Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply-demand drive for plastics is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult to sustain. In November, new production capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical will be released, and supply is expected to increase seasonally. Demand is insufficient compared to the growth rate, and it's hard to form a positive restocking cycle. Consider the long - term high - production cycle of plastics and the risk of a downward shift in the oil price center. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds due to improved macro sentiment or escalated geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is at a high level, and cost support is insufficient. After the National Day, inventory accumulation in the industry chain exceeded expectations, and recent inventory reduction has been slow. In November, the supply pattern will remain loose, and the seasonal peak demand effect is gradually fading. The profit still has room to compress [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Plastics**: This month, plastics opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6830 and 7145, with an amplitude of 315 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This month, PP also opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6530 and 6805, with an amplitude of 275 points [7][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis, monthly spread are weakly running, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level compared to the same period. LLDPE weighted oil gross profit is neutral year - on - year, and the weighted gross profit is at a neutral position in the same period [17][24][26]. - For PP, the profit is moderately high, and the spot price has fallen below the 6000 mark, with insufficient cost support [32][33]. 3.3 Supply - In November, the PE start - up rate has a seasonal upward trend, while the PP start - up rate may remain stable due to insufficient maintenance plans [36][38]. 3.4 Demand - In November, the downstream start - up rate of PE may weaken seasonally, but the start - up rate of agricultural film is seasonally rising. The downstream start - up rate of PP may remain stable [40][42][43]. - From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE was 3358 million tons (cumulative year - on - year +11%), and that of PP was 2981 million tons (year - on - year +13%, with a +12% increase in September) [41][45]. 3.5 Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the import volume was 1000 million tons (year - on - year - 1.8%). In September, the import volume was 102 million tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month +8%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 110 and 116 million tons respectively. - From January to September 2025, the export volume was 83 million tons (year - on - year +30%). In September, the export volume was 10 million tons (year - on - year +64%, month - on - month - 14%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 9.5 and 9.4 million tons respectively. - The import and export of PP are basically balanced, and the current export profit margin has narrowed [48][51][52]. 3.6 Inventory - PE enterprise inventory has significantly decreased, while PP enterprise inventory remains at a high level compared to the same period. Social inventory is being reduced slowly, and the overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The downstream raw material inventory has reached a high level compared to the same period [56][58][60]. 3.7 Strategy - **Plastics**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7100] for L2601. Hold the long LP01 arbitrage. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [6]. - **PP**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6450 - 6750] for PP2601. Short MTO (01) at high prices. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [10]. 3.8 Production Capacity Plan - In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 million tons (year - on - year +17%), with 463 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 120 million tons remaining to be put into production. The planned PP production capacity is 511 million tons (year - on - year +11%), with 456 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 45 million tons remaining to be put into production. - In 2026, the industry is still in a high - production cycle. The probability of PP device delays is relatively high, and opportunities to short the LP05 spread can be considered [35].