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海外债市“风波”难平,长债利率屡创新高
Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed markets, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks in various economies [1][3][4] Supply Side: "Fiscal Expansion" Leading to Imbalance - The current surge in long-term bond yields reflects a severe imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by fiscal expansion pressures in major economies [4] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by fiscal year 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [4][5] - France's government is facing challenges in reducing its deficit, with proposed budget cuts meeting public resistance, which could further strain its fiscal position [5][6] Demand Side: Investors Reacting to Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are leading to increased selling of long-term bonds, with a notable decline in demand from traditional holders such as central banks and insurance companies [9][10] - The structure of bondholders is shifting, with a decrease in the proportion of "non-price sensitive" buyers, leading to heightened volatility in bond markets [10] - The demand for long-term bonds is being negatively impacted by reduced purchases from foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, which are significant holders of U.S. debt [9][10] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a focus on short-term U.S. Treasury rates, anticipating a continuation of the steepening yield curve, although the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [11] - The current market dynamics indicate that while short-term yields may rise, long-term yields could face resistance at key levels, particularly around the 5% mark for 30-year bonds [11]