炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "做投资一定要实事求是"。 "我是一个坚定的逆向投资的信仰者和践行者。" 淡水泉创始人赵军在跟淡水泉（香港）总裁陶冬最新的一场对话中如是说。 风格非常"赵军"。记得2018年一次机缘巧合跟赵军有过近4个小时的深度交流，在2019年聪明投资者主 办霍华德·马克斯《问道·周期》论坛时，我们在致辞中还引用过他当时交流的一句话，"相信美好的事情 总是会发生"。 那种实事求是的态度和骨子里的积极乐观，在这些年对淡水泉持续跟踪关注时，一直有感受到。 回到对话内容本身，赵军跟陶冬一起复盘了2025年并重点展望2026年的投资机会。 2025年淡水泉的业绩在行业内中上，在管理规模同体量的公司中堪称优秀。但赵军自评，"依然错过了 不少本可以更好把握的机会"，而机会的溜走往往不是某一个人、某一个环节的问题，产业组、实盘基 金经理、宏观主题团队的任何疏漏，都可能让本该属于组合的收益擦肩而过。 这种总结也很"淡水泉"，组织感很强，会把改进空间落回到团队协同与方法迭代上。 谈到2026年，赵军给出的判断：一是市场对中国资产的情绪在升温，且2025年的行情在某种程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue emphasizes a pragmatic and optimistic investment approach, focusing on identifying and leveraging "expectation gaps" in low-attention assets as key investment opportunities for 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - Investor sentiment towards Chinese assets is warming, with expectations for a "slow bull" market emerging as macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns become less pressing [5][9]. - The market logic is shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, necessitating a more nuanced understanding of industry and company performance [5][9]. - Liquidity is expected to be a significant supportive factor for the stock market, with both institutional and individual investors showing increased willingness to allocate funds to equities [13][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The focus for the next 6-12 months is on identifying "expectation gaps" in various sectors, particularly in low-attention assets that have not been fully recognized by the market [6][16]. - Key areas of interest include AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumer trends, with a particular emphasis on structural opportunities that arise from supply-demand constraints [7][22]. - The commodity bull market narrative is being driven by AI and material demand, with potential investment opportunities in mining and exploration sectors expected to yield significant returns [25]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The concept of "new consumption" is evolving, with structural changes in consumer demographics and preferences creating new investment opportunities [27][28]. - The "people, place, and goods" framework is used to analyze consumption opportunities, highlighting the importance of understanding consumer behavior and market connections [28][29]. - Sustainable growth in consumer sectors is anticipated, particularly in areas that cater to younger and older demographics, as well as products that enhance personal satisfaction [30][31]. Group 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - The importance of recognizing crowded trades and consensus risks is emphasized, as these can lead to market volatility when expectations shift [32]. - Developing investment contingency plans and maintaining a proactive approach to market changes are crucial for navigating uncertainties [33]. - The company advocates for a team-based investment approach, leveraging diverse expertise to adapt to complex market scenarios [37].