2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

Group 1: US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index is stable above 98, potentially recording the largest weekly gain in two months, as US economic growth data diminishes expectations for further Fed easing this year [1] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October has risen to approximately 12%, up from 8.1% the previous day; the cumulative rate cut expectation for the year has decreased to less than 40 basis points [1] - The upcoming release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated, with a year-on-year increase forecasted at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July [1] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Expectations - The Japanese yen has become one of the worst-performing currencies this week, dropping to an eight-week low due to its sensitivity to Fed's hawkish re-pricing, with market expectations for a 14 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [1] - The overall inflation rate in Japan for September decreased to 2.5%, below the expected 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March [1] - ING predicts that the strong dollar will partially reverse if the market reaffirms expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the yen likely benefiting [2] Group 3: UK Economic Concerns and Currency Impact - The British pound has declined nearly 1% this week, following a 0.6% drop last week, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the month, driven by concerns over the UK's long-term fiscal outlook [3] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged, marking the largest single-day increase since early July, reflecting market worries about fiscal conditions [3] - The UK Chancellor is expected to present a budget in November that may include additional tax measures to maintain fiscal rules and gain bond market trust, amid rising borrowing costs and high inflation limiting the Bank of England's rate cut capacity [3]

随着投资者关注债券供应的变化并在抛售后寻求低价买入机会，全球长期债券的压力正在缓解。数据显 示，自9月初以来，美国和日本30年期国债收益率均下跌约20个基点，而英国国债收益率下降逾10个基 点。这扭转了此前一段时间的大规模抛售行情，该抛售曾扰乱了全球最大规模的政府债券市场，推动日 本长期国债收益率创下历史新高，同时令英国国债收益率升至自1998年以来的最高水平。 长期债券的此次反弹在一定程度上受到供应减少的推动，因为一些国家的财政部将发行重点转向成本更 低的短期债券。日本财务省已提议在即将举行的拍卖中减少长期债发行量。英国央行宣布，从下个月开 始，在其量化紧缩(QT)计划中降低长期债抛售占比。澳大利亚的债务管理机构则此前表示，将考虑减少 超长期债的发行。 Aberdeen基金经理Matthew Amis表示："债券收益率曲线在夏季的大幅趋陡走势已经放缓并开始逆转。 长期债券不会有太多供应。" 供应端的变化正在推动市场的广泛重新思考。TS Lombard策略师称，供应"修正"为英国和日本债券创造 了买入机会。花旗集团和美国银行的策略师已经退出此前对长期美债将跑输的交易建议。 长期债券市场前景出现一定乐观情绪的回 ...

今年以来，英国国债持续承压，根源在于英国财政大臣蕾切尔里夫斯需为11月即将公布的预算案填补资 金缺口。尽管本月长期国债收益率飙升至数十年高位，但在此前的国债拍卖中，市场需求始终保持稳 定。五年期与三十年期国债接连遇冷，成为市场对英国新发行国债信心松动的首个信号。 英国最新一轮五年期国债拍卖出现近两年来最低超额认购率，这一现象再次表明，尽管英国国债收益率 处于高位，但受财政前景担忧影响，仍难以吸引投资者入场。 此次英国债务管理办公室计划发行47.5亿英镑(约合64亿美元)2030年到期的国债，最终获得的认购金额 为发行规模的2.80倍。而就在此前的周二，英国30年期国债发行同样遇冷，认购量创下2022年以来最 低。 不过，从另一项衡量需求的指标来看，此次五年期国债发行表现仍优于周二的长期国债。衡量国债拍卖 需求的关键指标"投标价差"(即加权平均中标价与最低中标价的差值)显示，本次五年期国债的投标价差 为0.4个基点，处于健康区间;而此前三十年期国债的投标价差则为1.4个基点。这一差异也缓解了二级市 场的反应，截至目前，五年期英国国债收益率稳定在4.10%。 接下来，投资者将重点关注周四举行的九年期与十三年期英国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Chief Economist Huw Pill advocates for a faster reduction of the central bank's large bond balance sheet accumulated under quantitative easing (QE), suggesting that the market is stronger than previously thought and that the central bank has robust tools to support it in case of market stress [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current "UK bond storm" is primarily due to the loss of the Bank of England as a major buyer, leading to increased volatility and weaker demand for long-dated gilt bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which saw yields rise to a new high of 5.7% in early September [2][5] - Pill expressed dissent against the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from £100 billion to £70 billion, arguing that market demand is stronger than other officials believe [2][5] Group 2: Quantitative Easing and Financial Impact - The Bank of England still holds nearly £600 billion in UK government bonds, despite ongoing QT efforts, which include actively selling bonds and not reinvesting the principal of maturing bonds [5][6] - Since the Bank of England raised the base rate above 2%, its asset portfolio has incurred losses of approximately £93 billion, erasing most of the £124 billion profit gained since 2009, and is projected to result in taxpayer losses exceeding £100 billion over the project's lifecycle [6][10] Group 3: Policy and Governance - Pill emphasized the need for well-designed government fiscal rules to address the large capital flows resulting from past QE decisions, indicating that the complexities arising from QE are not the central bank's responsibility [6][10] - The UK Treasury has lost 75% of the profits previously gained through QE, highlighting the significant financial implications of the current monetary policy environment [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the Bank of England's upcoming 12-month quantitative tightening (QT) plan starting in October, which will prioritize the sale of short- and medium-term UK government bonds [1] - Edward Allenby from Oxford Economics indicates that the Bank of England is focusing on short- and medium-term bonds due to more significant pressure signals in these markets compared to long-term bonds [1] - This strategy aims to effectively manage liquidity contraction while minimizing potential impacts on long-term interest rates and financial market stability, reflecting a cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently at 1.3461, down 0.05% from the previous close of 1.3468, following a pullback from an 11-week high of 1.3726 [1] - The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) is at 1.3524, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above the 50 midline, suggesting that buyers may still expect this pullback to be short-term [1] - For a meaningful rebound, GBP/USD needs to close above the supply zone of 1.3600-1.3620 on the daily candlestick chart [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate level, reflecting its policy dilemma between a weak labor market and persistent inflation pressures [1] - Early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle could further elevate inflation expectations, while maintaining high rates for an extended period may suppress consumption and investment, increasing economic downturn risks [1] - For ordinary investors, this policy stance suggests that interest rates on savings products may remain stable in the short term, but mortgage rates will stay high, making repayment pressures difficult to alleviate [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with the "Evening Star" pattern prompting a drop below 1.3500, increasing the likelihood of testing the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.3477/63 [2] - A daily closing price below this convergence would clear the path for testing the low of 1.3332 from September 3, while a closing price above 1.3600 could reinforce the rationale for challenging the annual peak of 1.3788 [2]

