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四季度AH配置展望:“共振”还是“跷跷板”
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-17 05:11
Group 1: AH Market Performance - A-shares have significantly outperformed H-shares since the beginning of Q3 2025, indicating a divergence from the AH premium rate trends[3] - The AH premium rate index recently touched a historical low of 120, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the premium rate central tendency[20] - The premium rate is influenced by liquidity differences, investor structure, and tax policies between A-shares and H-shares[5] Group 2: Q4 Outlook - The Q4 investment strategy should shift focus from aggressive tech growth sectors to policy-favored areas such as consumption and re-inflation sectors[7] - A-share earnings growth is expected to be stronger than H-share, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices showing higher projected earnings per share (EPS) growth rates[12] - The liquidity in A-shares remains robust, with a significant portion of trading activity driven by "deposit migration" phenomena[69] Group 3: Valuation and Risk - The valuation of H-shares appears less attractive compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at relatively low levels[98] - The risk premium for H-shares is currently insufficient for foreign investors, while the Nasdaq remains appealing due to its risk premium levels[100] - The report highlights potential risks including policy misalignment and model failures that could impact future performance[13]