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华能水电(600025):Q3业绩符合预期澜沧江上游项目提供远期空间
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng Hydropower, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching RMB 20.641 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 7.539 billion, up 4.34% year-on-year [7]. - The increase in power generation is attributed to favorable water conditions and the commissioning of new projects, with total power generation reaching 962.66 billion kWh, a 11.90% increase year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights the long-term growth potential from the upstream projects on the Lancang River, particularly the RM hydropower station, which is expected to enhance overall power generation efficiency [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 26.798 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 9.280 billion, reflecting an 11.8% increase [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 0.50, with a projected gross margin of 57.6% [6]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 92.80 billion, RMB 98.44 billion, and RMB 102.40 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 19, and 19 times [7].