电力 甘肃首推省级发电侧容量电价，煤电固定成本全额补偿 本周行情回顾：本周（7.14-7.18）上证指数报收 3534.48 点，上涨 0.69%， 沪深 300 指数报收 4058.55 点，上涨 1.09%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 3016.43 点，下跌 0.65%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.74pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 25 位。 个股方面，电力及公用事业板块上市公司超半数下跌。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 本周行业观点： ⚫ 容量核定： （1）容量需求：按当年系统净负荷曲线的最大值所在时刻对应 的省内用电负荷、外送容量需求、备用容量之和减去可中断负荷 容量计算确定。 （2）有效容量：煤电机组的有效容量根据铭牌容量扣除厂用电 后确定；电网侧新型储能的有效容量根据满功率放电时长/6× 额定功率并扣除厂用电后后确定；风电、光伏机组的有效容量根 据装机容量扣除厂用电后的 7%、1%确定。水电机组的有效容 量根据装机容量扣除厂用电后，蓄水式按 98%、径流式按 32% 确定。 （3）容量供需系数：容量需求与有效容量的比值 ...

Wind资讯数据显示，截至7月16日，A股市场已有12家火电板块上市公司发布了2025年上半年业绩预 告。其中，有8家公司预计报告期内实现净利润同比增长，另有3家公司预计扭亏为盈。多家上市公司表 示，动力煤价格降低是其上半年盈利能力提升的主要因素。 7月15日，广东宝丽华新能源股份有限公司发布上半年业绩预告显示，预计报告期内实现净利润5.2亿元 至5.8亿元，同比增长42.08%至58.48%。公司董秘办相关人士在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，广 东省全社会用电量同比增长，带动公司发电量、上网电量同步增加。同时，受煤炭价格下行影响，公司 电力主业营业成本有所下降，双重利好共同推动了公司利润的提升。 "今年上半年，煤炭价格持续下行，有效降低了火电企业成本。与此同时，尽管部分地区电价同比下 滑，但煤价降幅远大于电价调整幅度，价差持续扩大，助力火电企业实现了盈利修复。"苏商银行特约 研究员高政扬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 值得关注的是，甘肃省发展和改革委员会近日发布《甘肃省关于建立发电侧容量电价机制的通知（征求 意见稿）》明确，市场初期，煤电机组、电网侧新型储能容量电价标准暂按每年每千瓦330元执行，执 ...

Macro - In June 2025, China's export growth rate rose to 5.8%, driven by resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" strategies towards the U.S. [4] - Looking ahead, the postponement of tariff deadlines to August 1 may sustain demand for Chinese exports, although global trade volumes are expected to decline if tariff policies are fully implemented [4] - Overall, China's exports may face slight pressure in the second half of the year, primarily due to a decline in global trade volumes rather than direct exports to the U.S. [4] Banking - In June 2025, loan issuance surged, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans for the first half of the year; corporate loans played a stabilizing role while retail credit showed seasonal growth [5] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of May [5] - M1 and M2 growth rates were revised upward, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing, indicating potential for continued positive performance in the banking sector [5] Materials - The price of polysilicon has increased for the first time in three months, while the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached a 19-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [6] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo by three months highlights ongoing strategic value in rare earth materials [6] Energy - Gansu Province has released a draft notice on establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation, which is expected to benefit thermal power across the country, especially in regions with high wind and solar capacity [7] Company Updates - Chengzhi Shareholding (000990.SZ) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit of 15 million to 22 million yuan, down 88.24% to 91.98% year-on-year [8] - Aohua Endoscopy (688212.SH) has received domestic certification for its new generation 4K ultra-high-definition endoscope system AQ-400 series, which is expected to drive growth upon market launch [9] - Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) has received approval for its Qifang Nasal Tablets in Macau, marking a significant achievement in its R&D efforts, with expectations for improved performance throughout 2025 [10]