【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。基本面上，业者入市积极性回升,提振整体交投气氛。企业库存持续低位, 报盘窄幅探涨为主。竞拍溢价幅度扩大，高端放量亦有增加，带动成交重心走高。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，节后市场宏观面回暖，业者心态向好，叠加成本支撑 增强、市场流通货源缩减等因素，场内成交氛围明显升温。聚丙烯方面，石化厂价稳中上调对现货市场货源成 本形成支撑,叠加中上游企业交付前期预售货源,市场现货流通压力暂可控,中间商报盘编暖调整为主。但下 游工厂心态谨慎,市场成交侧重商谈。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 纯苯期货主力合约震荡调整,华东现货价格小幅反弹。进口量高位,港口高库存持续压制市场;加氢苯产量提 升，供应有所回升，下游苯乙烯降负。短期纯苯受油价犹动;上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正 套。 | /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月06日 | | 尿素 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to have a short - term rebound due to a decline in short - term device operation rates and a tight - balance situation, but remains weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight - supply - demand balance, with concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend but limited downside space [2][10][11] Content Summary by Categories Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures prices fell. The PX11 - 1 and PTA11 - 1 month - spreads increased, the MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 month - spreads decreased, and the PF11 - 12 month - spread remained unchanged [4] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha MOPJ spot prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent spot prices fell. PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fees decreased, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [4] Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 10, Asian PX prices rose, supported by rising crude oil prices and concerns about supply shortages. The PX supply remains tight, and downstream polyester activities in China are strong [5][8] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,625 yuan/ton, with mainstream basis at 01 - 63 [8] - **MEG**: The MEG inner - market fluctuated slightly, with the current spot basis at a premium of 116 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [8] - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved locally, with an estimated average sales volume of about 90%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers also improved, with an average sales volume of 54% [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is 0 [10] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, there may be a rebound. In the long - term, it is weak in the fourth quarter. Suggestions include buying on dips (range: 6,590 - 6,780), 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, and 01/05 long PX short PTA [10] - **PTA**: It is in a tight - supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future [10] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Suggest buying on dips [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - PX, PTA follow cost fluctuations; MEG has low inventory, and it's advisable to take long - short spreads when the price difference is low. Rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to be strong in a volatile market; asphalt will fluctuate within a range. Caustic soda has strong demand support and there are still expectations for the peak season. Pulp is expected to be strong in a volatile market; glass prices are stable. Methanol and urea will run in a short - term volatile state; styrene will be weak and volatile. Soda ash has little change in the spot market; LPG has effective cost support and may rebound in the short term. Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak. Short - fiber will be in a short - term volatile market; bottle - chip will be volatile in the short term, with a strategy of going long on PR and short on PF. Offset printing paper will run in a volatile state; pure benzene will be weak and volatile [2][11][12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6742，涨跌幅26；PTA主力昨日收盘价4714，涨跌幅0.17%；MEG主力昨日收盘价4372，涨跌幅0.48%。PX9 - 1昨日收盘价134，前日收盘价98；PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价66，前日收盘价50；MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价17，前日收盘价2 [5]. - **Market News**: An East China refinery reduced its PX load due to a fault; crude oil futures weakened on July 17. PTA device load increased to 79.7% by Thursday; MEG overall start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% as of July 17, with a decline of 1.37% compared to the previous period. A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement [5][6][9]. - **View and Suggestion**: The market is concerned about the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. PX supply is still tight. Avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. Pay attention to the compression of long - term PXN positions. PTA should also avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. For MEG, it's expected to be strong in a volatile market, and take long - short spreads when the price difference is low [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the night - session closing price was 14,885 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The trading volume was 333,832 lots, an increase of 99,586 lots; the open interest was 151,500 lots, an increase of 2,850 lots [15]. - **Industry News**: Rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has intensified short - term supply disruptions, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has risen significantly. In May 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world were 149,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 11.22%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 732,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the trading volume was 69,387 lots, an increase of 11,938 lots; the open interest was 18,411 lots, a decrease of 2,292 lots [18]. - **Industry News**: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the short term, synthetic rubber will follow the rubber sector and be strong in a volatile market, but the fundamentals of its own industrial chain still face significant pressure [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Market Data**: BU2508's closing price was 3,649 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price was 3,663 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. BU2509's closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 3,643 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [22]. - **Market News**: From July 11 - 17, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4%; a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons, an increase of 16.5%. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% compared to July 14. