Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Coking Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be between 1200 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 37.90% and a historical percentile of 73.74% [3] - The monthly price range for coke is predicted to be between 1650 - 1850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.18% and a historical percentile of 62.12% [3] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, and the spot supply - demand becomes loose, coke enterprises worried about price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - overrun inspections, coking plants worried about price increases can long - buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1200, 1250) and 50% at (1150, 1200) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - For various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese, the report shows their warehouse receipt quantities on September 24, 23, and 17, as well as the daily and weekly changes [4] Market Situation Analysis - Downstream pre - holiday stockpiling improved the coking coal inventory structure, and there was a price - support sentiment at the mine mouth, leading to a stop in the decline and a rebound of coking coal spot prices. The second - round price cut for coke was fully implemented, and the cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, squeezing coking profits. Some coke enterprises tried to raise prices, but it was difficult to implement before the holiday [4] Outlook and Strategy - "Anti - involution" remains the focus in the second half of the year. Market participants' expectations for the future have improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Coal and coke are not considered as short - allocation in the black series. The high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices. The report does not recommend using coking coal as a short - allocation in the black series and suggests paying attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [4] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Pre - holiday seasonal stockpiling by downstream, improved inventory pressure at mines, price - support at the mine mouth, and attempts by some coke enterprises to raise prices; the second - round price cut for coke improved steel profits, and high pig - iron production provided rigid support for coal and coke demand in the short term; "Anti - involution" is the trading focus, and macro - sentiment will affect the market; the Fed's 25BP interest rate cut and expected further cuts support the overall valuation of commodities [4][6] - **Negative Factors**: High social inventory pressure of finished steel products and lower - than - expected peak - season demand limit the rebound space of coal and coke; high average daily customs clearance at the 288 Port and high coal shipping volume indicate strong imported coal supply [4][7] Group 4: Coal and Coke Price Data Futures Price Data - The report provides detailed data on coking coal and coke futures, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, coking profit, and various ratios such as the ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio, along with their daily and weekly changes [8] Spot Price Data - It shows the spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported coal, different types of coke, and their daily and weekly changes. It also presents data on import and export profits, coking profits, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal [9][10] Group 5: Graphical Data - The report includes multiple graphs showing historical volatility percentages of coking coal and coke, seasonal customs clearance vehicle numbers at the 288 Port, term - structure spread of coking coal and coke, seasonal patterns of futures spreads and basis, warehouse receipt inventory seasonality, import profit seasonality, coking profit seasonality, and ratio seasonality between different types of coal and thermal coal [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. One round of price hikes has started, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rounds. In the short - term, the downstream steel mills are profitable, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke is supported, with the futures market likely to remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. Once the macro sentiment fades, the speculative demand release will intensify the resonance decline of the black chain. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, being cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 800 - 980, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.17% and a historical percentile of 62.88%. For coke, the price range is 1400 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.09% and a historical percentile of 48.21% [3]. 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2086 tons, iron ore decreased by 100 lots, and silicon - manganese decreased by 546 contracts. The inventory of other varieties remained unchanged [3]. 4. Analysis of Core Contradictions - In the short - term, the market is likely to remain strong due to warm macro - atmosphere, tight spot liquidity, and good downstream steel mill profits. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. It is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [4]. 5. Interpretation of Bullish Factors - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and it is difficult to reduce iron - making output in July. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [5]. 6. Interpretation of Bearish Factors - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent arrival pressure at ports will increase [7]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the basis of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc. have also changed slightly [7]. 8. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the price of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the import profit of some coal varieties has also changed [8][9].