智通财经APP获悉，周二，从美国到法国和英国的长期债券价格大幅下跌，延续了今年因投资者对通胀 和政府开支的担忧加剧而引发的抛售潮。 在特朗普推动解除美联储理事莉萨·库克职务之后，30 年期美国国债的收益率上升至 4.9%。在英国，同 样期限的国债收益率接近 27 年来的最高点，而日本的国债收益率则已接近历史最高水平。与此同时， 由于法国总理宣布将举行信任投票，投资者也推高了法国的借贷成本。 这些举措出于不同的原因而相继发生，却共同凸显了今年令债券投资者深感忧虑的一系列问题：美联储 独立性的削弱、政治动荡以及不断扩大的财政赤字。 杰富瑞公司外汇业务全球主管Brad Bechtel表示："全球债券市场的长期端正面临压力。"他还指出，日 本 30 年期国债收益率的"持续攀升"无疑正在加大对全球其他地区的压力。 美国国债 周二，5 年期和 30 年期美国国债收益率之间的差距扩大了 7 个基点，达到 117 个基点——这是自 2021 年以来的最大涨幅。彭博美元现货指数下跌了 0.2%。 投资者和策略师们猜测，如果特朗普成功让库克被一位更倾向于降低借贷成本的政策制定者所取代，那 么物价压力可能会进一步加剧。Neuber ...

30年期英债收益率累跌9.1个基点，50年期英债收益率累跌7.2个基点。 2/10年期英债收益率利差累跌2.009个基点，报+72.978个基点。 周五（8月1日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率跌4.1个基点，报4.528%，本周累计下跌10.8个基 点。 两年期英债收益率跌6.8个基点，报3.793%，北京时间20:30发布美国非农就业报告前，于窄幅震荡行情 中刷新日高至3.917%，数据发布后跳水至接近3.840%，22:00发布美国ISM制造业指数后刷新日低至 3.790%，本周累跌9.0个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The UK's budget deficit has risen to £20.7 billion ($27.9 billion), an increase of £6.6 billion compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding market expectations of £17.5 billion [1] - The surge in debt interest payments is a primary factor contributing to the increased budget deficit, raising concerns about potential tax hikes to stabilize public finances [1] - Following the report, UK government bonds experienced a decline, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 3 basis points to 4.63%, outpacing declines in German and US bonds [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1446.940, increasing by 24.700 or 1.74% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1294.303, increasing by 14.188 or 1.11% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3373.100, increasing by 17.400 or 0.52% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 38.845, increasing by 0.420 or 1.09% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.165, increasing by 0.20% [4] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.346, increasing by 0.37% [4] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.755, decreasing by 0.72% [4] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, increasing by 0.11% [4] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.800, decreasing by 0.15% [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 118578.140, increasing by 1313.020 or 1.12% [5] - Litecoin is priced at 118.370, increasing by 1.780 or 1.53% [5] - Ethereum is priced at 3811.020, increasing by 54.330 or 1.45% [5] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.552, increasing by 0.099 or 2.86% [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.848 [7] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.913, decreasing by 0.048 or 1.21% [8] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.376, decreasing by 0.055 or 1.24% [8] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.950, decreasing by 0.049 or 0.98% [8] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.627, decreasing by 0.047 or 1.01% [8] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.633, decreasing by 0.059 or 2.19% [8] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.329, decreasing by 0.068 or 2.00% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.510, decreasing by 0.068 or 1.90% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.522, decreasing by 0.037 or 2.37% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that UK government bond yields are rising faster than those of other European countries, indicating investor avoidance of UK bonds due to the challenging economic conditions of high inflation and a weak labor market [1] Economic Conditions - Recent data shows an increase in UK inflation alongside a weak labor market, leading to a sell-off of UK government bonds [1] - The combination of declining GDP, rising inflation, and a weak labor market is expected to further hinder the performance of the UK bond market compared to other European nations in the remaining summer months [1] Investor Behavior - XTB analysts suggest that the rapid increase in UK bond yields compared to European counterparts reflects a potential shift in investor sentiment, with a preference to avoid UK government bonds [1]

