PX - EB09 was - 506, with a daily change of 54 [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 379 on May 7, with a daily change of 1; PTA09 - MEG09 was 267, with a daily change of 35; PTA09 - PF09 was - 1644, with a daily change of - 8; PF07盘面加工费 was 896, with a daily change of 2; PTA09 - LU09 was 1147, with a daily change of 53 [2] - **Basis and Other Spreads**: PX basis was 83 on May 7, with a daily change of 5; PTA basis was 110, with a daily change of - 10; MEG basis was 50, with a daily change of - 3; PF basis was 20, with a daily change of 28; PX - naphtha spread was 206, with a daily change of 12 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA warehouse receipts were 98978 on May 7, with a daily change of - 3644; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 10189, with a daily change of 5239; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 2587, with a daily change of - 6; PX warehouse receipts were 1311; SC warehouse receipts were 4644000 [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On May 7, Asian PX prices rose significantly. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and a supply disruption at Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton/year PX production line in Tokuyama supported the price. The Platts - assessed average daily price of Asian PX increased by $19.67/ton to $767.67/ton CFR Unv1/China [4] - **PTA**: On May 7, the spot price of PTA rose to 4565 yuan/ton. A 200,000 - ton IPA device in Taiwan, China, was shut down for maintenance, a 300 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting, and a 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China started to shut down on May 7 [5] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance on May 14 for about a week. On May 6, the MEG shipments from a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4640 tons, and those from two major warehouses in Taicang were about 2670 tons [6] - **Polyester**: On May 7, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 127% in Fujian. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was highly differentiated, with an average of over 60% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. The market trends are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [4][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In the short - term, it's a volatile market with a positive spread between different contract months. Long PX and short SC, or long PX and short EB are recommended strategies. Cost - wise, geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand drives up the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [15]. - **PTA**: A positive spread between different contract months is recommended, along with long PTA and short SC. In terms of supply - demand, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. However, high processing fees lead to postponed maintenance of some devices, so a short - on - rallies strategy is suggested [15]. - **MEG**: It has a weak unilateral trend. Long PTA and short MEG is recommended. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase, with easier restarts of coal - based and oil - based devices and sufficient imported sources, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [16]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. Its futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have changed, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The semi - steel tire industry faces production and sales pressure, while the full - steel tire industry maintains flexible production scheduling [17][18][20]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - With the rebound of crude oil, the synthetic rubber market has support for sideways movement. The cost of butadiene is stable, and the demand for butadiene from the synthetic rubber end increases. Although the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are neutral, the low valuation provides support [21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to be strong and volatile due to the rebound of oil prices. The trading volume and positions of asphalt futures have changed, and the basis has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt enterprises has decreased, factory inventories have decreased slightly, and social inventories have increased slightly [24][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a weak trend. The market price continues to fall, affected by factors such as the trade war, new production capacity, low maintenance volume, and weak demand [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP price has a slight decline, but the low - price transactions are good. The domestic PP market has a slight decline, with weak downstream demand and general trading sentiment [39][40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term but will face pressure later. After the May Day holiday, the price has rebounded, but in the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand. The supply may be affected by the profit situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [42][44]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The spot price of pulp has declined, the futures price has weakened, and the downstream demand is weak [46][48]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol is under pressure and volatile. The spot price has declined, the port inventory has increased significantly, and in the medium - term, it is in a weak pattern of high production, high imports, high profits, and gradual inventory accumulation [50][53]. 3.10 Urea - The support at the lower level of urea has increased. The futures price has risen, and the production enterprises' inventory is expected to decline. The demand for top - dressing in Northeast China and summer fertilizers in Central China is being released, and the speculative behavior of traders has increased [55][57]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile. During the May Day holiday, crude oil and pure benzene prices have fallen. The supply of pure benzene increases while demand decreases, and the downstream negative feedback will gradually be transmitted to the styrene link [59][60]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and volatile, with some enterprises reducing production, and the downstream demand is tepid [62][63]. 