Workflow
反向市场
icon
Search documents
铁矿石期货日报-20250822
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 13:59
Report Overview - The report is a daily report on iron ore futures, covering the futures market, spot market, influencing factors, and market outlook [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On August 21, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. The price rose in the night session, fell after the day - session opening, reached a low of 770 points, then rose around 10:15 am, and fell again near the end of the session, closing at 772.5 points with a 0.98% increase. The trading volume was 281,800 lots, a decrease of 7,600 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 11,185 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a reverse market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts rose by 4 to 7.5 points throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 839,690 lots, an increase of 1,746 lots from the previous trading day, with the i2601 contract's open interest increasing by 11,185 lots [5] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 31.6 yuan/ton, a minimum of 23.6 yuan/ton, and 30.4 yuan/ton on the day [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 3,100 lots, a minimum of 2,000 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Macroeconomic Environment Impact - Overseas macro - disturbances: The Fed's July meeting minutes sent hawkish signals, strengthening the US dollar index and suppressing commodity prices. Domestically, the stable LPR rate reflects the expectation of loose monetary policy, increasing market sentiment volatility [9] 3.2 Demand - side Support and Concerns - High hot metal production and decent steel mill profits provide short - term support for iron ore prices. However, with the approaching of a major event on September 3, steel mill production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may be tightened, and port transportation may be restricted, causing concerns about weakening future demand [10] 4. Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract rebounded with narrow fluctuations on the day. The fundamentals are in a weak equilibrium stage of both supply and demand increasing. High hot metal production provides rigid demand support, but supply is rising and inventory accumulation pressure is emerging. Technically, the price shows significant range - bound characteristics, with intense competition in the 770 - 780 yuan/ton range. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [11]