1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, and expectations have improved. The supply - demand situation varies among different varieties, with some showing signs of the off - season, while others maintain a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level, and short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8][9] - The coke and coking coal markets have seen an improvement in market sentiment, with short - term bullish trends [1][12][16] - The ferroalloy market is dominated by market sentiment, with manganese silicon and silicon iron expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][18][19] 3. Summary by Variety Steel a. Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.4 million tons, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market sentiment: Driven by de - capacity and anti - involution policies, market sentiment has strengthened, and expectations have improved [1][4][5] - Price range: [3110, 3150] [1] b. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced, with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market sentiment: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas, leading to a bullish trend in trading based on sentiment and expectations [1][5] - Price range: [3250, 3290] [1] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: On the demand side, hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing, and both shipments and arrivals will increase in the future. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mills are replenishing stocks out of rigid demand, resulting in a neutral supply - demand structure [1][8] - Market sentiment: The anti - involution policy has been mentioned again. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level [1][8][9] - Price range: [750, 785] [1] Coke - Supply - demand: The production of independent coke enterprises has declined recently, but the production of steel mills' coke enterprises remains high. The high absolute level of hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][12] - Market sentiment: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and the market is oscillating with a bullish trend [1][12][13] - Price range: [1510, 1540] [1] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][16] - Market sentiment: Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, with a short - term bullish trend [1][16][17] - Price range: [900, 930] [1] Ferroalloys a. Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports prices, but there are expectations of cost loosening due to the decline in electricity costs in multiple production areas and the slight drop in the far - month quotes of some mines. The actual demand may be under pressure as the off - season approaches [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating with a bullish trend. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][19][20] - Price range: [5685, 5880] [1] b. Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand have decreased. After the reduction of electricity prices in production areas, the cost line has further declined. The factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories have plans to resume production, while the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][19][20] - Price range: [5390, 5580] [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and short in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short term [14][16][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations in the short term [18][19][20] Core Views - The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. The trading logic has shifted from industrial fundamentals to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [1][4][5] - For iron ore, the anti - involution policy has limited impact on the black industry, with short - term emotional trading [1][8][9] - Coke's fundamentals remain relatively stable, with short - term market sentiment improving [12][13] - Coking coal supply is expected to increase later, but short - term market sentiment is positive [16][17] - Ferroalloys' short - term prices are dominated by market sentiment, with potential for price increases due to cost factors [19][20] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory decreased slightly, and it shows obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production dropped below 2.4 million tons but remained at a high level [1][4] - Market: The trading logic has shifted, and the market is bullish under the background of basis repair, with a price range of [3120, 3160] [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market: Driven by strong macro - sentiment and some regional production restriction news, it is bullish, with a price range of [3260, 3300] [1][5] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Hot metal production is expected to decline slowly. Supply shipments have ended, but arrivals are increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral [1][8] - Market: Short - term emotional trading is strong. Participate within the range in the short term and short in the medium term, with a price range of [750, 780] [1][8][9] Coke - Supply - demand: Independent coking enterprise production has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise production remains high. Hot metal production is at a high level, ensuring raw material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level [1][12] - Market: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic production has been stable recently, lower than the same period last year. Some shut - down mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month but remained high, and spot trading has improved [1][16] - Market: Market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish in the short term, with a price range of [890, 920] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased last week, but inventory pressure is still obvious. The cost of ore provides strong support at the bottom. Although hot metal production is high, actual demand may decline in the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations. Pay attention to the 6000 yuan/ton mark, with a price range of [5710 - 5905] [1][19][20] Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased, and the cost provides weak support. Prices may rise in the coal consumption peak season from July to August, but factory inventory is high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [5480 - 5670] [1][19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel products are affected by both bullish and bearish factors and will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron ore: The short - term sentiment is strong due to the mention of anti - involution again, with short - term range participation and medium - term short positions layout [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment is good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: The sentiment remains warm, and it will fluctuate strongly [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: The market sentiment is volatile, and prices will operate within a range [18][19][20]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) Variety Views - Rebar: The de - capacity and anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, with improved expectations. The molten iron output is still high, rebar production continues to rise, and the overall export demand for steel is good [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The final ruling on anti - dumping duties on Chinese hot - rolled coil exports by Vietnam has been announced. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [4]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: Domestic demand has entered the off - season, the long - term weak state remains unchanged, and the market may operate within a range under the background of basis repair [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand are generally balanced, the fundamentals have changed little, the previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment, and it may operate within a range in the short term [5]. Price Ranges - Rebar: [3060, 3100] [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: [3190, 3230] [1]. Iron Ore Variety Views - From a fundamental perspective, the molten iron output on the demand side has declined and is expected to decline slowly later. The supply - side shipping volume rush has ended, but arrivals still have an increase. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are restocking for rigid demand. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. The mention of anti - involution has limited impact on the black industry and is mainly reflected in emotional trading in the short term [8]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Short - term range participation and medium - term short positions layout [9]. Price Range - [730, 760] [1]. Coke Variety Views - The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The output of independent coking enterprises has declined recently, but the output of steel mills and coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. The market sentiment has improved in the short term, and it will operate strongly with fluctuations [12]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Strong in the short term [13]. Price Range - [1450, 1480] [1]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with little change, and the absolute level is lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and the supply will tend to increase later. