1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, and expectations have improved. The supply - demand situation varies among different varieties, with some showing signs of the off - season, while others maintain a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level, and short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8][9] - The coke and coking coal markets have seen an improvement in market sentiment, with short - term bullish trends [1][12][16] - The ferroalloy market is dominated by market sentiment, with manganese silicon and silicon iron expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][18][19] 3. Summary by Variety Steel a. Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.4 million tons, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market sentiment: Driven by de - capacity and anti - involution policies, market sentiment has strengthened, and expectations have improved [1][4][5] - Price range: [3110, 3150] [1] b. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced, with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market sentiment: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas, leading to a bullish trend in trading based on sentiment and expectations [1][5] - Price range: [3250, 3290] [1] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: On the demand side, hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing, and both shipments and arrivals will increase in the future. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mills are replenishing stocks out of rigid demand, resulting in a neutral supply - demand structure [1][8] - Market sentiment: The anti - involution policy has been mentioned again. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level [1][8][9] - Price range: [750, 785] [1] Coke - Supply - demand: The production of independent coke enterprises has declined recently, but the production of steel mills' coke enterprises remains high. The high absolute level of hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][12] - Market sentiment: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and the market is oscillating with a bullish trend [1][12][13] - Price range: [1510, 1540] [1] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][16] - Market sentiment: Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, with a short - term bullish trend [1][16][17] - Price range: [900, 930] [1] Ferroalloys a. Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports prices, but there are expectations of cost loosening due to the decline in electricity costs in multiple production areas and the slight drop in the far - month quotes of some mines. The actual demand may be under pressure as the off - season approaches [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating with a bullish trend. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][19][20] - Price range: [5685, 5880] [1] b. Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand have decreased. After the reduction of electricity prices in production areas, the cost line has further declined. The factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories have plans to resume production, while the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][19][20] - Price range: [5390, 5580] [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and short in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short term [14][16][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations in the short term [18][19][20] Core Views - The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. The trading logic has shifted from industrial fundamentals to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [1][4][5] - For iron ore, the anti - involution policy has limited impact on the black industry, with short - term emotional trading [1][8][9] - Coke's fundamentals remain relatively stable, with short - term market sentiment improving [12][13] - Coking coal supply is expected to increase later, but short - term market sentiment is positive [16][17] - Ferroalloys' short - term prices are dominated by market sentiment, with potential for price increases due to cost factors [19][20] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory decreased slightly, and it shows obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production dropped below 2.4 million tons but remained at a high level [1][4] - Market: The trading logic has shifted, and the market is bullish under the background of basis repair, with a price range of [3120, 3160] [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market: Driven by strong macro - sentiment and some regional production restriction news, it is bullish, with a price range of [3260, 3300] [1][5] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Hot metal production is expected to decline slowly. Supply shipments have ended, but arrivals are increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral [1][8] - Market: Short - term emotional trading is strong. Participate within the range in the short term and short in the medium term, with a price range of [750, 780] [1][8][9] Coke - Supply - demand: Independent coking enterprise production has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise production remains high. Hot metal production is at a high level, ensuring raw material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level [1][12] - Market: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic production has been stable recently, lower than the same period last year. Some shut - down mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month but remained high, and spot trading has improved [1][16] - Market: Market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish in the short term, with a price range of [890, 920] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased last week, but inventory pressure is still obvious. The cost of ore provides strong support at the bottom. Although hot metal production is high, actual demand may decline in the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations. Pay attention to the 6000 yuan/ton mark, with a price range of [5710 - 5905] [1][19][20] Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased, and the cost provides weak support. Prices may rise in the coal consumption peak season from July to August, but factory inventory is high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [5480 - 5670] [1][19][20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3060， | | | 3100】 | | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3190，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【730,760】 | | 焦炭 | 短期偏强 | 焦炭 ...

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | 螺纹钢 区间运行 | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3050， | | | | 3090】 | | | | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | 热卷 区间运行 | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3170，3210】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | 铁矿石 区间参与 | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【720,750】 | | | | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 区间运行 | | 螺纹钢 | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3040， | | | 3080】 | | 热卷 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 区间运行 | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3060，3200】 | | 铁矿石 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 区间参与 | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构环比转 | | | 弱。观点：短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【715，740】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不大。短 | | ...