Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. One round of price hikes has started, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rounds. In the short - term, the downstream steel mills are profitable, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke is supported, with the futures market likely to remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. Once the macro sentiment fades, the speculative demand release will intensify the resonance decline of the black chain. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, being cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 800 - 980, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.17% and a historical percentile of 62.88%. For coke, the price range is 1400 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.09% and a historical percentile of 48.21% [3]. 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2086 tons, iron ore decreased by 100 lots, and silicon - manganese decreased by 546 contracts. The inventory of other varieties remained unchanged [3]. 4. Analysis of Core Contradictions - In the short - term, the market is likely to remain strong due to warm macro - atmosphere, tight spot liquidity, and good downstream steel mill profits. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. It is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [4]. 5. Interpretation of Bullish Factors - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and it is difficult to reduce iron - making output in July. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [5]. 6. Interpretation of Bearish Factors - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent arrival pressure at ports will increase [7]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the basis of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc. have also changed slightly [7]. 8. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the price of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the import profit of some coal varieties has also changed [8][9].