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.827 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to July 14 [36]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The 09 - contract futures price was 2,484 yuan/ton; the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton; the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton; the basis was 141 [37]. - **Market News**: The price of the caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The high - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but the sales at high prices are not good after the price increase. The sales of low - concentration caustic soda at high prices have slowed down [38]. - **View**: Caustic soda is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient upward momentum, but it has strong cost support due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. It's advisable to take long - short spreads for the 10 - 1 contracts [39]. 3.6 Pulp - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the night - session closing price was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan. The trading volume was 180,569 lots, an increase of 20,629 lots; the open interest was 141,751 lots, a decrease of 1,682 lots [44]. - **Industry News**: The average price of the imported pulp market has risen slightly this period. The supply - side port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas offer is declining; the downstream paper mill's start - up rate is stable and low, and the procurement is only for rigid restocking [45][47]. 3.7 Glass - **Market Data**: The closing price of FG509 was 1,092 yuan/ton, up 2.06%. The trading volume was 1,832,573 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,105 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 22 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 76 yuan [49]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass market remains stable with minor fluctuations. The selling prices in some Shahe markets have slightly declined, and the demand sustainability is uncertain [49]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 449,450 lots, an increase of 539 lots; the open interest was 653,886 lots, a decrease of 196 lots [52]. - **Market News**: The port methanol market fluctuated slightly this period. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [54]. - **View**: Methanol is expected to run in a short - term volatile state. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand has also weakened, with MTO having a neutral - to - low profit and traditional demand declining [54]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,743 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 137,230 lots, an increase of 10,358 lots; the open interest was 198,012 lots, an increase of 379 lots [56]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. In the short term, domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing a volatile trend [57]. 3.10 Styrene - **Market Data**: Styrene2507 was 7,260 yuan/ton; Styrene2508 was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; Styrene2509 was 7,221 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [59]. - **Market News**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, while the supply of styrene has increased and the demand has decreased. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation phase [60]. 3.11 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The closing price of SA2509 was 1,225 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The trading volume was 1,359,320 lots, and the open interest decreased by 39,415 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 25 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 46 yuan [63]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is running steadily and lightly, with flexible price transactions. The soda ash production device is running stably, and the production is at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the transactions are mainly based on demand [63]. 3.12 LPG - **Market Data**: The closing price of PG2508 was 4,078 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; the night - session closing price was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of PG2509 was 3,985 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the night - session closing price was 3,992 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [66]. - **Market News**: On July 16, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for August: propane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; butane was 519 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The expected Saudi CP for September: propane was 548 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; butane was 518 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [73]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of FU2509 was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of FU2510 was 2,878 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The closing price of LU2509 was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 1.38%; the closing price of LU2510 was 3,576 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [76]. - **View**: Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [76]. 3.14 Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Market Data**: The closing price of short - fiber 2508 was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of bottle - chip 2508 was 5,928 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [78]. - **Market News**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber futures are in a volatile state. The factory offers are stable, and the discounts have been moderately increased. The polyester bottle - chip factory offers have been partially increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere is light [78][79]. 3.15 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Data**: The prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged on July 17, 2025 [82]. - **Industry News**: The mainstream intended transaction price of high - white offset printing paper in the Shandong market is 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that in the Guangdong market is 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton. The social orders are in the off - season, and the dealers' inventory - clearing progress is average [83]. 3.16 Pure Benzene - **Market Data**: BZ2603 was 6,122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the styrene inventory in East China ports was 131,060 tons, up 1,640 tons [84]. - **News**: As of July 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.75% and a year - on - year increase of 272.73%. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 24.22% compared to the previous period [85].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].