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黑色金属数据日报-20251216
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 03:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices opened low and rebounded slightly. The market's pricing of the outbound license policy was relatively neutral. Spot prices rose slightly with the support of stable futures prices. The supply - demand structure was still weak on a weekly basis, and furnace materials were under pressure. There may be some inventory replenishment later, and the current futures price valuation is relatively low, not recommended to chase short [2] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel prices are under pressure, direct demand is weakening, and there is a large negative feedback pressure. The alloy plants have poor profits but high production, with a large supply - surplus pressure in the medium term. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] - The coking coal and coke futures rebounded, but the spot market sentiment was still weak. The third round of price cuts is expected this week. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible start of winter storage replenishment. Indonesia's plan to levy an export tax on coal will have a limited impact on China [4] - Iron ore prices are hard to improve due to rising port inventories. Iron water is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Steel mills may replenish iron ore inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down. Hold previous short positions and consider taking profits at the lower limit of the range [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 15, the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. were provided. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of relevant varieties were also given [1] Spot Market - On December 15, the spot prices and price changes of various varieties in different regions were provided, including Shanghai and Tianjin for steel, and different ports for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [1] Steel - The futures price opened low and rebounded slightly. Spot prices rose slightly, and the supply - demand was weak. There may be inventory replenishment later. The current futures price valuation is relatively low [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel price pressure leads to weak direct demand, and there is a large negative - feedback pressure. The alloy plants' production is high, and the supply - surplus pressure in the medium term is large. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market is weak, with the third - round price cuts expected this week. The futures rebounded after pricing in the 6 - round price - cut expectation but then oscillated. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible winter - storage replenishment [4] Iron Ore - Iron water is still falling and is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Port inventories are rising, and prices are hard to improve. Steel mills may replenish inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down [5]