宏观经济环境是股票投资的重要外部因素。经济周期的变化对各个行业和企业的经营业绩有着直接的影 响。在经济扩张期，消费旺盛，企业盈利增加，股市往往呈现上升趋势；而在经济衰退期，消费低迷， 企业经营困难，股市通常表现不佳。货币政策和财政政策也关系重大，宽松的货币政策会增加市场流动 性，促使资金流入股市，推动股价上涨；财政政策如政府增加公共支出、减税等措施，能刺激经济增 长，带动相关企业业绩提升，进而影响股价。此外，汇率、通胀等因素也会间接对股票投资产生作用， 比如汇率波动可能影响出口型企业的利润，通胀水平的变化会改变投资者对资产配置的需求。 风险控制是股票投资过程中贯穿始终的要点。市场风险是无法回避的，股票市场受多种因素影响，价格 波动频繁且剧烈，投资者需要对这种波动有充分的认识和承受能力。公司自身也可能面临诸多风险，比 如经营风险，若公司在产品研发、市场拓展或内部管理方面出现问题，可能就会影响其盈利状况和市场 声誉。通过分散投资可以在一定程度上降低风险，投资者不应将全部资金集中投入到一只或少数几只股 票上，而是要构建多样化的投资组合，涵盖不同行业、不同规模的股票，这样当某一板块或个别股票表 现不佳时，其他股票可能 ...

美股市场规模庞大、种类丰富，投资者在选择投资标的时需要进行全面且深入的考量。这涉及从不同维 度去分析各类资产的特性，以做出契合自身投资目标与风险承受能力的决策。 免责声明： 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 本文源自：金融界 估值指标更是不可忽略的重要参考。市盈率（PE）是衡量公司估值的常用指标，它体现了投资者愿意 为公司每一单位盈利支付的价格。一般而言，较低的市盈率可能意味着公司股票被低估，具有投资价 值，但也需警惕公司可能面临的经营困境导致盈利下降；反之，过高的市盈率则可能暗示股票存在高估 风险。市净率（PB）反映了公司股价与每股净资产之间的关系，对于一些重资产行业，如制造业、银 行业等，PB 指标能够帮助投资者了解公司股票价格是否合理。 除了公司基本面，宏观经济环境对美股投资标的选择有着重要影响。不同行业在经济周期的不同阶段表 现各异。在经济扩张期，消费、科技等行业通常表现活跃，因为消费者信心提升，消费能力增强，同时 科技创新需求也更为旺盛，相关公司业绩有望实现大幅增长；在经济衰退 ...

惠誉评级：疲软的美国宏观经济环境导致五月份发行人违约事件增加。 ...

近期，钯金价格成为贵金属市场的焦点之一。在黄金、铂金相继出现显著上涨的背景下，市场对钯金能否 突破300元/克大关充满期待。然而，这一目标的实现并非坦途，而是需要综合考量供需格局、产业链变 革、宏观经济环境及资金流向等多重因素。 供需博弈：传统需求与新兴领域的角力 钯金市场目前正处于传统需求与新兴领域交替的关键阶段。传统汽车领域的需求虽仍占据主导地位，但面 临着电动化转型的冲击。全球燃油车销量逐年下滑，但混动车型（HEV/PHEV）的崛起为钯金需求提供了 支撑。混动车型仍需使用三元催化器，且钯金用量较纯电车型高出3倍，这在一定程度上对冲了燃油车需 求下滑的影响。与此同时，新兴领域的需求正在悄然增长。氢燃料电池车的商业化进程加速，每辆车需50- 100克钯金催化剂，而全球氢燃料电池车销量预计在2025年达到10万辆，这为钯金需求开辟了新的增长 点。 在供应端，钯金市场同样面临着挑战。全球钯金资源高度集中，俄罗斯和南非的产量占比超过75%。然 而，地缘政治风险和电力危机持续困扰着这两个主要生产国。俄罗斯因西方制裁导致钯金出口受限，而南 非则因电力短缺问题导致矿企频繁减产。尽管回收钯金的技术日益成熟，年回收量已占总 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】据路透社报道，曾一度主导在线招聘行业的CareerBuilder + Monster公司于近 日申请了第11章破产保护，并表示计划出售旗下业务。 CareerBuilder + Monster还同意将其为联邦和州政府提供服务的软件业务出售给加拿大软件公司Valsoft， 同时将military.com和fastweb.com出售给加拿大媒体公司Valnet。 根据提交给特拉华州破产法院的文件，CareerBuilder + Monster的资产在5000万美元至1亿美元之间，债 务则在1亿美元至5亿美元之间。目前，该公司正在筹集2000万美元资金，以维持其在破产期间的运营。 首席执行官Jeff Furman在一份声明中表示，CareerBuilder + Monster面临着"充满挑战与不确定性的宏观 经济环境"，而在法院监督下进行出售程序是实现最大化企业价值、保住工作岗位的最佳方式。 CareerBuilder + Monster由私募股权公司阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）和荷兰人力 资源公司任仕达（Randstad）共同拥有。（南木） 这家总部 ...

