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泓德基金:上周国内权益市场延续震荡行情,有色金属和石油石化表现较好
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-17 01:30
6月9日-6月13日,全周债市收益率小幅下行,十年国债活跃券在小幅震荡中下行。泓德基金表示,上周 债券市场对中美贸易谈判会谈反应较为钝化,在偏弱的外贸、金融数据以及央行呵护流动性、资金面均 衡偏松下。上周十年国债活跃券250011累计下行1.1bp。上周利率债表现优于信用,信用品种长期限好 于短期限。 泓德基金分析,短期来看,中美谈判形成框架性协议,对债市的利空扰动阶段性解除,上周的社融数据 总量不差,但结构上看政府债和企业债为主要支撑项。从货币政策来看,当前央行呵护流动性的目的较 为明确,资金面整体较为宽松,但前期较为平坦的曲线限制了长端下行空间,不过长端调整压力不大, 未来曲线走陡的概率较高。 上周国内权益市场延续震荡行情,万得全A周跌幅为0.27%,日均成交额维持在1.3万亿元附近。6月13 日在地缘冲突新闻的冲击下,市场有所调整,主要宽基指数平均跌幅在1%左右,全市场成交量放大到 1.5万亿元。行业层面,上周有色金属和石油石化表现较好。 6月13日,广州发布《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案(征求意见稿)》,明确提出全面取消限购、 限售、限价,成为一线城市中首个全面松绑的城市。同日召开的国务院常务会也指 ...
全球资产配置资金流向月报(2025年4月):4月全球固收市场“去美元化”更显著-20250508
Report Title - 4月全球固收市场"去美元化"更显著——全球资产配置资金流向月报(2025年4月) [1] Report Core View - In April 2025, the "de-dollarization" trend in the global fixed-income market became more prominent. The global financial market was significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar index and increased concerns about the US dollar's credit. Global funds showed a clear shift from the US fixed-income market to other regions, especially emerging markets and European markets. Meanwhile, global funds flowed back into the Chinese equity market [3][8][25]. Market Review: Tariff Shocks Intensify Global Market Volatility - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff Plan" and China's countermeasures in early April led to a liquidity crisis in the global stock market, which then rebounded after Trump postponed the tariff implementation. The US dollar index weakened significantly in April, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased marginally. Global stock markets fluctuated sharply, with European and Japanese assets outperforming US dollar-denominated assets. Precious metals rose significantly, while oil and copper prices fell [3][5][8]. - Global funds flowed out of the money market in April, with a net outflow of $31 billion, a significant decline compared to the $35 billion inflow in March. Global funds flowed into developed and emerging stock markets, with inflows of $51 billion and $26 billion respectively. High-yield bonds and emerging market bonds saw outflows [3][18]. Global Asset Classes: Significant Outflow of US Fixed-Income Funds in April - US fixed-income funds experienced a large outflow in April, with a net outflow of $23.234 billion, compared to an inflow of $2.0881 billion in March. In contrast, global equity funds received significant inflows, with China and Europe leading the way [12][25][30]. - The money market saw a large outflow of funds in April, while developed and emerging stock markets continued to attract inflows. The inflow into developed stock markets weakened marginally, while the inflow into emerging stock markets strengthened [18]. - Emerging market equity funds received a large inflow in April, reaching $28.085 billion, a significant increase compared to the $3.22 billion inflow in March. The inflow into the US stock market slowed down [25]. - In April, the inflow into developed and emerging equity markets accelerated. After Trump postponed the tariff implementation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly. The inflow into developed equity markets was $56.47 billion, and the inflow into emerging equity markets was $17.046 billion [39]. Chinese Stocks and Bonds: Global Funds Flow Back into Chinese Equity in April - According to the EPFR fund data, global equity funds flowed into the Chinese market in April, with a net inflow of $20.976 billion, compared to an outflow of $0.895 billion in March. Passive ETFs were the main source of inflow, while active mutual funds continued to outflow [27][60]. - Domestic funds flowed into the Chinese stock market in April, while foreign funds flowed out. Southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, mainly into the non-essential consumer sector [61][63][70]. - Global funds flowed into the technology, real estate, and telecommunications sectors in the Chinese stock market in April, while the financial and consumer staples sectors saw significant outflows [64]. - The inflow of global funds into the Chinese fixed-income market slowed down in April, with a net inflow of $1.523 billion, compared to an inflow of $3.249 billion in March [71]. Country Allocation: Reduced Allocation to US Stocks and Increased Allocation to European, Japanese, and Chinese Stocks in March - In March 2025, global stock market funds reduced their allocation to US stocks and continued to increase their allocation to European stocks. The allocation ratio of global funds to the US stock market decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 61%, while the allocation to European stocks such as the UK, France, Switzerland, and Germany increased [75][77]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the allocation ratio of global funds to the Chinese stock market has continued to rise, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, which is at the 26.4% percentile of historical levels [77]. - In March, emerging market funds increased their allocation to the Chinese and Indian stock markets, while significantly reducing their allocation to the Taiwanese market [78][80]. - As of March 2025, funds from various regions increased their allocation to the Chinese stock market, including global, global (excluding the US), emerging market, Asia-Pacific, and Asia (excluding Japan) funds [83].