1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand fundamental, but geopolitical conflicts support the raw material shrinkage expectation, and the cost - end pressure is still being transmitted. The market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflict changes, export order execution, and ethylene - based enterprise load changes [3]. - The caustic soda market has slightly improved in supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the actual execution of export orders, the conversion of some 32% caustic soda to 50% caustic soda in Shandong, and the price trend of 32% caustic soda. The futures price has a large premium over the spot price and the volatility has increased [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 5,229 yuan/ton (-237); the East China basis is -79 yuan/ton (-313); the South China basis is 111 yuan/ton (-273) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,150 yuan/ton (-550); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,340 yuan/ton (-510) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,730 yuan/ton (+25); the calcium carbide profit is -108 yuan/ton (+25); the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is -159 yuan/ton (+279); the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is -283 yuan/ton (-294); the PVC export profit is 97.9 US dollars/ton (+122.7) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 45.8 tons (-4.6); the social PVC inventory is 63.6 tons (+2.0); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.41% (-1.36%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 77.24% (-3.16%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.42% (-1.93%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 89.0 tons (+11.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2,327 yuan/ton (-115); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -280 yuan/ton (+115) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 655 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,039 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 563.7 yuan/ton (+0.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 421.66 yuan/ton (-585.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 866.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 55.00 tons (+0.91); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.80 tons (-0.60); the caustic soda operation rate is 86.40% (+1.50%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 82.62% (-0.10%); the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 42.46% (+18.12%); the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 90.09% (+1.66%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Export situation: Export tax rebates for PVC have been cancelled since April 1st, and upstream export orders were concentrated before the festival until March. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, leading to a weak long - term export expectation. However, due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, overseas cracking units have reduced their loads, the raw material supply of ethylene - based PVC has tightened, and some overseas units have reduced their loads, improving the export expectation [3]. - Supply situation: Some domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply limitations, and the expectation of unit load reduction has increased. Yantai Wanhua has newly entered maintenance this week [3]. - Demand situation: Downstream operation is gradually recovering, but the social inventory continues to accumulate and is at a high level compared to the same period. PVC warehouse receipts also remain at a high level in the same period, and the spot supply pressure caused by the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March has increased [3]. - Overall situation: The supply - demand fundamental of PVC is weak, but geopolitical conflicts support the expectation of raw material shrinkage, the raw material cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and the cost - end pressure is still being transmitted. Coupled with the recovery of downstream operation, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the positive macro - expectation of the Two Sessions, the market sentiment has improved [3]. Caustic Soda - Export situation: Due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units are expected to reduce their loads due to cost increases, driving an increase in export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed up slightly [3]. - Supply situation: The operation rate has increased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period. The planned maintenance enterprises in March may change [3]. - Demand situation: The non - aluminum industries' operation has recovered after the festival, bringing an increase in rigid demand procurement. However, some alumina plants have carried out maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in operation. The anti - involution in the alumina industry has dragged down the long - term caustic soda demand expectation, and the commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed. Caustic soda inventory has accumulated in Shandong and Jiangsu [3]. - Cost situation: The operation of the liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, the liquid chlorine price has increased, and the cost support for caustic soda has weakened [3]. - Overall situation: The supply - demand situation of caustic soda has improved slightly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the actual execution of export orders, the conversion of some 32% caustic soda to 50% caustic soda in Shandong, and the price trend of 32% caustic soda. The futures price has a large premium over the spot price and the volatility has increased [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]