Group 1: Core Investment Strategy - HSBC emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation across asset classes, industries, and regions to enhance portfolio resilience in a changing environment [1][2] - The bank anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December and March, potentially lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% by the end of next year [2] - HSBC recommends investing in high-quality bonds to prepare for the new round of rate cuts, highlighting the opportunity to lock in current yields before further declines in cash rates [2] Group 2: Regional Diversification - HSBC maintains a positive outlook on global equities, particularly in the US, Asia, and the UAE, with a focus on Singapore stocks due to their defensive advantages and attractive dividends [3] - The bank has adjusted its view on Indian stocks from positive to neutral due to short-term cyclical headwinds, while remaining optimistic about the growth prospects in Asian markets [3] - The favorable environment for corporate earnings in the US, driven by AI and economic growth, supports HSBC's positive stance on US equities [3] Group 3: AI and Sector Opportunities - HSBC expresses a strong positive outlook on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence, noting its potential to enhance productivity and create new revenue streams [4][5] - The demand for digital infrastructure is accelerating the adoption of AI applications, with the industrial sector becoming a strategic focus globally [5] - HSBC identifies attractive investment opportunities in the information technology, communication, industrial, and financial sectors in the US, while focusing on non-essential consumer goods, finance, communication, and healthcare in Asia [5]

| 端 英国1年期国债 | | 3.9250 | 3.9220 | 3.9520 | 3.9190 | +0.0030 | +0.08% | 16:13:59 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 英国2年期国债 | | 3.9820 | 3.9770 | 4.0080 | 3.9730 | +0.0050 | +0.13% | 16:13:59 0 | | 品 英国3年期国债 | | 3.9770 | 3.9670 | 3.9980 | 3.9690 | +0.0100 | +0.25% | 16:13:59 0 | | - 英国4年期国债 | | 4.0570 | 4.0380 | 4.0740 | 4.0480 | +0.0190 | +0.47% | 16:13:59 0 | | ਜ਼ਿੰ | 英国5年期国债 | 4.1270 | 4.1070 | 4.1460 | 4.1200 | +0.0200 | +0.49% | 0 16:13:59 | | 端 英国6年期国债 | | 4.2900 | 4.2620 | ...

Group 1: UK Economic Situation - UK public sector net borrowing surged to £18 billion in August, the highest level for the month in five years, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of £12.8 billion [1] - The increase in borrowing is expected to pressure the UK government to consider cuts in public spending or tax increases in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose over 1% to nearly 5.50%, reflecting heightened concerns over fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - UK retail sales data for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, surpassing forecasts of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The strong performance in retail sales was driven by robust demand from online retailers and textile, clothing, and footwear stores [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its interest rate at 4% with a 7-2 majority vote, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation [2] - The BoE confirmed that inflation pressures are expected to peak around 4% in September [2] - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower interest rates two more times this year, following a recent cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [4] Group 4: Currency Market Dynamics - The British pound faced significant selling pressure, dropping to around 1.3500 against the US dollar, influenced by a stronger dollar and the recent retail sales data [4][6] - The pound's decline was exacerbated by a breakdown below the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Key support for GBP/USD is at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is at the July 1 high of 1.3800 [6]