3.13 LPG - For LPG, the cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened month - on - month. The futures price has changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of related industries such as PDH have declined [65][72]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is expected to be weak and volatile. After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with high supply, increased inventory, and weak expected demand [75][77]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a weak opening during the day and is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has significantly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has temporarily stabilized [80]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a low - level sideways movement, and a light - position reverse spread strategy between October and December contracts is recommended. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in relevant indices have changed, and the real - time freight rates of different carriers also vary [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend - strength ratings for individual commodities: - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, PP, methanol, urea, LPG, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, and bottle - chip trend strengths are rated 0 (neutral) [10][11][13][17][20][21][30][39][56][60][64][74][80][87][89][91] - LLDPE,烧碱,苯乙烯, PVC trend strengths are rated - 1 (weakly bearish) [35][46][65][85] - 纯碱 trend strength is rated 1 (weakly bullish) [72] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including market fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies. It considers factors such as supply - demand relationships, plant maintenance, trade policies, and cost changes to evaluate the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Low processing fees lead to more overseas plant maintenance, and Asian PX operating rate drops to 68.6%. May is a de - stocking period, and new plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with processing fees likely to expand. Strategy: long PX short SC [10] - **PTA**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Sino - US tariff easing improves terminal demand expectations, and polyester sales improve. However, PTA and PX plant maintenance is concentrated, and the basis and spread are at a high level. Strategy: long PTA short MEG, avoid chasing the basis and spread [11] - **MEG**: Long PTA short MEG. The number of warehouse receipts is small, and there may be a positive spread arbitrage in the delivery month. Pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread for the far - month contracts [11] Rubber - It is expected to trade sideways. The trading volume and open interest of rubber futures decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable [12][13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - It will oscillate in a pattern with limited drivers. The cost of butadiene is expected to support the price, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase. The demand for synthetic rubber has increased, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a neutral impact on synthetic rubber [17][18][20] Asphalt - De - stocking continues, and crude oil prices decline slightly. The weekly production of domestic asphalt decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. The trend is neutral [21][30][31] LLDPE - Short - term oscillation, long - term pressure. Trade wars and new capacity additions bring supply - demand imbalances, and the demand for downstream products is weak. Strategy: bearish on polyethylene profit [32][33][34] PP - Prices oscillate, and trading volume is average. The increase in PP futures has a limited impact on the spot market, and downstream pre - holiday stocking has ended. The trend is neutral [38][39] 烧碱 - The medium - term trend is weak. Trade wars and seasonal factors affect demand, and the supply side has high operating rates. Strategy: short 06 and 07 contracts, 6 - 9 reverse spread [41][43][44] Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The price of paper pulp futures decreased, and the market is divided. The port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is bearish. Strategy: pay attention to port de - stocking and South American policies [47][48][49] Logs - Weakly oscillate. The trading volume and open interest of log futures decreased, and the expected arrival of coniferous logs decreased. The trend is neutral [51][53][55] Methanol - Oscillate. The spot price of methanol is weak, and the port inventory decreased last week. Geopolitical issues and MTO operating rates affect the medium - term trend [56][57][59] Urea - Factories promote sales before the holiday, and trading volume improves. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement. The inventory of urea enterprises increased, and the futures price rebounded after the spot price stabilized [62][63][64] Styrene - Weakly oscillate. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand decreases. The downstream demand for styrene has resilience, but the terminal default risk is increasing [65][66][69] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The operation of soda ash plants is stable, and downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [70][72] LPG - As the delivery approaches, the structure continues to strengthen. The prices of LPG futures increased, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased. The trend is neutral [74][80][81] PVC - Weakly oscillate. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is limited. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term [84][85] Fuel Oil - Weakly oscillate, and short - term fluctuations narrow. Low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rebounds slightly [87] Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to rebound following raw materials. For bottle - chip, short the processing fees on rallies. The trading volume of short - fiber futures increased, and the sales of polyester bottle - chip plants improved [89][90]