中东变局下油价、金价怎么看？20250618 摘要 地缘政治风险短期内提振油价，但长期影响有限。若伊朗封锁霍尔木兹 海峡，可能导致全球原油运输受阻，油价或飙升至 100 美元以上，但中 美干预的可能性限制了长期封锁的风险，预计 2025 年第三季度油价将 在 70-85 美元区间波动。 宏观经济环境对黄金市场产生双重影响。美国债务风险和财政扩张可能 导致美元走弱，利好金价；但稳定币作为价值储存手段的兴起，可能削 弱黄金需求。投资者需密切关注宏观经济政策和数字货币发展。 黄金市场长期看涨，预计价格可达 3,700 美元。黄金经历超长周期回调 后通常会翻倍，目前金价虽已上涨至 3,300 美元以上，但距离翻倍目标 仍有空间。美元信心减弱和地缘政治因素是支撑金价上涨的关键因素。 美元走弱是黄金牛市的潜在驱动力。美联储加息策略可能因美国债务上 限而难以为继，未来三五年内黄金牛市或将持续。人民币可能成为更强 势货币，但中美博弈结果将决定未来世界最强势货币，进而影响黄金周 期。 Q&A 在当前中东局势动荡的背景下，原油价格的前景如何？ 当前中东局势对原油价格产生了显著影响。自 2025 年 6 月 13 日以来，以色 列 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year, net sales were $5.5 billion, a marginal increase compared to the prior year, driven by contributions from recent acquisitions [5] - Organic sales for the year were $5.2 billion, down 5.4% on a same-day basis compared to the prior year [6] - Net income for the full year was $115.5 million, including a $42.5 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge [6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $500.9 million, and free cash flow for the year was $336.1 million, representing 67% of adjusted EBITDA [6] - In the fourth quarter, net sales were $1.3 billion, with organic sales declining 8.3% per day [7][17] - Net income for the fourth quarter was $26.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $109.8 million [7][31] - Free cash flow generated during the quarter was $183.4 million, or 167% of adjusted EBITDA, marking the highest level of quarterly free cash flow conversion in the company's history [7][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ceilings saw volume improvement during the quarter, benefiting from the addition of CAMCO and a focus on architectural specialties projects [8][9] - Wallboard sales for the quarter were $526.6 million, down 10.1% year-over-year, with a 12.1% decrease in volume partially offset by a 1% increase in price and mix [21][22] - Steel framing sales were $189.2 million, down 14.2% for the quarter, with volumes down 2.6% and price and mix down 10.2% [25] - Complementary product sales were nearly flat year-over-year, up 1.4% on a per-day basis, representing the twentieth consecutive quarter of per-day growth in this category [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wallboard industry volumes were down 10% in the first calendar quarter, with high interest rates and policy uncertainty being primary impediments to growth [11] - U.S. residential revenues declined 6% per day compared to the prior year, with single-family volumes down 1.9% per day [20][21] - Multifamily revenues fell 32.4% and commercial revenues fell 10.1% on a per-day basis [20] - The company expects to slightly outpace normal seasonal trends in wallboard volumes for the fiscal first quarter [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on four strategic pillars: expanding share in core products, growing complementary products, expanding the platform, and driving improved productivity and profitability [15] - A significant cost savings program has been executed, achieving $25 million in annualized cost savings in the fiscal fourth quarter, totaling $55 million for the year [16][18] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation, balancing stock buybacks with debt reduction while pursuing attractive M&A opportunities [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is cautiously optimistic about nearing the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for recovery tied closely to mortgage rates and the broader macroeconomic environment [10][35] - The company anticipates that pent-up demand will materialize when conditions improve, with expectations for single-family volumes to be flat to slightly up year-over-year for the fiscal first quarter [36] - Management acknowledges the need for market recovery to achieve long-term margin targets of 10% to 12% [62] Other Important Information - The company reduced net debt by more than 10% during the quarter, maintaining a leverage ratio within the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 times [16] - Cash on hand as of April 30 was $55.6 million, with $631.3 million of available liquidity under the revolving credit facility [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the sequential organic trends and why they might improve? - Management noted improvements primarily in the single-family market and share gains with larger customers, contributing to a more positive outlook [44] Question: What technology and efficiency optimization efforts are being implemented? - The company has continued to invest in digital initiatives, including e-commerce and automation, which have contributed to cost reductions and improved efficiencies [48][49] Question: How does the company view the single-family market dynamics and share gains? - Management indicated that they are leveraging scale to support builder partners and have gained share through strong relationships and geographic focus [56][58] Question: What is the expected timeline for seeing start activity flow into shipments? - Typically, there is a three to six-month lead time for production large builder focus, with visibility comfortable for the current quarter [72] Question: How permanent are the recent cost reductions? - Management estimates that about 50% of the cost reductions are permanent, while the other 50% may return with volume recovery [77]

