1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the strong performance of precious metals, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is generally positive. However, each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price influencing factors, and the price trends vary [2][3]. - For copper, although there is a possibility of a short - term price increase, the resistance to upward movement is increasing. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. For lead, the price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term. For zinc, it may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term. For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. For nickel, the short - term bottom may have emerged. For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply pressure eases and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper price rose 0.34% to $11,911/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 93,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, the bonded - area inventory increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 49,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot widened to 1,600 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly to 4,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The sentiment is positive under the Fed's policy and precious metals rally. The copper mine supply is tight, and the supply surplus pressure is not large in the short term, but the resistance to upward movement is increasing. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 92,800 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,800 - 12,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.49% to $2,941/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.5 to 659,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 76,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by about 27,000 tons, and the aluminum rod processing fee decreased. The LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 520,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy View**: The overall inventory is relatively low, and the price support is strong, but there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,910 - 2,980 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.22% to 16,917 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose $5 to $1,978.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 40 tons to 1,910 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of lead ingots is tightening marginally, and the inventory is relatively low. After the short - term macro - risk release, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is strong. The lead price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.18% to 23,123 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose $19 to $3,092/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 70 tons to 11,930 tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. The LME zinc inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. Affected by macro - sentiment, the zinc price may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 340,440 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi have limited production growth momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.48% to 121,260 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rose slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have emerged due to the news of potential cobalt taxation in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 3.18% to 108,405 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 114,380 yuan, a 2.68% increase [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply pressure eases, and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The operating range of the LC2605 contract is 111,600 - 117,100 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 1.08% to 2,561 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 135 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $309/ton, and the import loss was 59 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the follow - up production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase. The social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a 2.01% decrease [25]. - **Strategy View**: The news of the reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production target has boosted the price, but the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2602 rose 0.26% to 21,290 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position remained stable at 28,900 lots, and the trading volume increased [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is relatively strong, and there are supply - side disturbances, but the demand is unstable and there is delivery pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [29].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/23 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Dec's LPR release shows both the 5-year and 1-year rates remain unchanged. ...

政策利率保持稳定、银行净息差承压导致LPR报价保持不变。 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年 期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均与上月持平。 政策利率保持稳定、银行业净息差承压这两个直接原因导致12月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，央行7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，意味着12月LPR报价的定价基础 没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。另外，12月以来包括1年期银行同业存 单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率稳中有升，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有 上升，在商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 上一次LPR利率调整要追溯至5月，当月LPR报价跟随逆回购利率下调10bps后，利率工具持续企稳。 LPR继续"按兵不动"，连续7个月保持不变。 背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口持续超预期等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长 韧性超出普遍预期。"下半年以来经济增长动能有所弱化，但实现全年'5.0%左右 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-22 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 日本如预期加息，日元走弱，美股继续回升，铜价上冲，周五伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.22%至 11870 美元/ 吨，沪铜主力合约收至 93560 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 3875 至 160400 ...

来源：第一财经 摘要 在2025年11月17日至11月21日当周，第一财经研究院中国金融条件日度指数均值为-2.35。从年内看， 指数下降0.95。从指数的分项指标来看，上周货币、股市指标指向紧缩。从货币指标来看，上周银行间 市场质押式回购成交量下滑，主要货币市场利率稳中有升。从债券指标来看，信用债收益率呈震荡走 势，信用利差收窄。从股市指标来看，上周主要股指大幅回落，市盈率和成交量同步下滑。 11月20日，人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，11月1年期LPR利率为3.0%，5年期以上LPR利 率为3.5%，自今年6月起LPR利率已连续6个月保持不变。LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是年 初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等。 11月19日，美联储公布了10月货币政策会议纪要。针对后续是否还会继续降息的问题，会议纪要显示， 美联储内部存在明显分歧。这令市场对于美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。在10月货币政策会议后的 新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔就曾表示，美联储12月降息并非板上钉钉。旧金山联储行长、明尼阿 波利斯联储行长以及美联储副主席均对12月降息保持观望和谨慎态度。与此同时，美国 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.485 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 81803 | 14928↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.935 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 71725 | 17153↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.462 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 38948 | 9953↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.870 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 94348 | -6605↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.21 | -0.02↓ T12-TL12价差 | -7.39 | 0.28↑ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.24 | -0.02↓ TF12-T12价差 | -2.55 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | -0.01 | -0.02↓ TS12-T12价差 | -6.02 | -0 ...

