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高盛交易员的市场观察:这个夏天真正的主角是中国股市
美股IPO· 2025-08-31 01:54
值得注意的是,尽管标普500指数成分股公司第二季度营收同比增长4.8%,但经汇率调整后,销售增长速度有所放缓。尤其是中小型公司的实际营收出 现负增长。 从现在到年底,流动性风险的管理将成为美联储和投资者的重要关注点。7月的FOMC会议纪要提到,TGA(财政账户)重建可能会影响货币市场的波 动和资金状况。尤其是随着TGA重建和SLR(杠杆率规定)规则变化的交替,以及量化紧缩(QT)结束,这些都值得关注。 高盛认为,QT可能会在 10月结束,因为资金压力加剧。 欧洲市场:意大利和法国风险溢价缩小 高盛顶级交易员Mark Wilson指出,2025年夏季中国股市成为最意外亮点。中国股市表现超出预期,如今沪指破十年新高,散户融资近2015年峰值,成 交额连续12天超2万亿元创纪录。而从更长周期来看,中国股市的净多头仓位仍处于较低水平,5年区间仅处56分位。 高盛交易员Mark Wilson近日指出,回顾2025年迄今的表现,中国股市无疑是夏季最大的亮点之一。中国股市表现远超预期,成为市场中最出色的交易 机会之一。 Wilson提到,中国股市依然保持低估值,持仓比例偏低,而交易动能持续增强。这种市场状态本身可能推动股市 ...
高盛交易员的市场观察:这个夏天真正的主角是中国股市
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-30 08:51
Group 1: Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market has significantly outperformed expectations this summer, becoming one of the most surprising trading opportunities in the market [1][2] - The market remains undervalued with low net long positions, while trading momentum continues to strengthen, potentially creating a self-reinforcing effect [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, and retail investor financing balances are nearing the peak levels seen during the 2015 market bubble [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been a key driver for the U.S. stock market's rise, with an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September [5] - Despite a 4.8% year-over-year revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2, sales growth has slowed when adjusted for exchange rates, particularly for small-cap companies [5] - Managing liquidity risk will be crucial for both the Federal Reserve and investors as the year progresses, especially with the potential end of quantitative tightening (QT) in October [5] Group 3: European Market - There has been a structural change in the European market this summer, with the risk premium between core and peripheral countries narrowing, particularly between Italian BTPs and French OATs [6][7] - Political instability in Europe adds uncertainty to the market, with potential risks from political events in France and the Netherlands [7] - European bank stocks have risen by 52% this year, prompting investors to consider how to protect their gains amid changing political and interest rate conditions [7]