聚烯烃周报： 产业链累库，弱势震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 时 间 2025/11/09 证监许可[2025]75号 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 PE：供需偏弱，盘面弱势寻底 【本周回顾】 本周塑料高开低走，周线2连阴。周一高开16点在6915，随后快速冲至周内高点6939后单边下跌， 至周四早盘跌至周内低点6745后低位反弹，最终收在6802（较上周收盘跌97点或1.4%）。全周在 6745至6939间运行，振幅194点。 【下周展望】 供给承压，盘面或延续弱势寻底。装置陆续重启，国内开工季节性回升，美国资源集中报盘，内外 供给均存增加预期。棚膜季节性旺季，但PE下游综合开工率环比走弱，需求端补库动力不足。企业 库存升至同期高位，供强需弱下后市面临较高的去库压力。综合来看，高投产周期叠加供需季节性 转弱，基本面无上行驱动，前期空头继续持有。考虑到绝对价格偏低，短期单边不追空。 策略： 1）单边：基本面偏弱，空单持有。L2601关注区间【6700-6900】。 风险提示：1）上行风险：原油大幅上涨，宏观利好政策超预期；2）下行风险：原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply-demand drive for plastics is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult to sustain. In November, new production capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical will be released, and supply is expected to increase seasonally. Demand is insufficient compared to the growth rate, and it's hard to form a positive restocking cycle. Consider the long - term high - production cycle of plastics and the risk of a downward shift in the oil price center. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds due to improved macro sentiment or escalated geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is at a high level, and cost support is insufficient. After the National Day, inventory accumulation in the industry chain exceeded expectations, and recent inventory reduction has been slow. In November, the supply pattern will remain loose, and the seasonal peak demand effect is gradually fading. The profit still has room to compress [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Plastics**: This month, plastics opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6830 and 7145, with an amplitude of 315 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This month, PP also opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6530 and 6805, with an amplitude of 275 points [7][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis, monthly spread are weakly running, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level compared to the same period. LLDPE weighted oil gross profit is neutral year - on - year, and the weighted gross profit is at a neutral position in the same period [17][24][26]. - For PP, the profit is moderately high, and the spot price has fallen below the 6000 mark, with insufficient cost support [32][33]. 3.3 Supply - In November, the PE start - up rate has a seasonal upward trend, while the PP start - up rate may remain stable due to insufficient maintenance plans [36][38]. 3.4 Demand - In November, the downstream start - up rate of PE may weaken seasonally, but the start - up rate of agricultural film is seasonally rising. The downstream start - up rate of PP may remain stable [40][42][43]. - From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE was 3358 million tons (cumulative year - on - year +11%), and that of PP was 2981 million tons (year - on - year +13%, with a +12% increase in September) [41][45]. 3.5 Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the import volume was 1000 million tons (year - on - year - 1.8%). In September, the import volume was 102 million tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month +8%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 110 and 116 million tons respectively. - From January to September 2025, the export volume was 83 million tons (year - on - year +30%). In September, the export volume was 10 million tons (year - on - year +64%, month - on - month - 14%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 9.5 and 9.4 million tons respectively. - The import and export of PP are basically balanced, and the current export profit margin has narrowed [48][51][52]. 3.6 Inventory - PE enterprise inventory has significantly decreased, while PP enterprise inventory remains at a high level compared to the same period. Social inventory is being reduced slowly, and the overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The downstream raw material inventory has reached a high level compared to the same period [56][58][60]. 3.7 Strategy - **Plastics**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7100] for L2601. Hold the long LP01 arbitrage. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [6]. - **PP**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6450 - 6750] for PP2601. Short MTO (01) at high prices. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [10]. 3.8 Production Capacity Plan - In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 million tons (year - on - year +17%), with 463 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 120 million tons remaining to be put into production. The planned PP production capacity is 511 million tons (year - on - year +11%), with 456 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 45 million tons remaining to be put into production. - In 2026, the industry is still in a high - production cycle. The probability of PP device delays is relatively high, and opportunities to short the LP05 spread can be considered [35].