诺和诺德股价大涨。 当地时间12月23日，美股主要指数小幅走低，截至发稿，道指跌0.06%，纳指跌0.16%，标普500指数跌 0.06%。 当天，美国商务部公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值环比按年率计算增长 4.3%。数据显示，当季美国出口和消费支出有所增长，但投资和进口均出现下降。 这份数据远超3.2%的市场预期，令市场担心美联储在2026年初降息的可能性降低。芝加哥商品交易所 美联储观察工具的数据显示，报告发布后，联邦基金利率期货交易员略微增加了押注，认为美联储将在 明年1月和3月的议息会议上维持利率不变。 个股方面，诺和诺德大涨，盘中一度涨超10%。消息面上，美国FDA批准了诺和诺德的首款口服GLP-1 减肥药。诺和诺德方面表示，这款口服药预计将于2026年初正式上市，起始剂量的现金价格为每月149 美元。公司同时表示，对于拥有保险的患者，在涵盖所有剂量的情况下，每月费用可能低至25美元。 诺和诺德首席执行官Mike Doustdar在声明中表示："Wegovy口服药为患者提供了一个全新、便捷的治疗 选择，可以帮助他们开始或继续他们的减重旅程。"他强调，目前没有其他口服GLP-1疗 ...

Core Insights - Oral GLP-1 weight loss drugs are expected to become a significant product cycle in the biopharmaceutical sector, with market shares projected to reach 24% and 32% by 2030 and 2035, respectively, resulting in market sizes of $22.3 billion and $38.1 billion [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has removed Pfizer's danuglipron from its weight loss drug market model, previously forecasting sales of $1.2 billion and $1.9 billion for 2030 and 2035 [2] - The market share forecast for Eli Lilly's orforglipron has been increased, with expectations that it will capture half of the market share left by Pfizer, while the other half will be distributed among other oral products [2] - Adjusted risk-adjusted sales forecasts for orforglipron are now $1 billion in 2026, $17.2 billion in 2030, and $24.5 billion in 2035, up from previous estimates of $1 billion, $16.5 billion, and $23.5 billion, respectively [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Goldman Sachs maintains its sales forecast for Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide at $5.3 billion, indicating that despite orforglipron's anticipated market advantage, there remains market space for oral semaglutide 25mg due to low likelihood of generic drug entry and extended price protection until orforglipron's patent expiration [4] Group 3: Patient Preferences and Pricing - The obesity market is being segmented by BMI and treatment type (oral vs. injectable), with oral medications likely to attract more patients; approximately 50% of patients may prefer oral medications despite lower efficacy compared to injectables [5] - Initial monthly net prices for the first oral drugs (Eli Lilly's orforglipron and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide 25mg) are expected to be around $650, decreasing to $457 and $308 by 2030 and 2035, respectively, approaching the pricing of injectable drugs [5]