2025年底，雅砻江畔的两座大型光伏电站同时投产，与原有的水电站组成了全球最大的水光互补项目。这个"水电+光伏"的组合总装机达600万千瓦，所发 电量相当于500多万个家庭一年的用电需求。 这一项目不只规模大，它更重要的是解决了一个困扰新能源行业多年的难题——光伏发电太不稳定。通过让水电和光伏"打配合"，中国在清洁能源利用上找 到了一个聪明办法。 光伏"看天吃饭" 水电怎么当"充电宝"？ 光伏电站有个大家都知道的缺点——完全依赖天气。太阳好时电多得用不完，阴天雨天发电量就"跳水"，到了晚上更是直接"下班"。这种不稳定的电，电网 其实不太欢迎。 雅砻江项目想了个妙招：让水电站给光伏电站当"好搭档"。新建的光伏电站发的电，会先送到50公里外的两河口水电站"过一遍"。 清洁能源基地破解"西电东送"难题 中国能源分布有个特点：西部发电多，东部用电多。怎么把西部的清洁电安全送到东部去，一直是个麻烦事。 雅砻江这个项目其实是国家整体布局的一部分。国家规划了九个大型清洁能源基地，雅砻江流域是其中之一。这个基地规划的总装机容量很惊人——7800万 千瓦，计划到2035年全部建成。 这种"抱团发展"的模式很聪明。它不再是一个个 ...

投资要点： 上游反内卷，下游反垄断 本报告导读： 电力需求仍在上升趋势，长期看好火电。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 行 业 周 股 票 报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.22 [table_Authors] 2025-12-23 [Table_Summary] 能源局处罚火电串谋报高价，或需看更长远。在中央推行反内卷， 上游煤硅锂等多行业反内卷提价的背景下，能源局处罚了 5 起电厂 串通报价的案例。1、电力的下游制造业类似硅料光伏、电力电缆、 机械装备属于全球市场刚需，出口增长，拉动顺差新高，适度传导 成本给海外，对全国有利；2、适度提高电价，有利储能的发展，可 为 3060 碳中和铺路，实现主席的庄严承诺。3、在全国各省统一市 场的要求下，降电价既不利碳中和，也不利反内卷，还可能错过海 外刚需产品提价的最佳时期。除此外，适度提高电价，还有利节能 降耗，实现碳中和。 第二轮机制电价竞价或容易低于第一轮。1、12 月 15 日江西第二批 增量机制电：风电电量 1.354 亿度，电价 0.365 元/度（首批为 0.375 元/度）；光伏电量 7.49 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) in Tongxin County, Ningxia, showcasing a successful model of targeted poverty alleviation and rural revitalization through strategic investments and partnerships [1][10] Investment and Economic Development - Since 2013, CNNC has invested a total of 3.9 billion yuan in Tongxin County, facilitating a transition from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization [1] - The establishment of Zhonghe (Ningxia) Tongxin Protective Technology Co., Ltd. has led to the creation of over 1,600 stable jobs, directly benefiting more than 300 families [3][2] - The company has expanded from 3 production lines in 2018 to 9 lines, achieving an annual output value exceeding 80 million yuan [3] Agricultural Advancements - The county has developed a standardized and modernized organic goji berry planting base, with a total planting area of 60,000 mu and an annual output value of 300 million yuan [4] - The average yield of dried goji berries is 150 kg per mu, with a loan balance for the goji industry reaching 85.3 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [4] Livestock and Financial Support - CNNC has invested 300,000 yuan to establish a standardized beef cattle breeding park in Dantianling Village, contributing to the standardized and industrialized development of livestock farming [6] - The total loans for beef cattle breeding in Tongxin County reached 2.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [6] Renewable Energy Initiatives - CNNC established Zhonghe (Ningxia) Tongxin New Energy Co., Ltd. in 2019, focusing on renewable energy projects, including the first distributed photovoltaic project in Ningxia with a loan of 192 million yuan [8] - The photovoltaic power station has improved land utilization by 60% and doubled farmers' income [8] Community and Environmental Impact - The "Tongxin Model" has led to significant improvements in local living conditions, with the introduction of clean energy projects creating nearly 1,000 stable jobs [9] - The integration of renewable energy with agricultural practices has enhanced both economic and environmental sustainability in the region [9] Long-term Strategy and Vision - CNNC's approach emphasizes long-term, systematic planning for sustainable development, focusing on "industry-led + strategic cooperation" to foster high-quality growth in Tongxin County [10]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (00916) announced a projected decrease in power generation for October 2025, with a total of 5.6052 million MWh, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.95% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - In October 2025, the company's cumulative power generation reached 62.1519 million MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94% compared to 2024 [1] - Excluding the impact of thermal power, the year-on-year growth in power generation was 11.82%, with wind power increasing by 3.44% and solar power surging by 75.45% [1] Group 2: Monthly Performance - The wind power generation for the month saw a year-on-year decline of 12.14% [1] - In contrast, solar power generation experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 52.86% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng Hydropower, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching RMB 20.641 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 7.539 billion, up 4.34% year-on-year [7]. - The increase in power generation is attributed to favorable water conditions and the commissioning of new projects, with total power generation reaching 962.66 billion kWh, a 11.90% increase year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights the long-term growth potential from the upstream projects on the Lancang River, particularly the RM hydropower station, which is expected to enhance overall