高盛发布美国啤酒市场研究报告，主要调查了啤酒分销商对市场趋势的看法。报告指出，今年的啤酒市 场在阵亡将士纪念日周末表现不佳，未能达到预期。 报告显示，约55%的分销商认为今年阵亡将士纪念日的销售趋势比去年有所减弱，其中约13%的受访者 表示啤酒销售趋势比去年弱得多。 展望未来，分销商对啤酒夏季销售季的前景普遍持谨慎态度，56%的受访者预计销售将比去年同期疲 软。此外，分销商预计啤酒类别的销售今年将进一步减速，下降1.9%，2024年为下降1.0%。 考虑到严峻的宏观环境，高盛采取选择性策略来寻找最有潜力表现出色的标的。基于此，高盛重申对星 座品牌的"买入"评级，因为分销商表示该公司的月度销量趋势出现了一些潜在的积极信号(至少在5月份 有所加速)。 各品牌表现方面，分销商表示，百威英博(BUD.US)在阵亡将士纪念日假期周末的销量趋势最为强劲， 35%的分销商表示该品牌的销量较去年有所增长，其次是星座品牌(STZ.US)和波斯顿啤酒(SAM.US)。 喜力(HEINY.US)则表现不佳，66%的分销商表示该品牌销量与去年相比有所下降。 高盛表示，具有挑战性的宏观经济环境是影响啤酒销量的最大因素，消费者可支配收入 ...

技术演进方面，比特币网络的持续升级为其价值存储功能提供了更强支撑。闪电网络的快速发展改善了支付效率，Taproot升 级则增强了隐私性和智能合约功能。这些技术进步不仅巩固了比特币在加密生态系统中的核心地位，也为其应用场景拓展创造 了条件。 从投资周期角度观察，比特币市场呈现出明显的周期性特征。历史数据显示，在每次减半事件后的18-24个月，比特币价格往 往会出现显著上涨。当前市场正处于这一周期的时间窗口，机构投资者的持续入场正在改变以往散户主导的市场结构。 海能投顾认为，理解比特币市场的运行逻辑需要建立多维度的分析框架。投资者既要关注宏观经济环境的变化，也要深入理解 区块链技术的演进，同时需要密切跟踪市场参与者的行为模式。只有建立系统性的认知体系，才能在这个快速发展的市场中把 握真正的投资机会。 比特币近期突破历史高位的表现引发了市场广泛关注。作为专业的投资研究机构，海能投顾从宏观经济、市场供需和技术演进 三个维度进行深入分析，揭示本轮行情背后的深层逻辑。 从宏观经济环境来看，全球主要经济体持续宽松的货币政策为加密货币市场提供了充裕的流动性支持。美联储维持低利率政 策，叠加部分国家出现的通胀压力，促使更多投资 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][36] - Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33 compared to the previous year [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue increased by 24% to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue growing 24% and DTC revenue rising 23% [11][36] - UGG brand revenue grew by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue increasing 15% and DTC revenue rising 11% [24][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [11] - UGG's international revenue increased by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and expanding international presence [9][10] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to enhance product innovation and expand into lifestyle and fitness categories [19][23] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty due to shifting U.S. trade policy but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt [8] - The company expects fiscal year 2026 to face challenges, including potential tariff impacts of up to $150 million on cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects for both HOKA and UGG [49] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and confidence in its strategic plan [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine, who retired after 14 years of service [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC? - Management noted that the slowdown was due to unique factors in the U.S. market, including model changeovers and increased promotions, but expressed confidence in international performance [55][56] Question: Is mid-teens growth for HOKA still possible? - Management indicated that while they are not providing formal guidance, they remain optimistic about mid-teens growth based on strong international performance and brand awareness [60][64] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of tariff costs? - The $150 million tariff cost is a gross estimate, and management is exploring pricing adjustments and cost-sharing strategies to mitigate the impact [75][76] Question: How will HOKA's growth be split between DTC and wholesale? - Management emphasized that the growth framework includes strategic expansion of wholesale distribution, which is expected to drive consumer engagement and brand awareness [81][82]