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, so it will operate strongly in the short term [16]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Strong in the short term [17]. Price Range - [860, 890] [1]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) Variety Views - Ferromanganese: Last week, both supply and demand in the fundamentals increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although the molten iron output is running at a high level, the actual demand may decline under pressure with the arrival of the off - season. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals of supply and demand have increased. The cost side currently has weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak season for coal consumption, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have复产 plans, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking [19]. Disk Operation Suggestions - Ferromanganese: The market sentiment has been volatile recently, and the market is expected to operate within a range. - Ferrosilicon: The market sentiment has been volatile recently, but the real - world pressure will still suppress the rebound height, and the market is expected to operate within a range [20]. Price Ranges - Ferromanganese: [5620 - 5815] [1]. - Ferrosilicon: [5300 - 5480] [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is facing a situation where long - term demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment has been boosted by policies. The overall performance of the steel market is a combination of long - term and short - term factors, resulting in a range - bound and volatile operation [1][3][4][5]. - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure, and the so - called "anti - involution" mainly affects market sentiment in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][7][8][9]. - The coke and coking coal markets have relatively stable supply - demand relationships, with some changes in production and inventory. They are expected to show a volatile trend [1][10][12][13][14][16][17]. - The ferroalloy market has a situation where supply and demand are increasing, but there are problems such as high inventory and weakening market sentiment. The price is expected to run within a range [18][19][20]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Recent anti - involution policies on capacity reduction have strengthened market sentiment and improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and steel export demand is still good. However, domestic demand has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state remains unchanged [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the context of basis repair, the market may operate within the range of [3050, 3090] [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: The final anti - dumping duty ruling on China's hot - rolled coil exports by Vietnam has been finalized. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may operate within the range of [3170, 3210] [1]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Fundamentally, hot metal production on the demand side has decreased and is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals still have an increase. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. The so - called "anti - involution" has limited impact on the black industry and mainly reflects emotional trading in the short term [1][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term, with the short - term range being [720, 750] [1][9]. Coke - **Variety View**: The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand relationship has not changed much. The short - term market sentiment has improved, but it faces moving average resistance above [1][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile trend within the range of [1420, 1455] [1]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [1][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to show a volatile trend within the range of [830, 860] [1]. Ferroalloys (including manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Variety View**: Last week, the fundamentals of supply and demand both increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although the current hot metal production is running at a high level, the actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [18][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and it will still be under pressure to operate before the fundamentals are significantly improved [20]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: The fundamentals of supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost side currently has weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have复产 plans, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking [18][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still suppress the rebound height. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound operation within the range of [5250, 5450] [1][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Steel products will fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and investors should sell short at high prices [7] - Coke supply - demand contradictions are limited, and it will oscillate within a range [10] - Coking coal will return to an oscillating state as coal mines resume production [14] - Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will operate within a range [18] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. Variety View - For rebar, recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, with improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and overall steel export demand is still good [1][4] - For hot - rolled coils, the final anti - dumping duty ruling by Vietnam on Chinese hot - rolled coil exports has been announced. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has slightly increased, apparent demand has slightly decreased month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4] 2. Trading Suggestions - Rebar demand in China has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state has not changed. The market may operate within a range under the background of basis repair, with the range being [3040, 3080] [1][5] - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have changed little. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may enter a range - bound operation, with the range being [3060, 3200] [1][5] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [2] Iron Ore 1. Variety View - From a fundamental perspective, on the demand side, hot metal production has declined, and it is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping volume rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure has weakened month - on - month [8] 2. Trading Suggestions - In the short term, participate in the market within the range [715, 740], and in the medium term, arrange short positions [1][9] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, spreads/price ratios, basis, freight rates, and spot indexes of iron ore are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [6] Coke 1. Variety View - The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, but there is resistance from the moving average above, and it may return to an oscillating state [12] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [1400, 1430] [1][13] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coke are provided, including capacity utilization, production, inventory, and profit [11] Coking Coal 1. Variety View - Domestic coking coal production has slightly decreased, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [16] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [820, 850] [1][17] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coking coal are provided, including the start - up rate, production, inventory, and inventory availability days [15] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) 1. Variety View - For manganese silicon, last week, both supply and demand in the fundamentals increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the bottom support of the ore price on the cost side is strong. Although hot metal production is still at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [19] - For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, and the cost side currently provides weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have plans to resume production, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory inventory reduction [19] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market sentiment of manganese silicon is gradually cooling down, and it will continue to be under pressure before the fundamentals are significantly improved, with the range being [5550 - 5750] [1][20] - The market sentiment of ferrosilicon is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still limit the height of the rebound. It is expected that the market will operate within a range, with the range being [5270 - 5460] [1][20] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, and weekly data of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are provided, including enterprise start - up rates, production, and inventory [18]