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地缘风险及去库趋势驱动金银震荡偏强
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-02-28 14:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, precious metal prices fluctuated strongly. The continuous reduction of COMEX precious metal inventories and the pressure on deliverable inventories, along with strong demand - side support, geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the US dollar, all provided support for precious metal prices. However, the unexpected performance of US PPI data may delay the Fed's interest - rate cut process, which limits the upside space for gold to some extent. The short - term strategy suggests a bullish approach, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1250 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 22400 - 24500 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Review**: Shanghai gold rose 3.41% to 1147.90 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 16.36% to 23019.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.92% to 5296.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 7.26% to 94.39 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 97.64 [11]. - **Fundamentals**: COMEX precious metal inventories continued to decline, with the silver inventory reduction trend being significant. The demand side remained strong. In 2026, the global silver supply gap was expected to reach 67 million ounces, and the global central bank's gold purchase volume was expected to reach 755 tons [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty in US tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening of the US dollar provided support for gold prices. However, the unexpected performance of US PPI data may delay the Fed's interest - rate cut process, limiting the upside space for gold [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1250 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 22400 - 24500 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Gold Weekly Review - **Price and Volume Data**: Shanghai gold rose 3.41% to 1147.90 yuan/gram, with a weekly high of 1151.06 yuan/gram and a low of 1146.48 yuan/gram; COMEX gold rose 0.92% to 5296.40 US dollars/ounce, with a weekly high of 5296.40 US dollars/ounce and a low of 5160.50 US dollars/ounce [20][23]. - **Inventory**: As of Friday, the COMEX gold inventory was 1036.40 tons [32]. - **Funding**: As of the latest reporting period, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds was 96,000 lots, with long positions of 121,200 lots and short positions of 25,200 lots; the total position of major foreign gold ETF funds was 1747.53 tons [38][41]. 3.3 Silver Weekly Review - **Price and Volume Data**: Shanghai silver rose 16.36% to 23019.00 yuan/kilogram, with a weekly high of 23029.00 yuan/kilogram and a low of 22327.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver rose 7.26% to 94.39 US dollars/ounce, with a weekly high of 94.39 US dollars/ounce and a low of 87.73 US dollars/ounce [44][48]. - **Inventory**: As of Friday, the COMEX silver inventory was 11207.60 tons [55]. - **Funding**: As of the latest reporting period, the net position of COMEX silver managed funds was 8523 lots, with long positions of 13365 lots and short positions of 4842 lots; the total position of major foreign silver ETF funds was 26360.56 tons [59][62]. 3.4 US Fiscal and Monetary - **Federal Reserve Balance Sheet**: The total assets of the Federal Reserve increased by 402 million US dollars week - on - week. There were changes in various items on the asset and liability sides, such as the reduction in the balance of reverse repurchase agreements and the increase in the balance of some deposits [65]. - **Federal Reserve Interest Rates**: The report presents relevant data on Federal Reserve interest rates, including the federal funds target rate, effective federal funds rate, and US Treasury yields [70]. 3.5 US Macroeconomic Data - **GDP**: The report shows the year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter growth rates of US GDP [75]. - **CPI**: The report presents data on US CPI, including year - on - year and core CPI, as well as the contribution of various components to CPI growth [78]. - **PPI**: US PPI and core PPI showed year - on - year and month - on - month increases, with cost - push inflationary pressures rising [81]. - **PMI**: The report shows data on US ISM - PMI manufacturing and its sub - items [83]. - **Housing**: The report presents data on US new private housing construction, new housing sales, and the S&P/CS housing price index [85]. - **Employment**: In January 2026, the private sector added 172,000 non - farm jobs, with significant differences in employment changes in different industries [88]. - **Personal Income**: The report shows data on the average hourly wage of US non - farm private sector employees and the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income [91]. 3.6 Global Liquidity Tracking - **Interest Rates of Major Economies**: The report shows the interest rates of major economies and their week - on - week changes [96][99]. - **Exchange Rates of Major Economies**: The report shows the week - on - week changes in the exchange rates of major economies against the RMB and the US dollar [102][103]. - **Stock Indexes of Major Economies**: The report shows the week - on - week changes in the stock indexes of developed and developing countries, as well as the week - on - week changes in the sectors of US and European stock markets [105][108].