power generation efficiency [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 26.798 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 9.280 billion, reflecting an 11.8% increase [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 0.50, with a projected gross margin of 57.6% [6]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 92.80 billion, RMB 98.44 billion, and RMB 102.40 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 19, and 19 times [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [2] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a total revenue of RMB 20.641 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.539 billion, up 4.34% year-on-year [8] - The increase in power generation is attributed to favorable water conditions and the commissioning of new projects, with total power generation reaching 96.266 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [8] - The company is expanding its renewable energy capacity, with significant growth in solar power generation, which increased by 63.8% year-on-year to 4.344 billion kWh [8] - Future growth potential is supported by the construction of new hydropower stations in the Lancang River upstream, enhancing the company's investment value [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 26.798 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 9.280 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [7] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 57.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.7% [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth prospects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant improvements in ecological environment and quality of life in Jiangsu province, driven by the implementation of Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought, showcasing a harmonious coexistence between humans and nature while achieving high-quality economic development [1][4]. Environmental Improvements - Jiangsu has seen a continuous improvement in air quality, with PM2.5 concentration improving by 14.6% in 2024, achieving national air quality secondary standards for four consecutive years [1] - The proportion of national assessment water quality reaching excellent III level has improved by 6.3 percentage points, maintaining high standards for three consecutive years [1] - The water quality of the main stream of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu has remained at Class II for seven consecutive years, with Taihu Lake achieving national good lake status for the first time last year [1] Urban and Rural Development - Nanjing has achieved a 100% excellent rate for provincial assessment water quality, with ecological shoreline ratio increasing to 80.3% and a comprehensive greenway network established [2] - Jiangsu has improved urban green space, with green land rate exceeding 40% and per capita park green space over 16 square meters, creating a livable environment [3] - The province has effectively protected over 1,000 traditional villages and buildings while enhancing public satisfaction with environmental improvements [3] Industrial Transformation - Jiangsu is transitioning from high-energy, high-pollution industries to intelligent manufacturing ecosystems, with significant reductions in traditional industrial pollution [5][6] - The province has implemented a three-year action plan to cultivate future industries, with nine projects recognized as green low-carbon advanced technology demonstrations [6][7] Energy Transition - By October 2024, wind and solar power capacity in Jiangsu reached approximately 8,183 million kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time, accounting for 39.9% of total installed capacity [9] - The province aims for renewable energy to constitute over 15% of total energy consumption by 2025, as outlined in the Jiangsu Renewable Energy Development Plan [9][10] - Jiangsu has also focused on enhancing the efficiency of traditional energy sources, with 251.1 million kilowatts of outdated coal power capacity eliminated from 2021 to 2024 [11][12] Green Energy Consumption - The sales of new energy vehicles in Jiangsu reached 1.28 million units in 2024, marking a 23.7% year-on-year increase, reflecting a growing trend in green transportation [16] - The province has seen a 144% increase in green electricity transactions, totaling 12.7 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, with expectations to exceed 20 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chuaneng Power (000155.SZ), does not engage in energy storage or substation-related businesses, focusing instead on wind and solar power generation, waste-to-energy, urban sanitation integration, lithium mining, and lithium salt processing [1] Company Summary - Chuaneng Power's main business areas include: - Wind power generation - Solar power generation - Waste-to-energy projects - Urban sanitation integration - Lithium