硅铁&锰硅观点：情绪冲击盘面，合金博弈加剧 | 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 | | --- | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint n 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，周五市场上受到锰铁企业会议信息的影响，情绪冲击盘面价格，使得价格走势涨停。 n 宏观：国家发展改革委修订印发《固定资产投资项目节能审查和碳排放评价办法》，对项目用能和碳排放情况进行综合审查评价；锰铁相关会议召开，提出锰系工厂 开展节能计划，减少污染排放等相关内容。海外：美国与贸易对手关税谈判进度加快，本周与日本、印尼、菲律宾关税政策落地，第三轮中美贸易谈判将于下周一、 二举行，全球不确定性缓和，进一步提升市场风险偏好。 n 微观：铁水产量环比微缩，但日产量仍高于240万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the alloy prices were affected by macro - sentiment disturbances and fluctuated following the black sector. The supply of ferrosilicon expanded month - on - month, and production resumed in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The supply of silicomanganese continued to rebound, with production expanding in the northern main producing areas. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased month - on - month, particularly in Inner Mongolia, while silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with obvious inventory accumulation in Ningxia and de - stocking in other regions. The futures inventory of both alloys declined from a high level. Demand, as shown by blast furnace operation and hot metal production, decreased month - on - month and has reached a peak and started to decline, but the seasonal performance of the demand side is better than last year. In terms of cost valuation, the cost centers of both alloys have declined, which may drag down the silicomanganese futures price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both alloys has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures price trends. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, steel mill production rhythms, the impact of weather on global manganese ore shipments, and market sentiment after the arrival of Australian ore this week [4][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon showed a weak trend, closing at 5,206 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 92 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 450,871 lots and an open interest of 89,676 lots, a week - on - week change of - 59,303 lots. The 2509 contract of silicomanganese rebounded slightly, closing at 5,538 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 60 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,192,152 lots and an open interest of 452,001 lots, a week - on - week change of - 30,755 lots [2][8]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions of the country fluctuated. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main producing areas was 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions of the country was 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 6517 - type silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton, and that in Guangxi was 5300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon compared to the ferrosilicon spot in Inner Mongolia was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of the 2509 contract of silicomanganese compared to the silicomanganese spot in Inner Mongolia was - 88 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2407 and 2508 contracts of ferrosilicon was 74 yuan/ton, a change of - 32 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 and 2508 contracts of silicomanganese was - 2 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [14]. - **Spread between Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: As of this week, the spot spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2507 contract of silicomanganese was - 314 yuan/ton, a change of - 156 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2509 contract of silicomanganese was - 332 yuan/ton, a change of - 152 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply This week, the output of ferrosilicon was 97,300 tons, a month - on - month change of 12,400 tons and a change rate of 14.6%. The weekly operating rate was 32.78%, a change of 2.34 percentage points compared to the previous week. The output of silicomanganese was 171,900 tons, a month - on - month change of 2,000 tons and a change rate of 1.2%. The weekly operating rate was 35.03%, a change of 0.26 percentage points compared to the previous week [2][21]. 3.2.2 Demand The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.65%, a change of - 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week, and their daily average hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 110,000 tons [2][25]. 3.2.3 Inventory As of June 6, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,780 tons, a month - on - month change of - 7,390 tons compared to half a month ago. The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 186,600 tons, a month - on - month change of 500 tons compared to a week ago [3][27]. 3.2.4 Profit This week, the profits of both alloys decreased month - on - month, while the silicomanganese's futures profit increased slightly. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the ferrosilicon's main contract decreased to - 387.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 221 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the silicomanganese's main contract was - 425.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 89.2 yuan/ton. The spot profit of ferrosilicon was - 341.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 173 yuan/ton; the spot profit of silicomanganese was - 513.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 20.8 yuan/ton [28][29]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material for ferrosilicon, remained at 595 yuan/ton. The port price of manganese ore, the main raw material for silicomanganese, started to decline. The price of semi - coke also decreased, causing the cost center of silicomanganese to decline, while the cost center of ferrosilicon remained relatively stable [33].