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING analysts indicates that if French Prime Minister Borne fails to implement spending cuts to reduce the budget deficit, the euro may face downward pressure [1] Group 1: Spending Cuts and Budget Deficit - Prime Minister Borne is expected to announce a plan to cut spending by €40 billion in an upcoming fiscal consolidation plan [1] - The failure of the spending cut plan could negatively impact local fixed income products and the foreign exchange market, similar to recent events in the UK [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Recent policy reversals by the UK government regarding welfare reforms have raised new concerns about its fiscal situation, leading to significant declines in UK government bonds and the pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - A policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, and investors should adopt an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields breach critical levels, triggering a market collapse [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from fiscal detox to unrestrained spending, creating a "beautiful bubble" to cover massive bills, with risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies responding positively [2][9]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is a key catalyst for the current rally, as evidenced by the low levels of volatility in both bond and stock markets [2][12]. - Hartnett suggests maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the US 30-year Treasury, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Hartnett emphasizes that bonds are the least favored asset class, with the trading logic of "Anything but Bonds" gaining traction globally [4]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen by 114%, outperforming other asset classes, while US Treasuries have declined by 1% [5]. - The ratio of European stocks to bonds has surpassed 2000 highs, indicating the end of a long-term deflationary era in Europe and Japan [5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - The surge in US debt issuance is projected to push total debt beyond $50 trillion by 2032, with demand declining until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett warns that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to a "beautiful bubble" financed by massive deficits [9][11]. - A long-term bearish trend for the US dollar is anticipated, with recommendations to increase allocations to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets in the latter half of the 2020s [11]. Group 4: Market Signals and Investor Sentiment - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12][13]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a typical profit-taking or summer pullback if it shows extreme optimism [12]. - Hartnett highlights a divergence in market sentiment, with macro strategists fearing a bond market sell-off while equity and credit market participants remain optimistic due to anticipated economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [13][14]. Group 5: Policy Environment - The global policy environment remains accommodative, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates, supporting risk appetite [14]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the US compared to 2024, upcoming tax cuts in 2026 and increasing fiscal stimulus from Europe and NATO are expected to provide effective counterbalances [14]. - The consensus is that any negative macro impacts from US tariff increases will be quickly mitigated, reinforcing investor risk appetite and driving the ongoing global stock market rally [14].

Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, suggests a policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, advocating for an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields hit critical levels, potentially triggering a market crash [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hartnett describes a fundamental shift in market logic, comparing the Trump administration's fiscal approach to moving from a "detox" mode to an unrestrained "gorge" mode, leading to a significant embrace of large-scale spending [1]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is identified as a key catalyst for the current market rally, with volatility measures (MOVE and VIX) at their lowest since February 19 [1]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Hartnett's trading advice emphasizes maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the U.S., 5.6% for the U.K., and 3.2% for Japan [3]. - The current market sentiment is summarized as "buy the election, sell the inauguration," indicating a rotation strategy rather than withdrawal from the market [4]. - The "Anything but Bonds" trading logic is gaining traction globally, with gold being the best-performing asset over the past decade, up 114%, while U.S. Treasuries have declined by 1% [4][5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that U.S. debt issuance will surge, pushing total debt past $50 trillion by 2032, with demand expected to decline until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett argues that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to the creation of a "beautiful bubble" to manage the massive fiscal deficits [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of market bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a market correction if it shows extreme optimism, such as cash levels below 4% or over 90% of respondents expecting a "soft landing" [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that as long as policy support remains, risk appetite will persist, with no immediate "policy dragon" to disrupt the market [13].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1372.340, up by 11.790 or 0.87% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1244.836, up by 50.257 or 4.21% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3365.400, up by 32.400 or 0.97% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 38.415, up by 0.790 or 2.10% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.170, increasing by 0.04% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.351, decreasing by 0.48% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.015, increasing by 0.53% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.658, decreasing by 0.07% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, decreasing by 0.13% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 117453.350, up by 1443.350 or 1.24% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 96.000, up by 1.150 or 1.21% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 2985.910, up by 34.610 or 1.17% [4] - Ripple is priced at 2.727, up by 0.180 or 7.08% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.895, up by 0.027 or 0.70% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.971, up by 0.040 or 1.02% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.398, up by 0.041 or 0.94% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.920, up by 0.058 or 1.19% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.628, up by 0.027 or 0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.683, up by 0.021 or 0.79% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.411, up by 0.020 or 0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.605, up by 0.024 or 0.67% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.529, up by 0.038 or 2.55% [7]