Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of polypropylene is more likely to rise than fall, but the upside space is limited, with pressure at the [7300] price level. The demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, showing marginal improvement, which drives the price up in the short term. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new production capacity being continuously launched and the existing production load also being relatively high [6]. - The anti - involution policy announced last Friday did not materialize. This week, the price of polyolefins fluctuated and then weakened, especially on Friday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still weak. The supply pressure remains, while the recovery of the demand side is disappointing. The downstream acceptance is limited, and the market price has been adjusted downwards. Additionally, with the end of the peak season and OPEC+ increasing production, the cost - side crude oil situation is also not optimistic [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products is weak and falling, but the basis has weakened. The East China basis has weakened by 20 to around - 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, the North China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 160 yuan/ton, and the South China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 90 yuan/ton [20]. - **Non - standard basis**: The trend of the non - standard basis of plastics is similar to that of the standard basis [21]. - **Regional spread**: The North China - East China spread has rebounded, and the South China - East China spread has remained stable at a low level [34]. - **Related product spread**: The injection - molding - to - drawing spread has weakened, and the low - melt copolymer - to - drawing spread is at a medium level [35]. - **Disk spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has weakened again to below - 20. The L - PP01 spread has currently fallen to around 270. The previous PP - 701 spread dropped significantly as 1 rebounded and has recently recovered and stabilized. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for thick - film starts in September, but the demand recovery of PP is relatively slow. Recently, due to the lower - than - expected demand for L, the spread has turned downward. The methanol is statically weak, and the inventory has rapidly accumulated under high imports. However, the narrative of winter gas restrictions in Iran has begun, and the 01 contract has stopped falling and rebounded, with limited upward space for MTO profits [54]. 2. Domestic Production - end Profit and Supply - **Production profit**: - Oil - based production: The oil price rebounded slightly this week and then fell back. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and OPEC+ is considering increasing production in October. The oil - based production profit remains at a relatively good level in recent years [82]. - PDH production: The overseas supply of LPG from the Middle East and the United States will further increase, and the domestic supply from local refineries will return. The supply pressure has further increased. The PDH profit is not good [82]. - Coal - based production: As the coal price rebounds, the CTO profit has shrunk but still remains at a high level. The inland MTO profit has deteriorated under the tight supply - demand situation of methanol [82]. - **Domestic production volume and load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 4401 tons, and in early 2025, it was expected to increase by 265.5 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of August 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 370.5 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 8.31%. The planned production capacity in 2025 is 490.5 tons, with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of 11% [115][117][118]. - This week, the PP production volume was 78.67 tons (- 2.73 tons), and the operating rate was 76.83% (- 3.08%). The supply loss of PP was 23.10 tons, including 16.64 tons of maintenance loss and 6.45 tons of load - reduction loss. Some devices such as Daqing Refining & Chemical and Donghua Energy (Zhangjiagang) stopped production this week, and the supply has declined from a high level [119]. - **Regional operating rate**: The operating rates of different regions show different trends. The data of the operating rates of the Northwest, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions are provided, with different trends over time [131][132][136]. - **Production allocation ratio**: An increase in the drawing production allocation may indicate that the short - term standard products are stronger than non - standard products, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [140]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US dollar price and spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels, and the overall price in Asia has weakened. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [149][150]. - **Import - export profit**: The domestic market is weakly consolidating. The export offers of production enterprises remain stable, while overseas inquiries are scarce. China's price is at a "global low," and it is difficult to open the import arbitrage window [166]. 4. Downstream Operating Rate - This week, the overall downstream operating rate increased by 0.63% month - on - month. Most operating rates are recovering. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.4%, the operating rates of BOPP and CPP increased by 0.12% and 2.2% respectively, the operating rate of PP pipes rebounded by 0.17%, and the operating rates of modification and injection molding are also rising. With the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October," the downstream operating rate will further increase [169]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprises' inventory decreased by 1.24 tons to 57.51 tons. The inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 3.09 tons, while the coal - chemical inventory increased by 0.58 tons. The PBI inventory decreased by 0.9 tons, and the local refinery inventory increased by 2.17 tons. The supply pressure has increased, but the upstream petrochemical inventory has been actively transferred to the intermediate - trader link, resulting in a slight decrease in the production enterprises' inventory this week [11][223]. - Traders' inventory increased by 2.29 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link is being digested slowly. The port inventory decreased by 0.16 tons [11][223]. 6. Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The position volumes of the polypropylene 05, 09, and 01 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [237]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volumes of the polypropylene 01, 05, and 09 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [239][242][245]. - **Warehouse receipt**: The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on September 12, 2025, is 17,191, with a trend over time [251][252].