mining and lithium salt processing [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a total power generation of 5.075 billion kilowatt-hours from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.80% [1] - The on-grid electricity volume reached 4.994 billion kilowatt-hours, also showing a year-on-year growth of 16.76% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased to 0.199 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 8.29% compared to the previous year [1] Hydropower Segment - The hydropower segment generated 4.857 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.92% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower was 0.188 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is a decrease of 6.47% year-on-year [1] Photovoltaic Segment - The photovoltaic power generation amounted to 0.218 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.54% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for photovoltaic power was 0.439 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 12.55% compared to the previous year [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Green Energy (Renewable Energy) - **Key Companies Mentioned**: Longyuan, Datang Renewable, Jinneng Clean Energy, China Power, CGN New Energy Core Insights and Arguments - **Cash Flow Improvement**: The price of photovoltaic electricity has dropped to 0.22 yuan per kilowatt-hour, prompting green energy companies to invest cautiously in new projects. Since July, accelerated national subsidies have led to some companies receiving 2-3 times their total subsidies from the previous year, improving financial conditions [1][2]. - **Valuation Recovery Potential**: The valuation of the green energy sector has returned to levels seen before the dual carbon commitment. Major companies like Longyuan and Datang Renewable are currently trading below net asset value. The 136 document stabilizes returns on existing projects while increasing competition for new projects, which may drive valuations higher [1][3][4]. - **Impact of Document 136**: This document aims to promote the full marketization of renewable energy, ensuring returns on existing projects while requiring new projects to enter market-based trading and bidding. The competitive bidding results in Shandong in September showed photovoltaic prices at 0.22 yuan and wind power at 0.31 yuan, leading to more cautious investment in new projects by green energy companies [1][5]. - **Future Installation Targets**: From 2025 to 2035, China's average annual new installation capacity is expected to remain between 150 to 200 gigawatts, indicating continued large-scale promotion of renewable energy installations over the next decade [1][6]. - **Dual Carbon Commitment Impact**: Since the dual carbon commitment in 2020, China has shifted directly from coal to a new energy system primarily based on wind and solar power. This strategic decision has made wind and solar significant alternatives to coal and has driven electrification across various sectors [1][7]. - **Trends in Green Energy Installation**: Future installations in green energy are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to the previous five years. The focus will shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in new projects due to the marketization promoted by Document 136 [1][8]. - **Subsidy Distribution**: The acceleration of subsidy payments has significantly improved the balance sheets of green energy companies. From July to August 2024, companies received subsidies that were two to three times the total amount received in the previous year, addressing past subsidy arrears [3][9]. - **Debt Situation**: As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding subsidies across the country are estimated to be between 550 billion to 700 billion yuan, which has led to a high ratio of accounts receivable to net assets for companies like CGN New Energy and Longyuan [3][10][11]. - **Green Consumption System Development**: The green consumption system in China is gradually advancing, with a significant increase in "green certificate" trading, which reached 4,400 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a 360% year-on-year increase. This system helps ensure a certain proportion of green electricity consumption [3][12]. - **Regulations for High Energy Consumption Industries**: In 2025, the government has imposed mandatory green electricity consumption ratios for high energy-consuming industries such as steel and electrolytic aluminum, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [3][13]. - **Market Performance of Major Listed Companies**: Despite the positive factors, major listed companies like Datang Renewable and Longyuan are still trading below net asset value. However, the stabilization of returns on existing projects and accelerated subsidy payments may improve their financial health and drive future valuation recovery [3][4][14].