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甘肃首推省级发电侧容量电价,煤电固定成本全额补偿
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 09:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power sector, particularly emphasizing the benefits for coal-fired power plants due to the new capacity pricing mechanism in Gansu [10][11]. Core Insights - Gansu has introduced a provincial capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, fully compensating fixed costs for coal power, which is expected to enhance the value of flexible coal power resources [10][11]. - The high penetration of renewable energy in Gansu, with wind and solar power accounting for nearly 40% of total generation, has driven the need for capacity support and system regulation, prompting the new pricing policy [5][10]. - The report suggests that regions with high renewable energy ratios will likely follow Gansu's lead in increasing capacity prices, benefiting coal power's revenue model that includes capacity and ancillary services [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent performance of the power sector, noting that over half of the listed companies in the electricity and public utilities sector experienced declines [2][6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69% during the week, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, contrasting with a 0.65% drop in the CITIC Power and Utilities Index [6][62]. Capacity Pricing Mechanism - Gansu's new capacity pricing mechanism includes coal power and grid-side new energy storage, with an initial price set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for two years [9][10]. - The effective capacity for coal power is determined by the nameplate capacity minus auxiliary power consumption, while new energy storage is calculated based on discharge duration and rated power [4][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a rebound in coal prices to 639 yuan per ton, which may impact the operational costs of coal-fired power plants [17]. - The Three Gorges Reservoir's inflow and outflow have significantly decreased, with inflow down 46.15% and outflow down 58.25% year-on-year [39]. Renewable Energy Insights - The report indicates an increase in silicon material prices, with the current price at 37 yuan per kg, and mainstream silicon wafer prices rising to 1.17 yuan per piece [50]. - The carbon market saw a slight decline in trading prices, with a 0.53% decrease noted during the reporting period [57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal power companies with flexible earnings, such as Huaneng International and Huadian International, as well as green electricity operators with undervalued stocks [10][11].