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中辉期货热卷早报-20250710
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 09:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel products are affected by both bullish and bearish factors and will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron ore: The short - term sentiment is strong due to the mention of anti - involution again, with short - term range participation and medium - term short positions layout [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment is good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: The sentiment remains warm, and it will fluctuate strongly [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: The market sentiment is volatile, and prices will operate within a range [18][19][20]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) Variety Views - Rebar: The de - capacity and anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, with improved expectations. The molten iron output is still high, rebar production continues to rise, and the overall export demand for steel is good [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The final ruling on anti - dumping duties on Chinese hot - rolled coil exports by Vietnam has been announced. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [4]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: Domestic demand has entered the off - season, the long - term weak state remains unchanged, and the market may operate within a range under the background of basis repair [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand are generally balanced, the fundamentals have changed little, the previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment, and it may operate within a range in the short term [5]. Price Ranges - Rebar: [3060, 3100] [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: [3190, 3230] [1]. Iron Ore Variety Views - From a fundamental perspective, the molten iron output on the demand side has declined and is expected to decline slowly later. The supply - side shipping volume rush has ended, but arrivals still have an increase. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are restocking for rigid demand. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. The mention of anti - involution has limited impact on the black industry and is mainly reflected in emotional trading in the short term [8]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Short - term range participation and medium - term short positions layout [9]. Price Range - [730, 760] [1]. Coke Variety Views - The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The output of independent coking enterprises has declined recently, but the output of steel mills and coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. The market sentiment has improved in the short term, and it will operate strongly with fluctuations [12]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Strong in the short term [13]. Price Range - [1450, 1480] [1]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with little change, and the absolute level is lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and the supply will tend to increase later. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, so it will operate strongly in the short term [16]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Strong in the short term [17]. Price Range - [860, 890] [1]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) Variety Views - Ferromanganese: Last week, both supply and demand in the fundamentals increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although the molten iron output is running at a high level, the actual demand may decline under pressure with the arrival of the off - season. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals of supply and demand have increased. The cost side currently has weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak season for coal consumption, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have复产 plans, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking [19]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Ferromanganese: The market sentiment has been volatile recently, and the market is expected to operate within a range. - Ferrosilicon: The market sentiment has been volatile recently, but the real - world pressure will still suppress the rebound height, and the market is expected to operate within a range [20]. Price Ranges - Ferromanganese: [5620 - 5815] [1]. - Ferrosilicon: [5300 - 5480] [1].