| | 11/20 3:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/20 待定 美国劳工部统计局：11月20日发布9月非农就业报告 | 国债期货日报 2025/11/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 108.485 0.09% T主力成交量 62429 | -1180↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 105.905 0.05% TF主力成交量 48783 | -3751↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 32335 | -3243↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 116.450 0.33% TL主力成交量 88270 | 7491↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 0.23 +0.00↑ T12-TL12价差 -7.97 | -0.22↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 0.25 +0.02↑ TF12-T12价差 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a 4.8% increase in Q3 alone, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024[4] - The cumulative industrial added value for the first three quarters increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.5% during the same period[4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for five consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%[5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1890 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%[11] Real Estate Market - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with significant declines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively[5] - Second-tier cities saw a 0.4% decrease in new residential sales prices, while third-tier cities experienced the same decline[6] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed weakness, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 2.30 basis points to 1.7680%[15] - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds, with a total operation amount of 6.1 billion yuan for various bond types[6] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 4.00%[24] - In the European market, the 10-year bond yields varied, with Germany's yield stable at 2.58% while Italy and the UK saw declines of 1 basis point[27]

Group 1 - The A500 index components show mixed performance, with Changchuan Technology leading at 20.00% increase, followed by Terui De at 12.77% and Lianang Micro at 10.00%, while Guangxun Technology leads the decline [1] - The A500 ETF fund has an active trading environment, with a turnover rate of 23.5% and a transaction volume of 3.72 billion yuan, ranking first in average daily trading volume among comparable funds at 5.14 billion yuan over the past month [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index account for 19.83% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An, and others [2] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities indicates that the market has strong mid-term upward momentum, with a positive outlook for capital market liquidity and a potential shift of household deposits to equity markets [2] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to further enhance market risk appetite, despite short-term volatility [2] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT, public utilities, and non-ferrous metals [2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on iron ore futures, covering the futures market, spot market, influencing factors, and market outlook [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On August 21, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. The price rose in the night session, fell after the day - session opening, reached a low of 770 points, then rose around 10:15 am, and fell again near the end of the session, closing at 772.5 points with a 0.98% increase. The trading volume was 281,800 lots, a decrease of 7,600 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 11,185 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a reverse market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts rose by 4 to 7.5 points throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 839,690 lots, an increase of 1,746 lots from the previous trading day, with the i2601 contract's open interest increasing by 11,185 lots [5] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 31.6 yuan/ton, a minimum of 23.6 yuan/ton, and 30.4 yuan/ton on the day [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 3,100 lots, a minimum of 2,000 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Macroeconomic Environment Impact - Overseas macro - disturbances: The Fed's July meeting minutes sent hawkish signals, strengthening the US dollar index and suppressing commodity prices. Domestically, the stable LPR rate reflects the expectation of loose monetary policy, increasing market sentiment volatility [9] 3.2 Demand - side Support and Concerns - High hot metal production and decent steel mill profits provide short - term support for iron ore prices. However, with the approaching of a major event on September 3, steel mill production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may be tightened, and port transportation may be restricted, causing concerns about weakening future demand [10] 4. Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract rebounded with narrow fluctuations on the day. The fundamentals are in a weak equilibrium stage of both supply and demand increasing. High hot metal production provides rigid demand support, but supply is rising and inventory accumulation pressure is emerging. Technically, the price shows significant range - bound characteristics, with intense competition in the 770 - 780 yuan/ton range. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [11]