Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, equity market, and convertible bonds, providing insights into current market conditions and strategies for investment. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Strategies - Small investors are advised to attempt bottom-fishing for small wave operations, while long-term or large funds should reduce portfolio duration and wait for a clear downward turn in interest rates before re-entering [1][4] - The current bond market adjustment is characterized as atypical and not directly related to funding tightness, suggesting that it will not trigger widespread redemptions or credit declines [1][7] - A right-side trading strategy is recommended, focusing on the process of forming a top rather than a sharp peak, with attention to macroeconomic narratives cooling down [1][10] Funding Conditions - The funding outlook for Q3 and Q4 is optimistic, with expectations of continued looseness in the funding environment due to reduced government bond supply pressure and weak loan demand [1][5] - Current funding tightness is viewed as a result of the bond market's decline rather than a cause, indicating that the funding environment will likely remain loose even without significant monetary policy changes [1][5] Equity Market and Convertible Bonds - The upward trend in the equity market is expected to continue, with convertible bonds remaining attractive in a rising stock market context [1][6] - The probability of a significant decline in the equity market is low, as the current rise is driven by liquidity rather than fundamental factors [1][14] Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to market sentiment rather than clear negative factors, with institutions adopting strategies of waiting for better entry points or engaging in wave trading [1][3][17] - Personal investors' experiences with fixed-income asset management products have remained stable, with a shift towards more stable products like insurance asset management or bank deposits rather than equities [1][9] Price Trends and Inflation - PPI is expected to rebound from -4 to around -2, but the momentum for sustained increases is limited, which may affect CPI and the bond market's response [2][11] - The current market's reaction differs from historical patterns, with strong expectations leading to more immediate responses rather than waiting for downstream price increases [1][12] Long-term Investment Considerations - Caution is advised regarding investments in ultra-long credit bonds in the current market environment, as these are more attractive in a bull market [1][19] - The second round of the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF issuance is not expected to trigger significant speculative buying, as the first round has already shown strong demand [1][21] Impact of New Stock Issuance - The impact of new stock issuance on the funding environment is noted, with significant amounts of capital being frozen during subscription periods, leading to short-term funding tightness [1][22] Bottom-Fishing Opportunities - The current market is seen as a potential bottom-fishing opportunity, but the experience may not be favorable due to widespread bullish sentiment without corresponding action [1][23] Other Important Insights - The negative feedback mechanism in the securities market is considered easily disrupted due to strategic adjustments and the current low leverage environment among traditional institutions [1][8] - The government's increased focus on healthy real estate development may lead to further monetary policy stimulation, impacting overall economic trends [1][18]

Core Insights - The report focuses on a trading timing strategy based on win rate, optimizing a multi-signal trading strategy structured around "trend identification, rhythm control, and signal integration" for interest rate futures T and TL [1][11][46] Group 1: Trading Timing Strategies - The report distinguishes between fundamental timing and trading timing, with fundamental timing focusing on macroeconomic factors and trading timing emphasizing market behavior and technical indicators [1][12] - A multi-signal strategy is proposed to enhance robustness, combining various sub-strategies to maintain signal stability and reduce trading frequency [3][45] Group 2: Sub-Strategies Overview - The report introduces several sub-strategies including low-latency trend identification, moment-based timing, single/double moving averages, channel filtering, and nine-turn sequence recognition [29][39][42] - Each sub-strategy is designed to address specific issues such as lagging signals and high-frequency noise, aiming for clearer structures and better adaptability in the interest rate futures market [28][30][38] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results show that the multi-signal strategy for T yielded an annualized return of 8.63% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.04 and a win rate of 70.37%, while TL achieved an annualized return of 23.22% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.78 and a win rate of 80.77% [3][46][48] - The multi-signal strategy effectively mitigated significant drawdowns in February and July 2025, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities during volatile market conditions [47][48]