债务-利息恶性循环

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海外债市“风波”难平 长债利率屡创新高
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-12 16:12
Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed economies, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks [1][4][5] Group 1: Long-term Bond Yields - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is approaching 5.0%, while the UK, Germany, France, and Japan have also seen their 30-year bond yields rise to levels not seen in years, with the UK reaching 5.7%, Germany at 3.4%, France at 4.5%, and Japan surpassing 3.15% for the first time [1][4] - The increase in yields is attributed to a combination of fiscal expansion pressures and a lack of confidence in the fiscal discipline of major economies, particularly in Europe and Japan [4][5] Group 2: Supply-Side Factors - The expansion of fiscal policies in developed economies is leading to an imbalance in the supply of long-term bonds, increasing government debt burdens and pushing yields higher [5][6] - As of August 11, the US federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, arriving five years earlier than previously predicted, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by the 2025 fiscal year [5][6] Group 3: Demand-Side Factors - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are causing investors to sell off long-term bonds, leading to a deterioration in demand structure, including reduced government purchases and declining foreign investment [10][11] - Traditional long-term bond holders, such as central banks and insurance companies, are becoming more sensitive to interest rates, shifting their preferences towards shorter-duration bonds [11][12] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities to go long on short-term US Treasury rates due to expected rate cuts, the overall trend of rising long-term yields is likely to continue [12] - The yield curve is currently exhibiting a "bear steepening" phenomenon, with both short and long-term rates rising, but the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [12]
海外债市“风波”难平,长债利率屡创新高
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-12 08:47
Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed markets, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks in various economies [1][3][4] Supply Side: "Fiscal Expansion" Leading to Imbalance - The current surge in long-term bond yields reflects a severe imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by fiscal expansion pressures in major economies [4] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by fiscal year 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [4][5] - France's government is facing challenges in reducing its deficit, with proposed budget cuts meeting public resistance, which could further strain its fiscal position [5][6] Demand Side: Investors Reacting to Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are leading to increased selling of long-term bonds, with a notable decline in demand from traditional holders such as central banks and insurance companies [9][10] - The structure of bondholders is shifting, with a decrease in the proportion of "non-price sensitive" buyers, leading to heightened volatility in bond markets [10] - The demand for long-term bonds is being negatively impacted by reduced purchases from foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, which are significant holders of U.S. debt [9][10] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a focus on short-term U.S. Treasury rates, anticipating a continuation of the steepening yield curve, although the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [11] - The current market dynamics indicate that while short-term yields may rise, long-term yields could face resistance at key levels, particularly around the 5% mark for 30-year bonds [11]