发展硬实力跃 升，全国百强镇 焕新丨"百千万 工程"沙田新画 卷上_南方+_南 方plus 晨光掠过狮子洋 的海面，东莞沙 田，这座坐拥大 湾区几何中心、 与大湾区共享日 出日落的港口工 业镇又迎来了一 个新的清晨。与 平静海面形成鲜 明对比的是昼夜 运转的虎门港综 保区，这里满载 货物的车辆往来 不息，宛如流经 心脏的大动脉， 作为东莞生产服 务型国家物流枢 纽，为大湾区带 来持续不断的澎 湃心跳。 党的二十届三中 全会锚定"城乡 融合发展"的中 国式现代化路 径，习近平总书 记对广东走在城 乡区域协调发展 前列的殷殷嘱托 更成为沙田镇前 行的坐标。2025 年上半年，沙田 全镇实现地区生 产总值140.42亿 元，同比增长 7.0%，增速全市 第6，位列中国 综合竞争力百强 镇第59名。 在"百千万工 程"三年初见成 效的关键节点 上，这座全国百 强镇以聚力打造 湾区至美滨海港 城为靶心，在经 济、环境、安全 三大领域稳步发 展，有力有效将 昔日"短板"变 为"潜力板" 。 丙烯成品装置车 间，一包包"工 业大米"打包完 成，即将前往新 的征程。巨正源 是广东省重点聚 丙烯生产企业， 其120万吨/年丙 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply-demand drive for plastics is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult to sustain. In November, new production capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical will be released, and supply is expected to increase seasonally. Demand is insufficient compared to the growth rate, and it's hard to form a positive restocking cycle. Consider the long - term high - production cycle of plastics and the risk of a downward shift in the oil price center. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds due to improved macro sentiment or escalated geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is at a high level, and cost support is insufficient. After the National Day, inventory accumulation in the industry chain exceeded expectations, and recent inventory reduction has been slow. In November, the supply pattern will remain loose, and the seasonal peak demand effect is gradually fading. The profit still has room to compress [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Plastics**: This month, plastics opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6830 and 7145, with an amplitude of 315 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This month, PP also opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6530 and 6805, with an amplitude of 275 points [7][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis, monthly spread are weakly running, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level compared to the same period. LLDPE weighted oil gross profit is neutral year - on - year, and the weighted gross profit is at a neutral position in the same period [17][24][26]. - For PP, the profit is moderately high, and the spot price has fallen below the 6000 mark, with insufficient cost support [32][33]. 3.3 Supply - In November, the PE start - up rate has a seasonal upward trend, while the PP start - up rate may remain stable due to insufficient maintenance plans [36][38]. 3.4 Demand - In November, the downstream start - up rate of PE may weaken seasonally, but the start - up rate of agricultural film is seasonally rising. The downstream start - up rate of PP may remain stable [40][42][43]. - From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE was 3358 million tons (cumulative year - on - year +11%), and that of PP was 2981 million tons (year - on - year +13%, with a +12% increase in September) [41][45]. 3.5 Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the import volume was 1000 million tons (year - on - year - 1.8%). In September, the import volume was 102 million tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month +8%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 110 and 116 million tons respectively. - From January to September 2025, the export volume was 83 million tons (year - on - year +30%). In September, the export volume was 10 million tons (year - on - year +64%, month - on - month - 14%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 9.5 and 9.4 million tons respectively. - The import and export of PP are basically balanced, and the current export profit margin has narrowed [48][51][52]. 3.6 Inventory - PE enterprise inventory has significantly decreased, while PP enterprise inventory remains at a high level compared to the same period. Social inventory is being reduced slowly, and the overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The downstream raw material inventory has reached a high level compared to the same period [56][58][60]. 3.7 Strategy - **Plastics**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7100] for L2601. Hold the long LP01 arbitrage. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [6]. - **PP**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6450 - 6750] for PP2601. Short MTO (01) at high prices. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [10]. 3.8 Production Capacity Plan - In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 million tons (year - on - year +17%), with 463 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 120 million tons remaining to be put into production. The planned PP production capacity is 511 million tons (year - on - year +11%), with 456 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 45 million tons remaining to be put into production. - In 2026, the industry is still in a high - production cycle. The probability of PP device delays is relatively high, and opportunities to short the LP05 spread can be considered [35].