The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been consistently hitting new highs for some time, but this hasn’t encouraged the membership of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Every week, the AAII asks its membership how they feel about the stock market over the next six months. They can answer bullish, bearish, or neutral. The table below shows the SPX along with the four-week average of the bulls minus bears from their survey. You can see the bulls minus bears line is negative, meaning a higher per ...

Group 1 - The Economist has historically acted as a contrarian indicator, accurately predicting market reversals in various sectors, including oil and cryptocurrency [1][9] - Five notable cover stories from 1999 to 2016 on oil prices coincided with market peaks and troughs, demonstrating a pattern where the magazine's predictions often reversed [4][8] - The covers titled "Flood," "End of Oil," and "Cheap Oil" were released at critical market junctures, indicating that when such terms are used, it often signals a trend reversal [9][12] Group 2 - The concept of "cover indicators" suggests that when a company or industry gains significant media attention, it may indicate that the market sentiment has peaked [10][12] - Statistical analysis shows that bearish covers outnumber bullish ones, with a majority of asset prices moving contrary to the sentiment expressed in the covers [13][15] - The average annualized return from following contrarian strategies based on The Economist's covers can reach 10-15%, with a high probability of success [13][15] Group 3 - Recent data from 2024 indicates that contrarian strategies based on The Economist's covers have yielded a success rate of two-thirds and an average return of 13.16% [18] - Specific examples of successful contrarian trades include shorting the VIX index and long positions in the French market ETF, demonstrating the effectiveness of this strategy [19] - The emotional intensity of cover stories often correlates with market opportunities, suggesting that extreme sentiments can signal optimal entry or exit points [20]